ATP Tennis 2019 August 28 US Open Day 3

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Watching Leo Mayer lose was a like a complete repeat of Hurkacz… win the third set tiebreak and then, literally, have nothing left. Sad times.
Also, I tweeted about Gasquet yesterday too. I get that I am having a terrible year but, it is almost time for me to go back through my losses and see how many times I have lost when the player I bet on goes 3/14 on break points like Gasquet did. Just ridiculous that he lost that first set. Kind of the story of my whole year.

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Three of my six futures, including the main one I was hopeful for, went down in flames. Turns out Thiem was never healthy and never really had a chance. Go figure.

As for KK and Tsitty, it is just further proof that the Big Three may remain the Big Three for quite a while. Not a great showing by the next gen in general - all hope lies with Meds and Kyrgios now. And boy is Kyrgios’ quarter WIDE OPEN now. I got him at 80/1 but only for a quarter unit. We’ll see where this goes. Basically no excuse for him not to be seeing Nadal in the semis next Friday (other than his own head).

Day Three

Djokovic predictably did not cover the -10.5 spread in round one. He gets another, even more one dimensional, clay courter in round two. Londero, before this season, had never played a main draw match at aa Slam. He did well at Roland Garros, going four rounds deep on his beloved clay. But, it doesn’t seem likely he can come anywhere close to Djokovic on hard courts. Despite the fact that the moneyline is half the price of the first round, the spread is the same, at -10.5. The difference now though, is the price is +110 as opposed to -150. Djokovic has covered the -10.5 games in a second round match eight times in the last five years, which is double the amount he has done it in the first round. More importantly, he has gotten into double digits his last three US Open second rounds. I think he smokes Londero.

Neither Kudla nor Lajovic are guys who inspire me on hard courts. Kudla is best on grass and has a career winning percentage of 0.277 on hard courts. Kudla has never been past the first round of the US Open before, had a lame, retiring opponent in Tipsarevic to gift him a win on Monday and hasn’t been past the second round of a tournament since Stuttgart in June (9 straight events). So, I know I’m down to fade the American. The question is, can I get behind Lajovic? He has been super hot and cold this year, going to the finals in Monte Carlo and winning Umag but, basically exiting in the first round of every other tournament. Being that the US Open is one of the slower hard courts on tour, Lajovic usually does ok here, as he does in Indian Wells and Miami (9-8 career in IW, 8-7 in Miami and he went to the third round here last year). The courts have apparently been sped up a bit this year (43 tiebreaks in 64 first round matches) . It’s not enough of an edge for me to get involved but, I suspect Lajovic wins ( I have this closed to Lajovic -125/-130).

Lots of options interest me here with Stn. He predictably dropped a set to Sinner, as he is wont to do early in Slams but, that’s just him warming up. The stats comparison with Chardy doesn’t do Stan any favours either, as their hard court hold/break stats are within 6% of each other every year. But, I’ve written this about Stan numerous times, he outplays his stats. He’s 5-0 against Chardy in their career (only dropping one set in a tiebreak), he has a much, much better tiebreak record (54% v 47%), especially in Slams (the one tiebreak loss was in Tokyo, 59% tiebreak record in Slams). Chardy probably shouldn’t have gotten past Hurkacz and I expect Stan to slam him. The 3-0 pays +125 and I like that. The -5.5 pays costs -110 and I am ok with that. And the tiebreak equals yes costs -188 and I am ok with that. Lets’ see Stan win 76,63,64.

Kecmanovic is obviously on the rise and I was on him 3-0 in round one. While Lorenzi is obviously on the downswing and somehow got pushed to five sets by a teenager I’ve never heard of. But, the 3-0 actually costs juice now and the spread is -7.5. That means you need 63,63,64 to cover. Kec would have to serve first twice, get the break in the first seven games twice and/or find a set where he gets a double break. Lorenzi is not complete garbage - clay is his preferred surface and this is a slow hard court; not to mention he did get through qualifying last week. This seems a little steep for me and I’ll pass.

I missed out on Opelka in the first round and I’m still a little pissed about it. Opelka owns a magical 3-0 record against Koepfer and they are all within the last 18 months. Very impressive. Especially considering the way Koepfer is playing right now. The issue I have with Opelka here is in those three wins he is 4-0 in tiebreaks. That record belies a career tiebreak record that is still, weirdly, below 0.500 (he lost one against Fog too). I expect Opelka gets this done but, I’m not sure he covers the spread and I am guessing he drops a set, probably in a tiebreak (tiebreak yes is -800!!!). An Opelka 3-1 bet pays +300 and is probably worth $50.

