ATP Tennis 2019 July 5 Wimbledon Day 5

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Well, I crashed and burned on the biggest stage I could have imagined. Fun times.

Isner and Cilic both lost to guys, on grass, that they had previously owned. Taylor Fritz couldn’t save a break point. Oh, and I bet on Gilles Simon. Broke the cardinal rule, at the worst possible time. Pretty much at a loss, at this point.

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The fun thing is that a bunch of futures still remain and they all look more or less in good shape.

Querrey, Raonic, Fed, Djoker. I basically need that semi-final lineup.

Day 5

There is no statistical argument to pick Hurkacz in any fashion. Djokovic has the best grass court hold/break records I can find (only peak 2006 Fed was better). He has the second best tiebreak winning percentage of anyone with a decent sample size (Federer). He has the best closing ratio in finishing sets of anyone other than Rafa, too. -9.5 is a massive number though. Under 27.5 would mean three straight 6-3 sets, which also would not cover the spread for the Serb. And the 3-0 costs -500. I won’t even feel comfortable with a third set handicap because books will probably set it at -2.5 and it will probably be -175 or more (if you do see -1.5, -200, hit it though). Hurkacz actually loses well. They played at the French and Novak covered this line but, that was on clay. I think Hurkacz is better suited to grass, his results here and at Eastbourne proving that. So, this is a total avoid.

I can’t get a read on either FAA or Ugo. Ugo is surprising with his play here, maybe being aided by a Monfils injury. FAA seems tired or out of place in five setters; as he has inexplicably lost sets to Pospisil and Moutet. He recovered well both times and this is a great spot for a fourth set handicap on FAA should the situation arise. Also, with the expectations of a fourth set, the over is a good bet here. FAA has dropped a set in all three of his career main draw Slam matches and Ugo has now played in six main draw Slam matches, going four sets in four of the matches and playing a tiebreak in the other two. FAA was holding serve 94% of the time on grass coming into Wimbledon and he is holding 89% of the time in London so far. Ugo was holding serve 88% of the time on grass coming into Wimbledon and he has held serve 85% of the time this week.

I like to ride with Medvedev and I like to get against Goffin. So, here we are. Goffin has played amazing on grass in 2019. Far above levels he displayed in previous years. His losses in Holland and Germany were both t the eventual tournament champions. And he is steamrolling through the lesser competition he faces - Fokina, PHH, Pella on grass, Klahn and Chardy all in straights. There is every chance Goffin keeps rolling. He is holding serve at a remarkable 87% of the time on grass this year as of yesterday. Additionally, Goffin is breaking serve over 30% of the time. These are elite, elite numbers. Medvedev rests comfortably on the level just below the elite stats. He sits between 105% and 107% combined hold/break in each of the last three years; super consistent and super good, if not elite. Medvedev should be able to get to Goffin a little better than most of the Belgian’s opponents though. Meds routinely breaks serve over 20% of the time on grass and he has created 13 break points in both his matches so far this week (if being a tad bit less successful in taking advantage of them). These two played on a quick surface in Melbourne and Meds rolled through Goffin and while it is irresponsible to put too much on one match-up I do feel that this match could play out similarly. There was a tiebreak in Melbourne that Meds won and Meds already has a winning tiebreak record for his career (Goffin does not).

I don’t see an edge between Fabbiano and Verdasco. Like, at all. Their combined hold/break numbers across the last three years are within 8%, their grass winning percentage for their careers are both sitting around 54%, they both have just below .500 records in tiebreaks, and they both played all three weeks of the grass season. I got nothing.

Kevin Anderson is rolling again. Took him a few matches but, he seems back to his old self. He dropped a tiebreak to Tipsy but, nothing else. Pella is the giant slayer though; disposing of Cilic last year and getting past a big server in Copil in round one and a solid grass player in Seppi in round two. I suspect Anderson will win, as suggested by the line but, I don’ t see how to bet it.

Raonic is better than Opelka in every category that I look at. Basically he is just a better, more mature version of Opelka. He has received medical treatment in both his matches but, survived both. He hasn’t dropped a set and he threw down 32 aces on Wednesday against Haase. I’m not overly sure how either guy breaks serve but, the total is set at 43.5, which is brutally high. I’ll take Raonic to get through this, probably in three tiebreaks. Raonic has won over 62% of the tiebreaks he has played in his career.

RBA hasn’t been past nine games in a set yet at Wimbledon. He has been sneaky good on grass for a while now without really winning any kind of titles; he’s made the fourth round of Wimbledon twice, made the quarters in Halle, losing a tight one to Fed this year, and made the semis in Halle last year. Khachnov has looked less than impressive so far (even though I have bet him in both matches). He dropped a set both times this week and he has lost to RBA three times, including once on grass. Crucially, RBA has a better combined hold/break number on grass than KK in each of the past three years and RBA has proven to be the better tiebreak player.

Paire vs Vesely. Ya. Ok. I’m not capping this. What I do expect is one of them to no show. It would be par for the course and the total is set kind of high, at 40.5.

FAA/Humbert o36.5, -110
Meds ml, -110
Raonic/RBA ml, +104

Good luck