That should have been a fairly epic 6-2 day. Karlovic and Tomic lost. I’ll take that. Probably bad capping, probably two guys I should be adding the Haase-Simon do not bet category. But…. Robredo and ADF, I mean, wow.
I’ll just leave this here:
Two of the most amazing losses I have seen in my life. Concurrently. Like, at the same time. The simultaneously decided not to win any more games.
A few of the longer shots get underway today. If you haven’t checked out the @ballboyztennis podcast yet or read @bangthebook, please do, the more serious outrights don’t get underway till Wednesday anyway.
Wedding prep is in full swing and there is somewhere in the neighbourhood of 20 matches tomorrow so, I won’t be touching on everything.
Travaglia and Fabbiano have pretty similar combined hold/break stats on clay and very similar career winning percentages. Travaglia may have a bit of a form advantage, having went to the finals of a clay Challenger event in Germany two weeks ago, while Fabbiano hasn’t played since the first round of Wimbledon. But, I’m not sure this is enough to justify Travaglia as a -188 favorite.
Victor Galovic is not really a Tour level player. He made one main draw in 2018, as a lucky loser, in Gstaad, where he beat Robin Haase (who everyone beats) and a 17 year old FAA before losing to Laslo Djere. Those three matches account for Galovic’s strong hold/break numbers on clay in 2018. True small sample size. If you include his Challenger results, the numbers become… not pretty. One clay semi-final on the Challenger tour last year. This is all not to mention the fact that Galovic is coming off three surfaces in three weeks - Wimble qualies in Roehampton, Recanati Challenger on hards in Italy, then the Perugia Challenger on clay. Bizarre scheduling. Balazs is a great parlay piece.
-600 is a big price for Krajinovic. I’m sure it is informed by a 4-0 head-to-head and Krajinovic’s success in clay Challenger events in 2019.
Lorenzi, like Balazs is a solid parlay piece. It is a tad concerning that Lorenzi hasn’t taken a week off in a while, but, Lorenzi never takes a week off. His opponent is Peter Torebko, a 31 year old who was playing a Futures event last week. He somehow made it through qualies but, I don’t think he’ll be moving on past the Italian.
Andujar and Mayer have remarkably similar clay numbers for two guys with very different games. Mayer holds serve consistently over 80% of the time, while Andujar is breaking serve close to 30% of the time. The end result though is that both guys clock in near 100% combined hold/break on clay all the time (they are within 8% of each other each year), they have both won right around 54% of their career clay matches and they have split their career head-to-head 2-2. Pass.
Don’t bet Robin Haase matches. You’ll feel better in the morning.
Klizan is not necessarily someone you want to be betting spreads with. He tends to drop sets out of nowhere and many, if not most, of his wins in 2019 are very close. Still, I expect him to get past Bagnis here, I have an outright on him this week and he is a solid parlay piece on Tuesday. He has significant hold/break advantages over Bagnis and their career results on clay are not close. Bagnis has had great success at the Challenger level this year, making a semi-final and two further finals but, he has failed to win a main draw ATP match since Gstaad last year.
I mentioned on the podcast that Trungelliti was a relatively dangerous guy lurking in qualies. I rode him through both qualifying matches and I’ll be on him again today. It’s a tad concerning that he has played so many weeks in a row but, like Lorenzi, he is pretty used to that kind of schedule. His opponent is local wildcard Nino Serdarusic. Nino hasn’t played in three weeks and hasn’t made it past a quarter-final in a Challenger event in 2019. In fact, he has gone out in the first round in 12 of 21 Challenger tournaments this year. This is his first ATP tour level match since this tournament last year, where he went out in the first round, again as a wildcard, to Max Marterer. Trung should get this done, even if it is a bit of a roller-coaster.
I like to bet on Moutet but, Caruso came back from the dead yesterday and that is enough to scare me away. I think I’m still in shock.
Chardy is having a pretty terrible year and while clay is his best surface, he is 4-7 on it in 2019. PCB has much better combined hold/break numbers on the surface than Chardy does and he has already transitioned from grass, as he “had” to go through qualifying. I’m a little concerned that qualies were so tough for him though. He dropped a set to a local wildcard and he was broken serving for the match against Quiroz and had to eek t out in two tiebreaks. Something seems off and so, while the price seems in line and PCB should find a way to get this done, I’m staying away. These guys have played four times and Chardy is 3-1. Coincidently, one of Chardy’s wins over PCB happens to be one of his few clay wins in 2019. So, that head-to-head would also give me pause.
