Day one of the GRASS SEASON!
Sunday on clay ended with a bang, which helped the bankroll and helps me forget the red dirt. Time to move to greener pastures.
I only hit two outrights on clay this year and they were both even money bets. Very disappointing. Time to focus on grass.
Three units spread across four outrights this week. Check out @bangthebook for the written preview and check out @ballboyztennis for the audio. They are both up as of Sunday night.
Fucsovics is on a four match losing streak and he didn’t exactly light the grass on fire last year. He went 1-3 on the green stuff in 2018, with his only win coming against Denis Kudla. If you go back to 2017 you’ll find two more opening round losses but, a championship in Ilkley. That sounds a whole like a quad-A player, winning Challenger titles and getting thumped on the big tour. I’m having a hard time seeing him as a -334 favorite even against a guy who has never really played on grass before. Munar is a talented kid and it wouldn’t surprise me if he put up a fight here.
Tsonga is a lunch-pail guy who excels on grass. It’s his best surface and he wins over 70% of the time while carrying elite level hold/break stats. On top of that, Tsonga is just a different class of player than Mishca. The issue I see is Tsonga hasn’t played on grass in almost two years and Mischa will be looking for any kind of jumpstart to his season - Mischa has lost eight straight matches but, his title last year came in Eastbourne on grass. I’m out on this.
Shapo hasn’t managed to win back to back matches on grass, ever. But, I don’t need him to win back to back. I just need one. Shapo has much better combined hold/break stats on grass than Struff and Struff’s worst surface is arguably grass.
Kohl is a big price but, should come out a winner.
I don’t like anything in Holland. Tommy Paul doesn’t have enough of a track record. I don’t bet Tiafoe matches. Garin has better grass stats and should win but, has lost to Caruso twice before, which is concerning regardless of surface. You should never bet Haase at this event, is track record here is atrocious. Fritz should be good on grass one day but, like Tommy Paul he doesn’t have the track record yet.
Shapovalov ml, -125