The holidays are over, thankfully. And hopefully so is my bad streak of betting. What a horrible run. The weekend was a disaster and now I’m deep under-water.
Lots of action on Tuesday though. Plenty of chances to start the recovery.
There was no chance for a podcast over the weekend but, I did pump out some tournament previews for BangtheBook. Please give those a read. I have three outrights this week and after three weeks without a win, I’m due for a bounceback on that front as well.
I have no interest in getting involved with Gojo or Harris. Gojo has less than stellar stats on clay, winning at less than a 40% clip in his career - he even has a losing record at the Challenger level. His hold/break stats at the tour level in 2018 were not impressive and his appearance in Monte Carlo did nothing to suggest improvement. Harris, for his part, has never won an ATP clay match, has a losing record at the Challenger level and is travelling from Taiwan. No thanks.
Lajovic seems a super low price here. He is playing a 20 year old local wild card who has attended a scant three tournaments in 2019. The issue of course is that Lajovic is coming of a loss two days ago in the biggest match of his career. Straight pass for me.
Bet the streak. And Gulbis is riding a hell of a streak. He has lost his last six matches dating back to early February (and he’s only won one set). I’m high on Djere this week, he fits a lot of what I am looking. His hold/break stats are higher across the last three years than Gulbis and he has a history here in Budapest that he should be eager to revive. I’ll parlay the moneyline as the handicap is a tad high at -3.5.
Millman shockingly made the final here last year despite having some really mediocre stats. I’m not sure what to make of his success here and it wouldn’t surprise me if Kecmanovic defeated him. I probably would have jumped on Kec if he was a dog.
PHH is on the rise. His hold/break numbers in 2018 and so far in 2019 are very above-average. He holds a distinct advantage over Duzmhur on the surface. Herbert showed last week in Monte Carlo he can play with the big boys, as he eliminated both Verdasco and Nishikori. Dzumhur only has three wins on the year, he retired last week in Monte Carlo and pulled out in Miami, and he hasn’t put together more than two wins in a row since titling in Antalya last June. This looks like a solid parlay piece.
Goffin -2.5, -120
Djere/PHH ml, -110