ATP Tennis 2019 August 31 US Open Day 6

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Fed looked back to normal, eh? Dimitrov looked shaky but, survived, as expected and DeMinaur keeps winning my heart, on hard courts, against guys less than 6”6.

Kudo’s to Meds too, what a tight, fun match.

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Big win for ADM! Big win for Meds! Bring on Kyrgios tonight!

Day Six

I guess I’m in on Nick. He’s playing great. He’s focusing his energy instead of freaking out about extraneous stuff. Rublev is a talented guy but, Kyrgios is a class above when he wants to be. I’ve written before that it’s hard to make statistical judgements for Kyrgios matches because he plays so many throw away matches that his stats are rather average. So, you almost have to clean the slate with him each week. He’s holding serve at 89% in his two matches so far, which is about right for him (26/29) but, most importantly for Kyrgios, and what you can use to judge his engagement is his break rate. He always serves well. When he loses, a lot of times it’s because he doesn’t try on return and settles for flipping coins in tiebreaks. Other than his blow-up against Edmund his last three losses have involved him dropping middle set tiebreaks. This week he’s only had to play one tiebreak and he hasn’t dropped a set. He’s breaking serve 33% of the time, which is a massive step up from his usual level in the mid-teens. He seems engaged. And he is playing a contemporary #nextgen (if Kyrgios can still be included in that group) and should want to lay the smack down. It’s hard to asses Rublev - he played a Tsitty who threw up almost 90 unforced errors and Simon was obviously compromised. I think this is a bit of a step up and I think Nick rolls. Nick -2.5, -125 looks great.

Neither Berrettini nor Popyrin have much history of success on hard courts at the ATP level, both winning at a less than 40% clip. Of course, that could be due to a small sample size, as Berrettini is 23 but played the majority of his formative years on clay and Popyrin is only 20. Either way, their hard court hold/break stats also don’t show a wide discrepancy with only a 2% difference in 2019. I lean a little to Matteo based on a tougher path to get there (Popyrin has only played a clay centric player in Delbonis and Kukushin, while Berre had to play Gasquet and Thompson) as well as a better ‘go for it’ attitude (Popyrin’s two opponents so far have averaged about half as many winners as unforced errors, while Matteo is pretty close to a 1:1 ratio). I’ll pass just because the line seems kind of high.

Oh, man, I so want to back Monflls here. He is fun to bet on when he is ‘on’. However, while he has a statistical advantage over Shapo on hard courts (and it’s pretty big in some cases, like 2019 break percentage) Shapo is playing some inspired tennis under the new tutelage of Mikael Youzhny. He made the semis in Winston-Salem last week and hasn’t dropped a set here yet, losing only a combined 18!!! games across six sets. It’s incredible. He absolutely smashed fellow Canuck and #nextegenner FAA in round one. I think Monfils is the better player but, sometimes it’s the hotter player that pulls through. The over might be a good look here.

How is Andujar and Bublik a third round match??? Avoid.

I have to keep backing Zverev. It’s true, he struggles mentally in five setters. I heard a ridiculous stat (that I have yet to verify) that Zverev has lost 14 of 19 fourth sets played in his career. That’s ridiculous. He makes every match a struggle. But, he is statistically so far ahead of these opponents that I make the price like -600 or -700 in these matches. So, I’ll keep backing him. I’ll just have to avoid the handicaps and find a parlay partner. Bedene is shit lucky to be in the third round, having been gifted a fourth set from triple match point down ON RETURN. I suspect Zverev might actually win a fourth set on Saturday (or not need one, heaven forbid).

DSS and Sandgren are another statistical mis-match. DSS is better than Tennys in every category, across the board. Better hold/break numbers on hard courts every year, with specifically big advantages in break percentage which is helpful on slower hards; better tiebreak numbers; better career winning percentage on hards; and finally just coming in hotter with a title in Los Cabos and a decent showing in Cincy. I like DSS to win comfortably here.

Cilic owns a warped 8-3 head-to-head here. And I say warped because Cilic won the first five meetings. They are 3-3 in the last three years. And while an over here feels a bit on the nose, four of those last six matches have included a tiebreak and both guys are known for playing a ton of tiebreaks in general. I don’t see a statistical edge here with these guys both having just over 100% hold/break numbers, very similar win percentages on hard courts and very similar tiebreak records. I’ll even pass on the over just because it’s 44.5 which seems high considering, despite all the tiebreaks in their past, three of their last four hard court meetings have finished in straights. Pass.

I would love to back Chung here. In some way shape or form. But, given his health issues lately… and after making an epic comeback to win in five sets… there is a real chance he gets trucked by Nadal. Chung’s weakness is his serve and Nadal breaks serve at an unprecedented level. Like, over 30% of the time on hard courts. Chung could be in for a short outing. The spread is -8.5 and like Djoker on Friday night, I’ll wait and see how the match starts and then probably hit Nadal live in some way.

Kyrgios -2.5, -125
Zverev/DSS ml, -142

Good luck