ATP Tennis 2019 April 15 Monte Carlo Day One

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I’m closing in on 300 plays and it’s only April 15th. By that pace I’ll be over 600 by then of July and closing in on 900 by the end of the season. I’m at a loss for whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. This is a pace that will eclipse my 2018 total, which ended barely positive. But, it will be less than my 2017, which fell just short of a 1,000 but, was my most profitable year and inspired me to share my plays and process. I have obviously been unable to re-create 2017 and cutting back plays (which should be smart) doesn’t seem to be working. Instead I leave money on the table all the time and then when I push (Andujar and Ruud on Sunday) I lose anyway.

Tough game, this sports handicapping.

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There is an article up @BangtheBook and a podcast up @BallBoyzTennis. Give them a read and a listen. There is a way to bet this tournament without betting Nadal and Djokovic. I’m sure of it.

Day One

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Taro Daniel has the better hold/break stats from 2018 and he’s already played a bunch on clay in 2019. Clay is also Daniel’s best surface. The reason Kohl is favored so heavily would appear to be experience, the fact that while clay may not be his best surface statistically it is the surface he has had the most success on and because Kohl has never lost an opening match in eleven trips to Monte Carlo. The handicap is -4.5 which always makes me nervous but, the moneyline should be a solid parlay piece. Kohl held serve 78% of the time in Marrakech and lost a tight 67,57 match to eventual finalist Pablo Andujar.

It is odd to see Edmund favored over Diego Schwartzman. I guess with Edmund, and maybe Cameron Norrie, we’re going to have to get used to Brits being favored on clay. These two have very similar stats on clay and have split their head-to-head. I’ll pass on this match.

I’m shocked to see Sousa as a dog here. This has to be simple name recognition. Sousa is better on clay across the board and Medvedev won one whole match on clay in 2018. This is a gift at plus money.

Bedene’s best surface is clay, while Albot struggles with it. This line would probably be even higher if Albot hadn’t had such a great run near the end of the hard court season. Albot didn’t cover the +3.5 line in a single one of his clay losses in 2018 and Bedene has decent sized advantages in hold/break numbers across each of the past three seasons. I’ll take Bedene on the spread.

Chardy and Kuku are not descernible on clay and there is no distinct advantage on hard courts in their head-to-head. I think Chardy is a little pricey here and I’ll pass.

I erroneously backed Klizan in Miami thinking he was healthy after a withdrawl in Indian Wells. He was trucked. Is he healthy now? I can only guess he isn’t based on the line. -300 for Delbonis? This seems incorrect. These two have played six times and weirdly enough Delbonis’ two wins were comfortable and most of Klizan’s wins were tight. I’ll pass on this.

Lajovic has beaten Jaziri both times they have played but both win are a little dated. Their hold/break stats in 2018 were pretty similar and what little they have both played on clay in 2019 hasn’t been great. Pass.

Goffin has been a shaky favorite in 2019 and has had a pretty up and down year. He should win this match with ease but I can’t get involved. Once burned, twice shy.

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Much like Sousa, I’m super surprised to see this line. Basil does have an amazing clay title to his name but, outside of that title he has a lot of questionable clay results. Fucs’ is a reliable if unspectacular clay player. His clay stats far exceed Basil’s as does his career record on clay. He’s also beaten Basil three times. This price seems great.

Sonego seems like a kid on the rise but this is his third week in a row playing and he should against Tsonga that maybe he isn’t ready to thump true tour vets quite yet. I don’t think he should be favored quite so much but with Seppi yet to play on clay in 2019 I’ll avoid this match. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seppi win here though.

How do you bet a Fognini match in 2019? You don’t.

Cecchinato has swept the series with Dzumhur on clay. His hold/break stats last year, when he “broke out” were much better than Dzumhur’s and those stats still look solid in 2019 despite the win-loss record. Dzumhur has had a less than stellar 2019 and I expect Cecchinato to blow him away.

Sousa ml, +137
Fucsovics ml, -120
Bedene -3.5, -110
Cecchinato 2-0, -138

Good luck