ATP Tennis 2019 April 27

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Man, so close to a big day. They seem just out of my grasp. Coric had big break points at the end of the second set and couldn’t convert, and he was actually up 4-2 in the first set. Cuevas won the second set, serving up a breadstick, before running out of gas. So close. Still profitable though. It’ll be a long climb at this pace.

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The daily picks may not be doing great but outrights continue to shine. An 18/1 AND a 22/1 BOTH IN THE SEMIS.

I mean, you actually can’t pick it better. In Barcelona Nishikori, at 22/1, had the highest outright odds of the remaining four players - Rafa was 1/1, Thiem was 6/1 and Meds was 18/1. In Budapest Djere, at 18/1, also had the highest outright odds of the remaining four players - Berrettini was 16/1, Kraj was 14/1 and PHH was 11/1.

Like, you couldn’t have picked it better. I’ll pat myself on the back because no one else will do it…. and frankly, it’s all I’m doing right at the moment.

Budapest

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I have an outright on Djere and I’m scared shitless of Berrettini. Berrettini is doing amazing things this week. I wrote yesterday that there was no way he could continue to win 92% of the points on his first serve. Well, he didn’t. He ‘only' won 83%. Jesus. And in doing so, he is easily, easily leading the tournament in aces - 11, 13, and 6. On clay? Those are big numbers. These two had very similar clay court stats in 2018 and Berrettini beat Djere on clay in 2017 pretty handily. I get that a match from 2017, a Challenger match at that, is not that relative but there is little between these two statistically, whether it is career winning percentage, last years hold/break numbers or last years win/loss results. So, the margins are thin. Djere dropped a set to both Basil and Gulbis and could be pretty vulnerable. I wouldn’t normally bet this match - pure stay away. With a future in play and plenty of room to operate with at 18/1 I’m going to get involved on Berrettini. I suspect, if Djere wins that he’ll be a short favorite in the finals and I can either ride it out two or three units in to win 18 or I can hedge further on the dog. Should he lose here, I’ll come out a little ahead (I’m going to go in enough to get back Garin too).

Krajinovic. Suddenly a star on clay. Wild times. Before last week he hadn’t played on quite in over year. Suddenly he is racking up eight wins in nine matches? Crazy stuff. I don’t think his level of competition has been up to snuff though. Nobody in his run to the finals in Antipolis was ranked in the top 150 and his path in Budapest has included #196 Marcora, #135 Gerasimov, an aged #44 Seppi who hasn’t won in months, #40 Radu Albot who scarcely wins on clay and a Borna Coric who was spraying errors all over the map (and may have been looking ahead to bigger events). PHH will be focused on the event at hand. I was early adopter of the PHH bandwagon (outright pick at the 2018 French Open). I think he improving rapidly as both a singles player and a clay courter - his hold/break numbers are comfortably above 100% and while there is a strong chance he loses, +175 seems absurd. I’ll bite.

Barcelona

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Rafa at -275? This seems crazy low for Rafa on clay. These two played on clay three times last year - Rafa was -700 at Monte Carlo, -1600 at Madrid and -450 at the French. Now, he is -275? That’s interesting. Thiem may certainly be in the top five on clay on tour but, his hold/break stats still lag way, way behind Rafa’s. And Barcelona, no matter what happened in Monte Carlo, is still Rafa’s house. The stats all point to Rafa, heavy. The eye test points to Thiem, who played a great match, by all accounts, against Pella yesterday (I did not watch) and who is facing a possibly less than 100% Rafa. I’ll pass on this.

Nishikori and Medvedev have a similar disparity in stats that Thiem and Rafa do. Nishikori so heavily outweighs Medvedev, it gives pause to making a bet here. How can Nishikori be only -125? These two have played three times in the last year and each match has been relatively close. The biggest margin of victory was actually Nishikori on clay. This is obviously a different clay version of Medvedev though. I have to assume, based on the hold/break stats presented and the career records on clay (and in Barcelona) that Medvedev’s run comes to end today. I have a 22/1 on Nishi, at half stake, so I have eleven units to work with here. If things turn for the worse, I don’t think I’ll hesitate to get in live on the Russian. As for pre-match, I am getting down on Kei again.

Berrettini ml, -138, x2 (hedge)
PHH ml, +175
Nishikori ml, -125 (prepared to jump in on Meds live)

Good luck