ATP Tennis 2019 August 29 US Open Day 4

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Man, did I read Fed wrong. Slow starts seems to be a common thing for him at the US Open, regardless of opponent. And Djoker doesn’t seem particularly healthy, so, fingers crossed someone a little better than Londero, like, say, Stan Wawrinka or Daniil Medvedev can really push him in the coming rounds.

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Three futures remain… well, because there was barely any tennis on Wednesday. I like all the options I still have on the board though.

Thursday, despite all the matches looks like one of the least appealing set of lines I have seen in a while. I’ll re-cap the postponed matches first.

Day Four

Neither Kudla nor Lajovic are guys who inspire me on hard courts. Kudla is best on grass and has a career winning percentage of 0.277 on hard courts. Kudla has never been past the first round of the US Open before, had a lame, retiring opponent in Tipsarevic to gift him a win on Monday and hasn’t been past the second round of a tournament since Stuttgart in June (9 straight events). So, I know I’m down to fade the American. The question is, can I get behind Lajovic? He has been super hot and cold this year, going to the finals in Monte Carlo and winning Umag but, basically exiting in the first round of every other tournament. Being that the US Open is one of the slower hard courts on tour, Lajovic usually does ok here, as he does in Indian Wells and Miami (9-8 career in IW, 8-7 in Miami and he went to the third round here last year). The courts have apparently been sped up a bit this year (43 tiebreaks in 64 first round matches) . It’s not enough of an edge for me to get involved but, I suspect Lajovic wins ( I have this closed to Lajovic -125/-130).

Lots of options interest me here with Stan. He predictably dropped a set to Sinner, as he is wont to do early in Slams but, that’s just him warming up. The stats comparison with Chardy doesn’t do Stan any favours either, as their hard court hold/break stats are within 6% of each other every year. But, I’ve written this about Stan numerous times, he outplays his stats. He’s 5-0 against Chardy in their career (only dropping one set in a tiebreak), he has a much, much better tiebreak record (54% v 47%), especially in Slams (the one tiebreak loss was in Tokyo, 59% tiebreak record in Slams). Chardy probably shouldn’t have gotten past Hurkacz and I expect Stan to slam him. The 3-0 pays +125 and I like that. The -5.5 pays costs -110 and I am ok with that. And the tiebreak equals yes costs -188 and I am ok with that. Lets’ see Stan win 76,63,64.

Kecmanovic is obviously on the rise and I was on him 3-0 in round one. While Lorenzi is obviously on the downswing and somehow got pushed to five sets by a teenager I’ve never heard of. But, the 3-0 actually costs juice now and the spread is -7.5. That means you need 63,63,64 to cover. Kec would have to serve first twice, get the break in the first seven games twice and/or find a set where he gets a double break. Lorenzi is not complete garbage - clay is his preferred surface and this is a slow hard court; not to mention he did get through qualifying last week. This seems a little steep for me and I’ll pass.

I must be a sucker a punishment (well, fuck, that’s pretty obvious). I’ve bet against this Brooksby kid three straight times now and he’s cost me money every time. Consider this ‘going to the well’. He can’t keep this up. Basil is a clay guy, predominantly, and has done well here in the past (7-5 record, 4th rd last year) on the slower hards. He usually takes care of who is supposed to take care of, going 18-4 in the last two years against guys outside the top 100. The four losses were mostly to guys just outside and usually involved a tiebreak or two (Daniel Brands 107, Kudla 109, and Vesely 103… Andreozzi 167). I expect he’ll end the Cinderella run here and with nothing appealing to parlay it with I’ll take the -5.5.

I don’t really see an edge between Lopez and Nishioka. I didn’t expect Lopez to be here and their hard court stats are very similar. In 2018 and 2017 their hold/break numbers were almost identical, they are both just over 0.500 in tiebreaks and both are just over 0.500 on hard courts in their career. There is very little between them and I think I’ll just pass.

It’s ridiculous that Dellien got through the first round. Kwon had to retire and based on the first two sets, he was probably never right to begin with. This is a complete mismatch on paper and the price reflects that. But, -10.5 is a massive, massive number, especially for anyone not of the Big Three. Meds has only ever covered that number twice - at the Aussie versus Lloyd Harris and on Monday, just barely, against Gunneswaran. I suspect he’ll get close but, eleven games is just huge. The 3-0 is juiced to -450 so that is out too. Pass. Like Djoker, this is a situation where the 3rd set handicap may come into play if the second set is tight.

