Posted plays went 6-4, and that includes epic level collapses from Dimitrov and Dzumhur. Oh, what could have been. On top of that live plays went a very poor 1-3, including collapses from Tsitsipas and Monfils. Fun times.
Reads still felt very good and I think I will return to avoiding outrights. That should lower my stress levels.
Raonic cruised, which was nice. Djoker survived what could have been a tough battle.
A few more outrights get into action on Tuesday. If you haven’t read the preview yet or listened to the pod, there is still time. Check them out at @bangthebook and @ballboyztennis.
Outside of a fun run in 2017 (and really a whole fun grass season in 2017) Thiem has struggled on the surface. Querrey, on the other hand, has epic runs here in 2016 and 2017, beating amoung others, Kevin Anderson, Novak Djokovic and an injured Andy Murray. Querrey’s game is suited to grass, it’s his best surface and I think he not only has a good chance to upset Thiem but, to make a decent run this week. I already have an outright on Querrey, so I’ll just sit on the sidelines here and cheer the US flag.
Rublev is having a bit of a rough year and Garin is not super experienced on grass. I am kind of surprised to see Garin as such a heavy favorite here. Maybe just an over-reaction to his run in s’Hertogenbosch? Two years ago Rublev did just fine on grass, going through to the quarters at Halle and getting through qualies at Wimbledon. This feels like Rublev or pass.
Dellien has almost zero experience on grass. One career match, where he lost to Go Soeda in straights. Last week he was playing a clay Challenger in Milan. Millman should cruise but, a spread of -8.5 sees a tad high considering the Mill has lost all three grass matches he has played in 2019. Pass.
Neither Andreozzi nor Djere have a grass win on the ATP tour yet. So, I’ll pass on even trying to analyze this match.
Betting Gilles Simon matches is not good for anyone’s health. He should easily beat Caruso, who has limited grass experience. But Caruso beat Simon handily at the French Open this year and Caruso made it through qualifying at both s’Hertogenbosch and Wimbledon this past week. He might trouble Simon a bit. Pass.
Sandgren has beaten Uchiyama all three times they have played, although all three have been on hard courts. Tennys only attended one grass event this year and went out meekly in Eastbourne, eating a breadstick along the way. I imagine Sandgren wins but, I don’t want to risk it.
Dennis Novak has been pretty hot lately; maybe one of the hotter guys on the Challenger tour throughout the grass season. He made the quarters in Nottingham, the finals in Ilkley, and he rolled through Wimbledon qualies. Fucs’ isn’t special on grass and this match looks lined properly. Pass.
Tiafoe and I are like oil and water. I literally have no idea why. I bet on this guy all the time, and he loses almost without fail. I have bet against him a few times in his career and I believe he has a perfect winning record in that scenario (see: Delray Beach, 2018). Anyway, I put an outright on Tiafoe because I like his path. Fognini is less than stellar at Wimbledon and hasn’t played a grass match yet in 2019. I expect Tiafoe to eek this out.
Cilic is just having too rough of a 2019 for me to get behind him as a big favorite. Add to that his shock exit in 2018 at Wimbledon and Mannarino’s string of success this grass season and this is ripe for another upset, the likes of which we saw a few of on Monday.
Sousa went from Holland to Germany to Turkey to London. He didn’t win many matches along the way and Jubb has surprised some people this summer. I don’t see an angle here and I don’t want to get involved.
Delbonis is shockingly bad on grass. He has been to Wimbledon five times and only covered the spread one time (against Fognini in 2016). He was just in Turkey, where he was dispatched easily by Humbert. His combined hold/break numbers are routinely below 80%, which is below even average Challenger level players. Evans should take of him pretty easily. Evans’ numbers are above average to very good on grass, and he has a positive tiebreak record should one of the sets get there. I’ll take Evans on the handicap, expecting a breadstick or a 62 type set somewhere in there.
I don’t see an edge between Ward and Basil, and Shapo is not to be trusted in five set matches yet. I’ll pass on both these matches.
Tsonga kind of owns Bernard Tomic. Three matches, three pretty routine wins. Tomic is coming from Antalya after being previously in England (weird travel schedule considering Eastbourne was right there…). Tomic’s record against top level talent recently is abysmal. His last, and only since 2016, win over a top 20 player was against Fognini on hard courts. Tsonga has two losses on grass in 2019 and they are to Roger Federer and Milos Raonic, both in three sets. I expect Tsonga will run over the Aussie here.
Kyrgios. Hmmm. Monfils, Dimitrov, and Zverev all lost on Monday. What do these guys have in common? Ya, I’ll pass. Nick should roll, just based on talent level alone but, I have no desire to get involved.
Nadal is a huge favorite and should advance easily. Not a match I can get involved with though, based on the lined presented.
Evans -7.5, +100
Tsonga -5.5, +100
Nishikori -6.5, -138
Isner/Baghdatis ml, +120