Oh, I want to take Nic Jarry. Clay is his best surface (maybe not for much longer though), where he recently made the finals in Geneva and the quarters in Barcelona. But, here’s a weird thing: Laaksonen somehow has a better combined hold/break number than Jarry, on clay, every single year. Bizarre. Anyway, it’s enough to make me swerve away from this match. Pass.
Delbonis is too large of a favorite, outside my betting range.
I have a small outright on Monteiro. Elias Ymer is 1-6 for his career in Bastad. Thiago is pretty hot, coming off a title in Germany and he actually beat Elias here last year, in straights. The Brazlian has a distinct hold/break advantage each year and while he is prone to dropping a set, he is a decent parlay bet.
I’m actually scared off of Sousa based on the price. Why is this so low? Kovalik is essentially a quad-A kind of player - does well on the Challenger tour struggles on the ATP tour. He has had some one-off runs like Hamburg last year, that account for his good hold/break numbers in a small sample size but, generally he struggles in main draws. On top of that, Sousa is clay guy who is coming off some great, maybe unexpected, success at Wimbledon. I have this match closer to like -400 and I’m just going to stay away, fearing a letdown from Sousa.
Londero continues to ride the wave of his Cordoba success, getting into a fifth straight main draw. He’s actually dropped both his matches against Arguello and neither guy has stepped on a clay court in a while. This is an easy pass.
It’s pretty hard to tell when Gulbis is going to be ‘on’. He’s like a lesser version of Benoit Paire. Either way, there is no chance Hugo Dellien should be -334 on the moneyline. It’s Gulbis or pass here.
It’s hard to say how healthy Steve Darcis is. He has had some puzzling losses since coming back this year and I have no interest in getting involved here. Even with Darcis’ up and down play, I am not sure Novak should be -175.
I have an outright on Ruud and Dzumhur is a solid tour vet. This is not a place where I am eager to double dip. Ruud has a better combined hold/break number on clay than Dzumhur in each of the past three years and has already established that he can compete at the big level on clay. Still, Dzumhur is a tricky guy and this is not a place to double down. I’ll just cross my fingers and hope Ruud doesn’t get overly taxed.
Ramos-Vinolas has been pretty messy the last two years. He has plenty of puzzling losses but, I feel like he can get past qualifier Constant Lestienne here. Lestienne has never won a main draw match on clay and it’s not like he is a 22 year old prospect. ARV is a true clay courter who loves this little clay portion of the year. He is 10-5 in Bastad, making the quarter-finals here four times and winning the title in 2016. A solid parlay piece.
Matthew Ebden has excelled here in the past, considers grass his best surface, by far and is playing someone who has no history of success on grass. This should be a slam dunk, right? Well, Ebden is in maybe the worst stretch of his life. He went out in the first round in Antalya, the first round at Wimbledon and even dropped his first round match in Winnetka last week. To top it off, that match last week was on hard courts. Now he is switching back to grass. It’s too risky to get behind Ebden here, regardless of the price.
All the same stuff that is true about Ebden is true about Kudla. Grass is his best surface, yet he had a terrible 2019 grass season. And he is playing someone who is in good from, albeit on a different surface. Klahn is coming off a title in Winnetka where he didn’t drop a set. Pass.
Can I keep riding Ramanathan? This is a big step up in quality of competition from his qualies matches. The good thing for Ram is that Staks has one main draw grass win in 2019 and it was over teenager Rudy Molleker in Halle. Ramanathan has the way better grass court numbers and really, this is the one time of year I get to bet on this kid. Have to.
Steve Johnson is the defending champ here and while he is having a pretty bad 2019, he should not have any issues with Chris Eubanks on grass.
Mischa Zverev may get a win! He plays Timmy Smalls, who hardly a threat on grass.
Klizan/Lorenzi ml, +114
Trungelliti/Balazs ml, +100
Monteiro/ARV ml, +120
Ramanathan ml, -125