It’s a big day. Manic Monday went horribly but, Querrey has a chance to make some noise and I have a vested interest in Novak and Fed coming through.
Quarter-final day has been full of surprises the last few years at Wimbledon - Anderson over Fed last year, Querrey over Murray in 2017, Berdych over Novak in 2017, and Gasquet over Wawrinka in 2015. Let’s hope we get more of that kind of stuff today and not 2016 when all four heavy favorites rolled.
Querrey 150/1 in tough against Rafael Nadal.
Fed/Novak to win their quarters on the line today.
Fed/Novak to meet in the final….
Fed to win it all (this should, at least, survive today)
It’s a big day.
Novak and Goffin have played six times and the Djoker has won comfortably only twice. Now, those two blowouts came on some of the faster surfaces on tour - Cincinnati and the O2, so that is still concerning for Goffin. But, overall, Goffin has been able to play Djokovic tight, easily covering the spread if not winning outright, in each of the other four matches. Novak’s only dropped one set so far, in a tiebreak, and he is holding serve 94% of the time at Wimbledon so, Goffin is in tight. Not that this is an exact science in any way but, Novak is the second greatest tiebreak performer of all time (behind only Fed, by 1%) and he has lost the last two tiebreaks he has played so, the odds Goffin takes one off him seem slight. The other side of the coin is that Goffin is holding serve 88% of the time, which is very good but, not elite and Djovokic is breaking serve 34% of the time. It may be hard for Goffin to even get to tiebreaks. The last observation would be that this is the first time Novak’s spread has dropped down to a bettable number. The spread was -8.5 against Kohl in round one and -9.5 in his other three matches. Against Goffin it is down to -7.5. So, books are aware this may not be a total cakewalk. That’s a lot of writing to say I’m passing but, that’s what I am doing. If you’ve been following along with the set handicap bets since the French Open, you’ll know they did really well prior to Wimbledon but, are only about 0.500 in London. This will be a good opportunity for one. When Goffin loses he usually goes down badly. His last four losses have seen him drop the final set 3-6 or worse and he has done that in nine of his seventeen losses in 2019. Additionally, Djoker has shown the tendency to run away from people late in matches. Hurkacz is the only guy to get a set and also the only guy to get to four games in the final set at Wimbledon. It was a similar story at Roland Garros.
I think I am down to finally fade Pella. He’s given me bad vibes all fortnight and I haven’t been involved in one of his matches yet but, now’s the time. This match-up presents the biggest disparity in games played and in time on court of the tournament so far. RBA has played 109 games and spent 408 minutes on court (both the lowest of the players left in the draw). Pella has played 180 games and spent 762 minutes on court (both the highest of the players left in the draw). They have played twice before and RBA has won five of the six sets they played and won those five sets in big fashion - including two breadsticks and a bagel. RBA hasn’t dropped a set yet this tournament and has only needed one tiebreak (against the heavy serving Khachanov) so I don’t think he’ll need one here. I missed the best line, as this fucking match was sitting at RBA -5.5 all day but, well, I have a job, so, now it’s -6.5 and I’m getting -5.5 with some heavy juice. It is what it is.
Is this the one upset in the cards for Wednesday? Man, I hope so. These two have played five times and if you remove the one match on clay in Madrid (where Nadal is other-worldly) Querrey has taken at least one set each time. Despite the fact that there is a 33 game gap in their court time this fortnight (151 games to 118) Querrey has only spent 18 more minutes on court than Nadal. So, the American should be plenty fresh. Querrey has only dropped two sets so far and they were both in tiebreaks so we know he is in good form. The issue of course is there will certainly be tiebreaks if Querrey is to win this. Nadal is holding serve at 94% in his first four matches and Querrey is no savant at breaking serve. Additionally, Nadal is breaking serve 33% of the time, which means Querrey will probably be under constant pressure. The tiebreak yes prop is juiced to -225, so I am out on that but, I do suspect there will be one. I’m holding out hope here that Querrey keeps this competitve and steals one of the first two sets in a tiebreak. I’ll be looking to hedge the future at that point. He should be buoyed by the fact he beat Nadal in straights on his way to the title in Acapulco the last time these two met. Hopefully, that confidence shouldn’t wane too quick. If the tiebreak prop is too juicy for you, the over 10.5 games in the first set pays +162. I’ll have Subway money on that.
The history shows Nishikori has actually beaten Fed three times but, they have never met on grass. And I’m not sure they have ever met when Fed is coming off a 61,62,62 type performance. They have only played once at a Slam, and it was Fed’s first back from injury, the 2017 Aussie where Nishi pushed Fed to five sets. This would appear to be a slightly different Federer. He is holding serve a ridiculous 97% of the time so far this tournament. He’s been broken twice, once by Lloyd Harris, which he followed up by winning 61,62,62 and once by Pouille, in a set where he happened to break Pouille three times. The -6.5 spread is priced at even money, I like that (I’m not sure how Fed and RBA can both be -6.5, +100 and yet Fed’s moneylines is double RBA’s but, I’m not an oddsmaker) .
RBA -5.5, -150
Fed -6.5, +100