I don’t see an edge with Evans and Pouille. It’s always bizarre to me that two guys in their late 20’s or early 30’s who have both spent the vast majority of their career in the top 100 have never played but, here we are. Evans’ numbers on hards are great and if anything, I could see this going over the total. It’s also listed at only 38.5. I’ll pass just because I suck at totals but, I expect at least four sets (four sets exactly pays +162 if you are interested).

I’m all over PCB here. He rolls. A nice parlay piece, especially considering he always apt to drop a set.

I am not comfortable betting Goffin and haven’t been for sometime. The moneyline and spread are huge and the only play I see here is if Barrere somehow steals a set. If he takes the first or second set, a live bet on Goffin 3-1 should be a slammer.

I have no read on who will win Cuevas vs Maj. Cuevas is a serving machine who got lucky that he played an out-form/out-of-shape/out-of-tennis Sock in round one. While Maj survived three tiebreaks against Jarry, who has somehow not transitioned to hard courts at all. I suspect this will go over and the tiebreak yes is only -150, which will be my angle here.

DeMinaur should roll. Garin is a predominantly clay player and he was lucky to survive five sets in the first round. This is an easy parlay piece to put with PCB. On hard courts ADM owns 20+ percentage advantages in the hold/break categories and he career winning rate on hards is not even in the same area code as Garin. ADM is also good in tiebreaks at a super young age and as stated above, there is an increased number of tiebreaks this year.

I don't bet Gilles Simon matches. He is the most unpredictable player in my database. He is pretty much a bet as a dog, fade as a favorite guy which makes me leery of getting on Rublev here. If healthy and rested, Rublev is the better player but, neither guy here is well known for holding leads. I suspect you could probably bet Simon pre-match and find a way to trade out green on Rublev sometime before the end of the second set. Also, with a total of only 37.5 I expect an over but, again, with these two dudes, I could also see some 62 sets leading to a four set under. In short, avoid this match.

Hoang doesn’t have a deep history against the top 50. His one win and his one close loss came against Verdasco and Gilles Simon, not surprisingly two of the most unpredictable players on tour. When he plays cream of the crop guys like Monfils, at Roland Garros, he was crushed. I’m not sure Kyrgios covers the -6.5, as I could see some tiebreaks here (Kyrgios finds a way to play them all the time) but, Kyrgios is also amazing in tiebreaks (especially for a 24 year old. I’ll take the Kyrgios 3-0.

I expected big things from Berrettini this summer but, it’s been hard to tell when he has been healthy (he’s played one match since Wimbledon). I’m not sure he can back up that win in round one and maybe it is best to wait for some slower hard courts on the fall Asian swing to back this kid. Thompson is also a guy I have a hard time reading (see: the grass season). The results are all over the board with this guy, success on grass but, terrible on fast hards? Neither guy has a track record on hards and neither guy has done anything on this North American summer hard court swing. I’ll just pass on this.

Kukushkin is not really a consistent top 50 player but, he is one now. And Popyrin three wins agains the top 50 this year, an injured Thiem, who retired mid-match, #39 PHH, who was at the beginning of a massive losing streak, and #50 PCB, maybe his best win of the year, at Wimbledon in straight sets. That is not a deep history that bodes well for him on Thursday. Kukushkin is 17-9 in his career at the US Open and in opposition to Popyrin, the only loss Kukushkin has to someone outside the top 80 this year, despite being having 19 losses, was too a recovering Krajinovic. Kraj was #113 at the time and is now properly back to #53, so even that loss by Kukushkin may not be that bad. I think Kukushkin, despite his mid-card status will be a little too much for Popyrin. This is also Popyrin’s sixth straight week in action - not something that inspires me, especially when week six forces him to play five sets instead of three. Neither player plays an exorbitant number of tiebreaks and so, I’ll take Kuku -2.5.

Monfils should roll. I backed him on the spread in round one and I’m riding that train again. He is a complete mis-match for a big-server who isn’t even on the level of someone like Isner (Monfils is 7-4 against Isner and 4-0 in the last five years) and with the match being played on a slower surface.

