ATP Tennis 2019 April 26

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Thanks a whole bunch David Ferrer. Serving at 36,35 all I needed was one hold. Nope. You can retire now. Way to fail yet again to make a dent on Rafa.

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Garin died a sad death. That sucked considering how big of a favorite he went off at. But, Nishikori and Djere have survived and their draws really couldn’t have broken down any better - basically exactly the way I laid it out in the weekly preview.
Hopefully we are on track for a Djere-Coric final in Budapest and a Nadal-less Nishikori final in Barcelona.

Budapest

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I’m going to keep riding Cuevas if books are going to keep making him a dog. Berrettini is obviously playing really well, so I get it. But, the Italian is playing almost unsustainably well. He won 30 of 30 1st serve points against Bedene. That’s absurd. He also won 28 of 33 1st serve points against Kukushkin. That’s 58 of 63, good for 92%. His career average on clay is 72%. Regression is coming hard. Especially against a true clay courter like Cuevas, who routinely break serve around 25% of the time on dirt. Cuevas has broken serve 8 times in 32 return games so far this week…. exactly 25%. Maybe Cuevas shouldn’t be like -200 but, this easily should be Cuevas -125 or even a pick’em at -110. I’ll take the plus money.

I have an outright on Djere and I think it was rightfully placed, as he is a favorite again here in the quarter-finals. He is better across every category I measure - hold/break stats on clay in each of the last three years, career winning percentage on clay, clay win/loss record last year, and he won the most recent meeting between these two, comfortably, last year in Kitzbuhel. Basil played his first match yesterday and squeaked by Gojo in three sets. A match in which Basil was bageled in the second set and faced 14!!! break points. All this against a guy, in Gojo, who is a career .350 player on clay. I’ll get in on Djere as a parlay piece, as spreads are making me plenty nervous this week.

I’m also loving PHH this week. He is rolling. He has put up sets of 63,62, and 62 so far this week. And even in the one tough set he played, 75 over Bachinger, he managed a bagel imbedded in there - coming back from 1-5 down to win six straight games. Just dominating tennis. Now, Bachinger and Gerasimov are not top tier talent but, neither is Balazs. The home crowd may continue to spur Attila along so, I’ll stay away from the spread again but, the stats all point to a Herbert win and I’ll parlay him with Djere.

Coric. All day. I love these Budapest lines. Coric on clay, his best surface, against a guy who hasn’t played in two years before starting qualifying this week? All day. I make this match -350 for Coric. I’m not sure where the -150 line comes from at all. But, I’ll take it. Coric has not quite elite numbers on clay but, somewhere better than ‘above average’. With Coric dropping a set yesterday and concerns with seeds in general in Budapest, I’ll parlay this one too.

Barcelona

I think I’ll just avoid the Rafa matches that are lined like this. Took him on the spread… he didn’t cover. Faded him on the spread…. he broke to end the match and covered by the hook. Fucked me both ways. Pass.

Thiem and Pella have a surprisingly tight head-to-head history. They’ve both won on clay and they’ve both won on hards. What’s also interesting about their head-to-head history is that all four matches have ended in straight sets. I looked at this and immediately thought under. Thiem looked lackluster in Monte Carlo but, he has come out firing here in Barcelona, rolling through all four sets. I like Thiem to win here and I’ll bet on him doing it quickly instead of risking a spread.

I have an outright on Nishikori and I think I rightly predicted his turnaround. The draw has opened up for him with Fog and Zverev both dropping away. I’m sure he can see a final on the horizon and I think he’ll continue to roll here. Like Thiem Kei hasn’t dropped a set and hasn’t really been challenged. I think his experience on clay, his best surface, and his history of success in Barcelona should help him crush RCB. I’ll parlay him with Coric to get plus money.

I don’t want to get involved in Medvedev on clay matches. I don’t get the sudden improvement. I’m loving it, as a big fan of Medvedev but, I don’t get it. Jarry is a clay stalwart (I had TWO separate outrights on him earlier this year) and if he is in form, having put out Zverev AND Dimitrov already, then he may be able to stop Meds. This will be must see breakfast tv but not something I want to bet on, especially with Medvedev as a ridiculous -350 favorite. If you have to bet it, it should be on Jarry simply based on the price.

Cuevas +130
Djere/PHH ml, +140
Thiem/Pella u21.5, -110
Coric/Nishikori ml, +108

Good luck