The big ones! Queens and the Fed Open. Sunday was finally a good day, first in almost a week, with Karlovic costing me the perfect day. Let’s hope the move to some bigger venues is a sign of things to come.
Four outrights again this week, all pretty small and therefore all for a full unit. The BangTheBook article is up and the BallBoyzTennis podcast is in the books. Give them a read and a listen; they aren’t easy to put together.
Twelve matches on Monday, six at each location. It’ll have to be brief, it is Father’s Day. Let’s go.
Sousa is not great on grass. Awesome fade spot. He had to rough it through qualies in three sets against both Sinner and Kecmanovic, two young players with far less grass experience. This should be a match Hurkacz can win with his serve. Unfortunately, Hurkacz also doesn’t have a ton of grass experience (he played 5 matches last year, for the first time on the surface). I like the over here and if it was 22.5 I would hop on it. As is, though, I’ll pass.
Monfils has everything I am looking for here. Better hold/break stats each of the last two years, a better grass winning percentage, better tiebreak record, he’s rested, and his only loss to PHH was a retirement due to injury. Monfils has dropped a set in nine of his last ten matches on grass, so I don’t suspect it will be easy and I’ll avoid the spread.
I have an outright on KK but, DD is no pushover on grass. The Bosnian excels on this surface and has better hold/break numbers on grass, it’s his best surface, he is close to .500 in tiebreaks and he has beaten KK before, on quick indoor hards. I like Dzumhur to cover a huge handicap on gass.
Both Albot and Ebden are stellar on grass. Their grass stats are within 5% in both of the last two years and they both consider grass their best surface. This match is surprisingly lined at only 22.5 despite being on grass. I’ll bite on the over.
I have no feel for a slumping Johnson and and ageing Kohl. Also, Zverev is priced crazy high. Pass on both.
Cilic is a dominant grass player. Despite his struggles this year, I think he is still backable against a guy who, while improving on grass, is still young enough to get blown away by someone like Cilic. Every stat I look at is heavily in Cilic’s favour and he should be motivated to defend last years title here.
Schwartzman is a career 10% winner on grass and Bublik, while young and improving and decent on the surface, doesn’t have a lot of main draw success. Pass.
Medvedev is better in every category on grass than Verdasco and after bombing out in Stuttgart I expect him to be motivated in London. Verdasco has been on declining on grass for a while now and went 1-4 last year n the green stuff. I like Meds to win another tight one.
I don’t bet Tiafoe or Simon matches, that makes the next two very easy to avoid. I do think they both probably win tomorrow.
Anderson is coming back from a long lay off and it is easy to avoid this match and see how he looks.
Monfils/Medvedev ml, -110
Dzumhur +4.5 -150
Albot/Ebden o22.5, -120
Cilic 2-0, -120