Shapo has been pretty inconsistent in 2019 and this is a potential letdown spot for him after winning in a smokeshow against fellow countryman (and potential usurper of Canadian media attention) FAA on Monday. Shapo is a far better player than Laak, especially considering Laak went five sets and three tiebreaks deep in his match. But, all that looks factored into the line, with Shapo at -1000 and -7.5. Pass.

Sonego and Andujar played earlier this year on clay, at altitude, which should approximate the cool, slower hard court conditions in New York (clay is slower than slow hards but, played a little faster at altitude). And Sonego really trucked him. Sonego seems to be at this best on clay (Kitzbuhel and Monte Carlo) and while Flushing Meadows may be playing faster than last year it is still by no means a quick hard court. Since his breakout in Marrakech he hasn’t really had any bad losses other than the two immediately following his title in Antayla. He’s on a pretty solid upswing. Andujar, for all his 33 years, has been to Flushing Meadows six times. I think Sonego gets this done, continuing his hot streak, after he straight setted Granollers. He served 64%, threw up 10 aces, and generated 10 break points. If he comes close to that again, he’ll put Andujar away in three or four sets.

How is Bublik/Fabbiano a second round match? Pass.

I don’t know how Zverev will get this done. But, I’m pretty confident he will. He makes the easy look brutally hard, as he dropped two sets from a two set lead AGAIN on Tuesday… he has done this so many times (see Chardy at the Aussie, Millman at the French, Lajovic at the French) and yet it’s a new thing too because last year he was splitting first and second sets in every Slam match. Importantly, Zverev has handled Tiafoe three times and each time he beats him, he doesn’t need tiebreaks to do it; he breaks the American plenty. I imagine this match will see four or five sets but, the spread is low enough that Zverev will still cover.

I’m a sucker for a motivated Paire. It’s hard to tell if he ever is but, given that he didn’t WIN on Saturday I’m guessing we get one more decent match out of him. He trucked Schnur on Tuesday, generating FOURTEEN break points in fourteen return games, and he’s beaten Bedene three straight times on multiple surfaces. Importantly, he beat Bedene on quick courts in Australia and slow courts in Morocco. Tuesday’s win for Bedene was his first on hard courts at the ATP level in 2019 and it was against a Challenger level clay courter. This is a big step up and I think Paire gets it done, ugly.

DSS rolled on Tuesday and he should roll here. Gerasimov is a bit of a one trick pony who usually excels on indoor hards. He got a gift of a first round match and for a guy who runs about 50% in tiebreaks he got kind of lucky to win two of them to get through that match. DSS has improved rapidly on hards and has expressed his love for hard courts recently (see Los Cabos, where he was a successful 8/1 future for this tennis bettor). Gerasimov is simply a Challenger level guy who has never won a Slam match before Tuesday. I expect the stage will be a tad big and DSS should break him pretty often. I like the spread and the straight sets.

I don’t have an opinion on Sandgren and Pospisil. I didn’t see either one of them winning in round one and I don’t see an edge here. Neither guy has anything other than average stats on hard courts and if anything, I lean to Sandgren just because he has accomplished a few things in the past two years (Aussie Open, Houston, Auckland). Pass.

Isner has owned Struff in the past, 3-0. But, Struff is improving pretty rapidly while Isner is headed straight downhill, Newport production notwithstanding. Their hard court stats are almost exactly the same in the past two years and this feels like an easy avoid. Especially with a total of 43.5 that requires them to split sets at some point. Pass.

Isner and Nadal should both roll but, the price seems right on both. They’ll be hard pressed to cover their spreads but, yet should win comfortably. Neither 3-0 bets are within range for a bet either. So, easy passes there.

I so want to bet Chung here. But, his up and down health just makes it too hard, especially with him as a favorite. He lost early and pulled out of his last two Challenger events before the Open and while he cruised through qualies, he didn’t play anyone. Verdasco will be by far his best opponent in his comeback and I am pretty surprised Verdasco is a dog. I feel like this is Verdasco or pass.

Wawrinka 3-0, +125
Wawrinka -5.5, -110
Wawrinka tb yes, -188
Opelka 3-1, +300 x0.5
Opelka/ADM/PCB +125
Basilashvili -5.5, -125
Cuevas tb yes -150
Kyrgios 3-0, -138
Kukushkin -2.5, -120
Monfils -6.5, -110
Sonego ml/Paire ml, -116
Zverev -3.5, -110
DSS 3-0, +100