Well yesterday was… rain-filled. I was close on Ugo and Garin, would have split that. I didn’t really have a parlay partner for Tsonga and he hadn’t been on grass in two years. So, all-in all, I don’t feel too bad that I didn’t hit anything.
Grass is going well. I have four outrights this week, spread over three units and two tournaments. Read @bangthebook, listen @ballboyztennis.
Dustin Brown is good on grass, he’d consider it his best surface, he’s got a lot of history here in Stuttgart, it’s his home country and he should already be acclimatized to grass having played last week in Surbiton and having gone through qualies. Lots to like here. And you are getting dog money. Millman, as opposition, isn’t that stout. He went 5-4 on grass last year but, his five wins were over a retiring Gilles Muller, a couple of one trick ponies in Nic Mahut and Marius Copil (in qualies, no less) and Stefano Travaglia. Squeezing by Leo Mayer in two tiebreaks was probably his best win. Brown doesn’t have any official hold/break stats from 2018 because he didn’t make any main draws but, in the four qualies he did play his numbers were 88 and 12, good for 100%; just above Millman’s 97%. Brown is serving well here in Stuttgart, having not been broken through qualies and only facing three total break points in two matches. I’ll take the plus money.
Don’t bet Gille Simon matches. On any surface.
FAA has never played a pro match on grass. I know he is a good young player, even a great one. But, I can get a solid grass player who routinely puts up a combined hold/break number around 100% or better and who has years of experience on the surface. I’ll take Gulbis.
I covered Fucs/Munar yesterday. I am not interested. Fucs is not anything special on grass at the ATP level and Munar, like FAA, has zero experience on the green stuff. They are both also on healthy losing streaks. Pass.
Raonic is back and I am in on him in a big way. He has impeccable grass stats - 111% combined hold/break last year, he holds serve 95% of the time, he is dominant in tiebreaks, he went to the finals here last year and he is playing a young Aussie who doesn’t have a ton of experience at the ATP level. One of the reasons Roanic serves so well on grass is because he is 6’5. Popyrin has played Alex Zverev twice and Isner once, both even taller than Milos. Popyrin never made it past ten games in any set against those big fellas. I feel comfortable that Raonic wins this in straights.
I wrote up Shapo yesterday and even got him at -125. It’s now -138. Look at that, I actually got CLV. That doesn’t happen often. Struff just isn’t that great on grass (0.261 winning percentage) and Shapo, while being decent on grass already, also didn’t go four rounds deep at the French.
Lopez and Pouille have played four times. Three of them have cruised over the total as these two split sets. Their hold/break numbers on grass are within 5%, they both have had great success on grass, probably consider it their best surface, and they both should be uber-motivated (Pouille because he needs to get back on track and Lopez because this is the last hurrah on his turf). I like the over.
I’ll gladly avoid Monfils/Johnson. SJ is a bit of an enigma to me; someone who excels on grass yet has won two clay tournaments the last two years. Their hold/break stats are within 5% on grass across the last few years, they both win pretty close to 60% of the time on the surface and Monfils, who I would normally back in this scenario, went four rounds at the French last week. No thanks.
Kudla has played a ton of tennis lately. But, this is one of the rare times I’ll not worry about travel/fatigue. This is Kudla’s time to shine. Grass season is short and he’ll play every week. He went to the semi-finals in Surbiton last week and that semi-final was comprised by rain (Kudla had to play twice in one day). His grass stats obviously blow Galovic’s out of the water and this seems like a lock.
Kyrgios skipped clay for the most part. He half-heartedly played three matches - I live bet against him while recording a podcast in while he was in Madrid and then in Rome he actually defaulted out of a match. But, he loves grass. He went 8-3 last year on grass and his three losses were to Nishikori, Cilic and Federer; all top ten. Berrettini is a great young player and he should push Kyrgios so that’s why I’ll parlay this.
Sinner is like 17. Jarry has very little grass experience and I am interested to see how his serve, at like 6’6, translates to grass. I’ll pass on this.
Kuku on grass. Yes. He’s kept a combined hold/break number over 100% dating back to 2016 and he ran out to the semi-finals in Eastborne last year on grass. Sonego’s two wins on grass last year came against the #225 and #252 players in the world. Kuku is not above dropping a set though, so this a parlay all the way.
Gasquet has all the stuff you want on grass. He keeps his combined hold/break number up around 105% on grass each year, which is big. He wins almost 70% of the time on grass and he is super comfortable in tiebreaks. He also beat Bedene on grass in 2018 so I feel good about him repeating the outcome here.
Fabbiano is in as a lucky loser and that makes me a tad nervous. Seppi’s stats are better but, not markedly so and lucky losers of Fabbiano’s ilk can get, well, lucky. They play carefree and a small upset here wouldn’t surprise me.
I’m done betting Goffin for the season, I think. ADF seems surprisingly comfortable on grass for someone his age (@snizemaster and @mattertipstennis informed me he won Junior WImbledon, so there’s that). I’ll pass on this match.
I’m on Ebden outright. I should have grabbed this money line yesterday, as Ebden opened a dog. Money has poured in and I am late to the party. His combined hold/break stats far outpace PHH and, while I suspect by next year PHH will be a lot better on grass, Ebden is still super comfortable on this surface. Like Kudla, mentioned above, Ebden is a what suffices for a ‘grass specialist’ on tour.
Mannarino loves grass but, I don’t like matches lined above -500. Just look at Kohl yesterday.
Dustin Brown ml, +110
E. Gulbis ml, +120
Raonic 2-0, -125
Shapovalov ml, -125
Lopez/Pouille o24.5, -120
Kudla/Kyrgios ml, -125
Kukushkin/Gasquet ml, +120
Ebden ml, -138