I must be a sucker a punishment (well, fuck, that’s pretty obvious). I’ve bet against this Brooksby kid three straight times now and he’s cost me money every time. Consider this ‘going to the well’. He can’t keep this up. Basil is a clay guy, predominantly, and has done well here in the past (7-5 record, 4th rd last year) on the slower hards. He usually takes care of who is supposed to take care of, going 18-4 in the last two years against guys outside the top 100. The four losses were mostly to guys just outside and usually involved a tiebreak or two (Daniel Brands 107, Kudla 109, and Vesely 103… Andreozzi 167). I expect he’ll end the Cinderella run here and with nothing appealing to parlay it with I’ll take the -5.5.

I don’t really see an edge between Lopez and Nishioka. I didn’t expect Lopez to be here and their hard court stats are very similar. In 2018 and 2017 their hold/break numbers were almost identical, they are both just over 0.500 in tiebreaks and both are just over 0.500 on hard courts in their career. There is very little between them and I think I’ll just pass.

It’s ridiculous that Dellien got through the first round. Kwon had to retire and based on the first two sets, he was probably never right to begin with. This is a complete mismatch on paper and the price reflects that. But, -10.5 is a massive, massive number, especially for anyone not of the Big Three. Meds has only ever covered that number twice - at the Aussie versus Lloyd Harris and on Monday, just barely, against Gunneswaran. I suspect he’ll get close but, eleven games is just huge. The 3-0 is juiced to -450 so that is out too. Pass. Like Djoker, this is a situation where the 3rd set handicap may come into play if the second set is tight.

Federer has funnily enough only played Dzumhur twice, both at Slams. He has never dropped more than four games in a set. Much like Wimbledon, Fed dropped his opening set, then cruised. He crushed Jay Clarke in round two at Wimbledon and I expect something akin to that today. Dzumhur has been in rough shape all summer. He drops opening sets almost every match and has to fight back (I won this kind of a bet against Hoang and got greedy with Benchetrit +4.5 instead of first set ). I’ll parlay Fed 3-0 and play Fed 1st set 63 and Fed 62 for half units.

I don’t see an edge with Evans and Pouille. It’s always bizarre to me that two guys in their 30’s who have both spent the vast majority of their career in the top 100 have never played but, here we are. Evans’ numbers on hards are great and if anything, I could see this going over the total. It’s also listed at only 38.5. I’ll pass just because I suck at totals but, I expect at least four sets (four sets exactly pays +162 if you are interested).

I’m all over PCB here. He rolls. A nice parlay piece, especially considering he always apt to drop a set.

I am not comfortable betting Goffin and haven’t been for sometime. The moneyline and spread are huge and the only play I see here is if Barrere somehow steals a set. If he takes the first or second set, a live bet on Goffin 3-1 should be a slammer.

I have no idea what to do with Coric here. I really feel like he wins just based on Dimitrov’s rough form this summer. Of course, Coric hasnt been much better, having a real down 2019 spring/summer. He has only won back to back matches four times since Miami (last hard court swing in March). I think Coric is going to be much more likely to handle two matches in a row than Dimitrov though; Dimitrov has only won back to back matches three times since the Aussie Open! Yet, Dimitrov is the one taking money this morning. I think I’ll wait and see how they start. If Coric looks ok but, goes down a break early (or even if Dimitrov starts on serve and no one breaks) I should be able to get Coric as a dog in the first set live.

I have no read on who will win Cuevas vs Maj. Cuevas is a serving machine who got lucky that he played an out-form/out-of-shape/out-of-tennis Sock in round one. While Maj survived three tiebreaks against Jarry, who has somehow not transitioned to hard courts at all. I suspect this will go over and the tiebreak yes is only -150, which will be my angle here.

DeMinaur should roll. Garin is a predominantly clay player and he was lucky to survive five sets in the first round. This is an easy parlay piece to put with PCB. On hard courts ADM owns 20+ percentage advantages in the hold/break categories and he career winning rate on hards is not even in the same area code as Garin. ADM is also good in tiebreaks at a super young age and as stated above, there is an increased number of tiebreaks this year.

Nishikori obviously looked dominant against Trung but, with the retirement it is hard to tell if that was due to injury on Trung’s part. Looking at Meds price, Fed’s price, Djoker’s price, etc. Nishikori should be ALOT higher than -600. My guess is this due to Nishikori’s habit of dropping sets in Slams. Much like Goffin, I would love to see Nishikori drop a set or two and bet him 3-1 or live in the fifth set.

Djokovic -10.5, +110
Wawrinka 3-0, +125
Wawrinka -5.5, -110
Wawrinka tb yes, -188
Opelka 3-1, +300 x0.5
Basilashvili -5.5, -125
Fed 3-0/PCB ml/ADM ml, +106
Fed 6-3 1st set, +225 x0.5
Fed 6-2, 1st set, +400 x0.5
Cuevas tb yes -150

Good luck