ATP Tennis 2019 August 30 US Open Day 5

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Damn near nailed the correct score for the Wawrinka match. Just missed him grabbing that tiebreak. That kind of read on things make me feel “close” though. Paire served for the match at 40*-0 in the fourth set and somehow got broken and then gave away the match. Again, feels “close”. We’ll see if I can pick up any consistency.

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Bankroll remains disgusting and it will take a monumental effort to fix it but, we’ll see.

Meds, Kyrgios and ADM all survived to round three. Friday should be interesting, at least, or especially, for ADM.

Day Five

I know Djokovic looked vulnerable on Wednesday night and there are injury concerns and maybe motivational issues but, I think this might be a little bit of a ‘get right match’ for the Serbian #1. Kudla is a pretty marginal player at this level. He had won exactly ONE second round Slam match in his career before Wednesday. And it was, maybe not surprisingly, against Alex Zverev, back in 2015. He’s got eight second round Slam losses; they had been by an average of 7.5 games and he had won a total of four sets. So, this is pretty unchartered territory for Kudla. He is also predominantly a faster surface player, winning over 50% of his grass matches but, coming in around 25% on hards and clay. His one deep trip at a Slam, when he beat Zverev was on grass at Wimbledon. When it comes to hards he is better at faster venues there too - his most consistent Slam being the Aussie where he has made the second round in three of the last four years. I think even a Djoker at minimal levels is going to push Kudla around, as he did at Wimbledon this year. If he can dominate Kudla on grass, he should destroy him on slower hards. For all the consternation about Djoker he still hasn’t dropped a set and he’s baked up a bagel against each guy he has played. He’s only 4-5 at covering the -8.5 in the third round of Slams in the last three years but, the five no-covers have some real similarities - all three years at Wimbledon he failed to cover the -8.5 in the third round… quick surface. The fourth and fifth failures to cover were on clay to top 20 talents in RBA and DSS. This is a hard court match, on a slower surface, against a guy who is far from a top 20 talent. Djoker’s won by 9 games in round one and 8 games in round two here this week. I think he can get to 9 against Kudla but, the price of -150 kind of sucks. I’ll look to get in on Djoker live.

Stan opens with the same line as Djoker. What? That either means Djoker is underpriced over Stan is way overpriced… and I lean hard to the former. Now, Stan has kind of owned Lorenzi, 3-0 with no lost sets but, this isn’t really the same Stan is it? And he’ll be playing on back to back days after going four sets in both rounds one and two. The 3-0 hasn’t been a solid bet for him and really, it’s too expensive to even be a parlay piece. I don’t see how Stan loses but, I also don’t see a way to back him. Let’s just hope he doesn’t expend too much energy and can push the shit out of Djoker on Sunday. Pass.

I have no feel for this Koepfer guy. He’s a 25 year old journeymen who plays to moderate success on the Challenger tour and basically just fails at qualifying for Slams every year and never has enough ranking points to enter any ATP tour events (he’s got three main draw matches this year and two of them were from Wimbledon where he got direct entry due to some withdrawals). This is a true case of an out of nowhere run. I mean he didn’t even win his first Challenger title until this past grass season. Anyway, he followed up that Ilkley title with a finals run in Aptos earlier this month and then he has cruised through FIVE rounds here in New York. So, maybe we should have kind of seen this coming? He only dropped one set in Ilkley (in the final) and he only dropped two sets in Aptos (the final). He only dropped one set in qualies, to Nic Mahut, and literally blew Ryan Harrison of the court. In the main draw he has dispatched clay stalwart Jamue Munar and an injured Reilly Opelka, so it’s harder to know what to make of those. You could say he was lucky to win both - he threw up 88!!! unforced errors against Munar and only served 59%, yet somehow won and Opelka was obviously in discomfort throughout their match. I would love to back Basher here but, he isn’t exactly blowing anyone’s doors off. He went five sets with Fucs and four sets with Brooksby. So, I’ll just pass on this one, although the o37.5 looks tempting.

Has Medvedev finally run out of gas? He gets to play the night match, so, he gets just about as much rest time as could be afforded him but, it’s tough to tell if it will help. Medvedev is the straight up better player on hard courts and his hold/break numbers on the surface are nearing elite levels (86+31=117% in 2019 at the moment). He also wins on hard courts about 67% of the time. Medvedev has very limited Grand Slam experience, he is only 13-11 for his career at all Slams but, his best success came at the Aussie this year (another hard court). If he comes out healthy and fit, and manages to not get pulled into a fifth set, he should be fine. Lopez is 37 and in semi-retirement; he hasn’t been past the third round of a Slam since the US Open four years ago. He’s gone four sets in both rounds this week and won’t be overly fresh either. I like Meds to win here.

I’m not touching Federer here. His price is massively depressed, he has dropped the first set each match this week, and he is playing bright and early at 11am. I can’t remember the last time that was the case. I can’t imagine Dan Evans actually wins but, like Wawrinka, I don’t see a way to bet Federer here. There is real comparable for a 38 year old playing elite level tennis at the final Slam of a season with 37 matches under his belt. It’s not last year but, it is supposed to approach 30 degrees Celsius tomorrow and it’ll be right at the noon hour. Fed has dropped surprising matches at each of the last two US Opens and I just don’t like this match. I will look to back Evans at +2.5 in the third set if he is down two sets to love. That should be around -150.

I feel better about things when I don’t go near Goffin matches. Goffin and PCB are within 2% in hard court hold/break stats in the last two years and I just don’t see an edge here. They are both coming off relatively successful tourney appearances in Winston-Salem and Cincy and they both looked solid on Wednesday (PCB struggled to start but, finished 62,60). This is an easy pass.

So, I’m getting on the Dimitrov train. He has better stats than Maj in every category I look at. I know he is not the same Dimitrov, necessarily, that put those stats together but, he won a solid round one match and he got to spend two days practicing in New York. Maj had never beaten a top 100 player in an ATP match and he just went through a gruelling five set match on Thursday. I think the Pole might be the one guy in play effected by the weather delay and I think Dimitrov can pounce. One other weird thing in Dimitrov’s favour is Maj’s height. Maj is generously listed at 6 feet exactly. Dimitrov has only lost to two people 6 feet tall or under in the last two years (despite all his terrible results), Kei Nishikori and Dusan Lajovic.

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150/1. I knew this roadblock would be here and I capped it at about a pick’em. Nishikori has opened as a -200 favorite and will probably take money over night. I put most of that down to name recognition. Look at the stats - ignoring 2017 when DeMinaur was a teenager. ADM has equal or better hold/break numbers on hard courts the last two years, he already has a 62% winning percentage on hard courts at 20 years old (incredible) and he has a positive tiebreak record (also incredible at his age). In fact, ignore the totals in the tiebreaks (simply because Kei is almost a decade older) and look at percentages - they both are winning exactly 59% of their tiebreaks. They even had similar 2018’s on this surface. Kei was pushed to four sets, out of nowhere on Wednesday, by Bradley Klahn and ADM cruised. ADM has only dropped one set, a tiebreak to PHH, and I like him to really push Nishikori. I’ll hold off on hedging for now and maybe look to hit Nishikori if ADM gets up big. Let’s go DeMinaur.

Dimitrov/Medvedev ml, -134

Good luck