Winner, winner. Fun to finally hit another decent sized future and fun to finally be back on hard courts where I feel most comfortable capping tennis. The vast majority of the, like, 13 outrights I’ve hit in 2019 are on hard courts.
The Canadian Open is pretty stacked and there are numerous matches every day, so let’s jump right in.
I have three outrights this week with varying unit sizes; check out BallBoyz tennis for the podcast and BangTheBook for the written preview.
Tsonga is better than Struff in every statistical category on hard courts. He has a better combined hold/break number in each of the past three years and most importantly, this year, has a better break percentage on hard courts. Tsonga is a winning tiebreak player, Struff is not, and Tsonga wins on hard courts almost 70% of the time while Struff is under 0.500 on this surface. Struff has never been to Canada for a match before and Tsonga has a strong history here. I like Tsonga to get the win here.
I’m not sure there is an edge to be found in Djere/Garin. Two pretty classic clay players who win about 20% of the time on hards. Please, avoid this match.
An injured Raonic? A disinterested Pouille? Raonic pulled up lame against Gojowczyk last week and has never really been able to string together multiple strong showings in a row due to health. Pouille Other than winning a Challenger event in France, Pouille has literally done nothing since the Aussie Open. Raonic is a pretty massive favorite here and given his track record in Canada, I feel like that is a tad too high. I’ll pass on this.
Check out those stats. Every category. These two dudes are almost identical. One is travelling from Mexico and one is travelling from Austria. This feels like an easy match to avoid.
Basilashvili and Lajovic are two guys travelling from Europe who prefer clay to hards. Basher has the better hard court stats , both in hold/break numbers and career winning percentage and took last week off, while Lajovic played in Kitzbuhel. Basher has a 3-1 h2h advantage and is a winning tiebreak player. I’ll back him just like Tsonga.
I don’t have enough data on two largely Challenger level players in Schnur and Tommy Paul. I’ll pass on this.
Mannarino is 4-0 against Kukushkin and Kuku is travelling from Mexico, while Mannarino is only coming from Washington. I missed the best number here, with Mannarino sitting at plus money as late as last night. I’ll take Mannarino on the moneyline.
Stan and Grigor apparently play all the time in opening rounds now. This is the fourth meeting at a big event in the first round in the last year. In all they have played nine times and four of those, including three of the last five, have gone over the total. Wawrinka rarely blows people away, being plenty comfortable to win in tiebreaks. A 64,76 type of match is entirely realistic and the total of 22.5 may come down to whether Stan serves first in the opening set. I’ll risk it on a low total.
I don’t know enough about Kwon to make an educated move here. He seems like a quickly improving player, especially on hard courts. But, Ivashka is a dude with a decent serve and he could cause problems for the young Korean if he gets hot. I would risk it on Kwon if the price was a little lower but, -225 seems absurd.
Gasquet obviously looks to be still less than 100%. But, Paire is as flaky as they come and he is somehow only 1-6 against Gasquet. This seems like an easy match to avoid.
Shapo has lost five matches in a row and has only won two matches since March. He is statistically better than PHH in every category but, only just. Maybe the home crowd is enough to motivate him to end the losing streak but, more often than not the spotlight in Canada ruins home town players. One of my outright picks is counting on Shapo to struggle. So, that is enough of an investment here.
Tsonga -1.5, -125
Basilashvili - 2.5, -110
Mannarino ml, -120
Wawrinka/Dimitrov o22.5, -120