Another shitty day, capped off by Tsonga blowing up my outrights. I just can’t get on a roll and I simply put it down to shitty handicapping. Bad effort. All around.
Only Tsitty remains. The two longshots made meek exits in round one. Let’s hope the Greek freak can carry my flag.
Both ADM and Evans had shocking first round losses in Washington and both have the same travel schedule coming from Atlanta before Washington. They have almost identical combined hold/break stats in 2019 on hard courts and both play a similar movement over power kind of game. I don’t have an opinion on who wins this match as it seems a dead heat; if anything, ADM looks a little steep in price. I would suggest an over based on their similar styles and the fact that their one and only meeting went 76,75 on a quick grass surface. But, I have been terrible on totals all year and I’ll just pass on this match.
I’m going to break a “rule” because, well, fuck, I’m down 36 units, why not. I usually never bet on Gilles Simon matches. You can just throw stats out the window with this guy, he’s a disaster to handicap. But, here’e the thing; I pointed out on the podcast, one angle to watch was travel from Mexico. It’s like an 8-9 hour flight, any North American will tell you West to East travel is not easy on the body clock, and well, Los Cabos is resort city and Montreal is, well, Montreal. It’s not a beach town. There were three Washington vs Los Cabos matches on Monday. Dogs, favorites, pick’ems, did’t matter, the three players in this situation from Los Cabos never won a set. Simon is coming from Washington where he went out in the first round, he’s plenty rested and he’s at least been to Canada on nine different occasions. Albot is coming from Mexico, he went to the semi-finals there, and he has never played in Canada. Add to that the fact that Simon is 2-0 against Albot and has never dropped a set to him… and you have a play on Simon; as much as I hate to do it.
Go back and re-read that last paragraph and replace Albot with Pella and Simon with Goffin. It’s the exact same scenario, almost to a tee. The only difference is Goffin is 3-0 against Pella, not 2-0. Going to whiten my knuckles and take Goffin.
Coric should skate past Gojo pretty easily. But, the Croat has been relatively unhealthy lately and I don’t know what his fitness level is. Gojo went on a rampage in Washington, upsetting in order, Rublev, DeMinaur, Raonic and Edmund before losing to Medvedev. It was an impressive run and I really have no idea if that kind of form can carry over when it is produced out of no where. Gojo was out in qualifying or the first round of 12 of his last 14 tournaments. The two where he made it past the the first round… well, he lost in round two. That run last week literally came out of no where. I’ll pass on this match.
Here’s another scenario where you have a Los Cabos player vs a Washington player. And the Washington player is favored. And travel is probably factored in. Has to be. Because I don’t see any other reason why Hurkacz would be favored over Taylor Fritz. Hurkacz just had a pretty poor showing against Isner in Washington and Fritz is coming off back to back finals, albeit in 250’s, against lackluster competition and on separate coasts. In fact, Fritz has an incredibly poor travel schedule coming into Montreal. Fritz is better in every category I look; three years of combined hold/break numbers, hard court career, tiebreak success, head-to-head… only travel is a draw back. I would make Fritz the favorite here and this line is enough to scare me off this match.
If you want the statistical breakdown, Edmund is about on par with Kyrgios. A little bit better this year, a little bit worse last year. In reality, on the court, stats don’t matter. When NK cares, greatly, he wins. He proved that last week. All signs would point to him not caring this week. That’s his m.o. He won Acapulco this year and proceeded to go on a pretty decent run of dropping out early. It would seem, historically, though that Edmund usually comes up lacking in big spots. And make no mistake, despite this being a first round match, it’s a big spot. Spotlight lights on now. NK beat two contemporary players who have already established top 10 credentials. Kyrgios spent about a year in the teens but, could never crack the top 10. I would say most of the tennis fans who pay attention day-to-day outside of Slams will be more than eager to see if Kyrgios is going to back up Washington. He’s somehow a dog in this match. I’ll bite.
Isner does not have a sexy record in Canada and I think his matches are to be avoided here. He usually is pressured or feels the need to play Newport and Atlanta based on his playing style and he’s racked up great success at those two events. But, the way the schedule works, especially when he chooses to also attend Washington, means that he goes from Wimbledon, to Newport, to Atlanta, to Washington, to Toronto, to Cincinnati, to Winston-Salem, to Flushing Meadows. I’m no rocket scientist… but maybe he needs to start skipping Newport and Atlanta once in a while. Or even Washington. Is it any co-incidence that when he won Atlanta and went to the finals in Washington in 2015… he had gone out on day one at Newport? He did complete the tri-fecta in 2011, winning Newport and making the finals in Atlanta before losing in the semis in Washington - that’s three good runs. But, that was in 2011. Eight years ago. He’s usually burnt out, again, by Canada, only making the semis here one time in his career. He has also only had two good runs in Cincy, making the finals once and the semis one other time. All this culminates in him having a shitty record at his “home” Slam, where he has only made the quarters twice in 12 years.
Cilic has had a bad year, no doubt. But, he showed signs of life in Washington and Klahn is playing the Isner schedule. I’m all over Cilic here. I even think he may be able to make a little run here, given his quarter. I though PHH may be able to take advantage of Thiem but, maybe it will be Cilic in the quarters. I’ll take him 2-0.
I have no line for Millman/Lopez but, that is not a match that interest me anyway, with Lopez not having played singles since Wimbledon and Millman coming from Los Cabos.
Goffin/Simon ml, +120
Kyrgios ml, +100
Cilic 2-0, -125