Ugly day. Salvaged by a nice hedge on Berrettini. I continue to underestimate Kraj and Meds on clay. An expensive mistake.
All three outrights dead. Disappointing to have an 18/1 and a 22/1 in the semis and have neither make the final. Especially when their opponents, in both cases, would not have been the tournament favorites.
There is obviously a dearth of matches to choose from tomorrow and playoff hockey has crunched my writing time….
I’ve basically faded Krajinovic all week. It’s cost me dearly. But, I’m not stopping now. Berrettini’s been here before. He won’t be nervous. He rolled through his final in Gstaad last year and I think he’ll get it done again today.
Oh man, I’m crossing my fingers that Thiem may have finally taken ‘the’ step. He has a history of beating Nadal - and he’s backed it up usually. As he usually backs up most of his big wins. He beat Zverev at the French last year and followed that up by making the final. He beat Nadal last year in Madrid and followed that up by making the final there as well. Now, he did lose to Nadal in Monte Carlo directly after beating Djokovic but, jeez, not too many people have beat them back to back. I think Thiem takes another step and gets the title on Sunday.
Munich and Estoril qualies
I’m on Bolelli in Estoril qualies. He’s done it here before, making the quarter-finals last year, he’s rested as compared to Popyrin who is on his third straight week of European travel, and his hold/break stats on clay are solid as it’s his best surface.
Gunneswaran is not overly experienced on clay. I am on Istomin as a pure Gunneswaran fade. Also, Istomin won in straights yesterday while Gunny struggled with a 21 year old local.
Yanick Maden should roll in his second qualifying match. Rosol is barely a tour level player anymore and Maden is a strong clay player on home soil.
Berrettini ml, +120
Thiem/Bolelli ml, +122
Istomin/Maden ml, +140