Variance. Swings. It’s going to course correct, right?
Monday was the perfect example of my season - Bedene was not feeling it, took MTO’s, got meds from a trainer, but tried to fight through and lost. Dzumhur got down 0-4 and quit. The former cost me money in a loss. The latter cost me money because it voided a win. I’d have to go back and count but I think that’s the NINTH retirement this year ALREADY with my guy comfortably leading and his opponent quits, costing me money. Versus ZERO retirements saving me a loss. Fuck sakes. I know I have to cap better but if even half of those complete it’s another $400 in my bankroll.
Wawrinka and Thiem still live and due to the schedule, somehow Stan is going to have played two matches after Tuesday and Thiem will have played none.
Go read the @bangthebook article and go listen to the @ballboyztennis podcast. Those are two things that I am doing right this year.
I apologize there is just no time for a write-up tonight. Briefly:
Norrie is a horrible slump but, Mannarino, on clay, is a great slump buster. Hold/break stats are dramatically in Norrie’s favour.
Djokovic’s clay stats don’t lend themselves to dominance over Kohl but, we all know Djoker’s last two years are not indicative of his career on clay. Additionally, he lost to Kohl during the Sunshine Double and I don’t think there is anyway Djoker is unmotivated for this match. This is a “narrative” based pick but I’m pretty sure Djoker crushes Kohl here.
I went with a Coric/Stan parlay on Sunday and it worked out well. I’ll do the same here. Both should be in for tight battles but both are guys I pegged to go deep this week.
Norrie -2.5, -125
Djoker -4.5, -138
Coric/Wawrinka ml, +142