What a fun day in Halle, despite the disgusting weather in London on Tuesday. 3-0 on the day, with Gasquet and RBA coming through in straights, a nice LIVE bet that was pure sweat in the second set tiebreak and then a LIVE bet with Berrettini that again went right down to the wire, with him breaking at the last second. Great stuff. Seppi won too, to get the first half of that parlay home. So, we’ll see if there is any play in London today to finish off Delpo and close that parlay.
It’s always nice to see Mr. Perfect make an appearance. Here’ s hoping he gets to come out and play two days in a row.
All four outrights are still alive. Since there has been next to no action in London, I am sure you can still get the same prices I got. With Fed still alive in Halle, I am also sure those prices haven’t moved much. So, go listen to the @ballboyztennis podcast and/or read the @bangthebook preview article and get some outrights in action.
Neither Coric nor Sousa are overly impressive on grass, despite their combined hold/break stats from 2018. Coric had great, almost fluke success in Halle last year and he won back-to-back matches last week on the surface in ’s-hertogenbosch, so things are turning around for him. Although nothing last week was easy - he dropped sets to Fritz and Garin before coughing up the match to Mannarino. Still, Coric should get Sousa on Wednesday. Sousa may have gotten through qualies here but, he certainly didn’t do it easily. He dropped a set in both matches and his list of victories in Halle this week is not overwhelming. Sousa has beat Jakub Sinner, Miomir Kecmanovic and Hubie Hurkacz. Hurkacz is the oldest, and he just turned 22, the other two are teenagers. Their combined grass court experience is about the same as you or I have. In fact, the going back through Sousa’s career, I can’t find a single grass win against a top 50 player. So, stats aside, Coric should get through here, although the price looks expensive. I’ll look to parlay the Croat (given his recent run of three setters) or pass.
I’ve been a big backer of PHH over the past two years, he is a true late bloomer in singles. He’s got a decent serve which plays well on grass and he plays a lot of tiebreaks, so he is getting comfortable in those coin flips. He also ran rough shod over Monfils on Monday, while Staks struggled with Molleker. The history on grass just doesn’t show enough separation to justify this price. Their combined hold/break stats over the past two years are almost identical, as are their career winning percentages on the grass. Staks, as he showed yesterday, is also plenty comfortable in a tiebreak and would consider grass his best surface. Pass.
I have an outright on Khachanov and he needs to step it up on grass. Meanwhile, Struff showed last week, he is improving in a hurry on the surface. I’m plenty nervous that this has been lined a pick’em and I’ll just sit on the sidelines and cross my fingers that Pocket Kings advances.
I’m going to attack the Goffin/Albot match in a few different ways. Let’s start with this assumption; Goffin is probably going to win the match. He is the much better player overall and is lined as such, a -500 favorite. A couple of caveats to that though: one, Goffin hasn’t beaten much on grass to deserve this price, and two, grass is Albot’s best surface. Goffin beat a 17 year old and PHH, who is still new to singles, last week before losing to Mannarino, and his impressive double breadstick yesterday was against a clay courter, regardless of his #24 rank. So, needless to say, I like Albot here. Yet, this match has a very interesting line. Despite being -500, Goffin is only -3.5 on the games…. with a 21.5 o/u. That means a 75,64 or 76,63 win for Goffin gets him the cover, but, also cashes the over. So, I’ll pay a little juice for the over in case Goffin avoids a tiebreak, as 75,64 seems a likely score.
The second way I’ll attack this match is the live handicap. If Goffin wins the first set, which a line of -500 dictates he will, I don’t think he’ll run away with the second set. Albot is a guy that performs well in second sets so I’ll be looking to back him on the plus games. Now, I’m still exploring this market, so, I am not sure if I’ll see a juicy +2.5 or an even money +1.5, it might depend on how the first set ends. But, if there is a +2.5 available at less than -200 on Albot for the second set, hit it.
I’ll try to be brief on these; there’s ten matches and people have been studying these lines since Sunday, so they’ve had plenty of time to be hammered into their current shape. I also don’t like a lot of these matches from a betting perspective.
Tsitsipas has played a ton of tennis this year, he needs a break. I’m sure if this was a 250 this week he wouldn’t be in attendance but, unfortunately for him, both events are 500’s. His hold/break stats on grass aren’t superior enough to Edmund’s to warrant this line and Edmund is both comfortable in tiebreaks and on home soil. If anything, this smells of an over. Pass.
Kukushkin has advantages in hold/break numbers across both 2018 and 2017 on grass and he has beaten Chardy three times in their four meetings. So, I don’t think anyone could be blamed for taking the Kuku as a dog here. The issue, of course, is Chardy is great on grass, has a huge serve and went to the semis here last year. Again, I could easily see an over here. In fact, you could probably comfortably bet an over in just about every match on Wednesday. Pass.
By the time this match goes off, Mannarino will have had almost three full days to recover from his title and Kyrgios will have had many idle hours in his apartment to watch tv and play video games to stay out of the rain. I’m super concerned about his focus and my outright pick is probably in danger in round one. Sucks.
Dimitrov has not been healthy and FAA made a final on grass. So, we’ll have to assume FAA is capable of adjusting to any surface, at 18, and I’ll avoid betting against him, even in the face of Dimitrov’s great career stats on grass.
I’m on Delpo from yesterday, need him to close a parlay. Shapo is average on grass, despite his junior success and a game that should benefit from a quick surface. Delpo is a good parlay piece if you don’t already have him lined up - over 100% combined hold/break on the green stuff, great in tiebreaks, big serve on a quick surface.
I’m also already on Lopez from yesterday. Please re-read the Delpo description and add ten years of life. It all still applies.
Bedene is actually pretty good on grass, I rode him through qualies here on the weekend. DeMinaur hasn’t been healthy and hasn’t shown an ability to get by on grass at the ATP level yet. Maybe his domination of grass at the Challenger level comes through at the higher level this year but, a bad loss to Thompson last week did nothing to raise my confidence. Pass.
Raonic pulled out of Stuttgart. I have no idea if he is healthy. If healthy, he should win. If he rolls through the first set, it might be worthwhile to look at the second set as a live under or the match as a live under. If the Missile is rolling, he is fire on grass. Pass.
Pouille is a huge favorite. These are matches to avoid.
Stan’s least favorite surface is grass. Dan Evans has won 10 matches in a row on the surface. Stan is still a top ten player, while Evans is still a guy who struggles to stay in spitting distance of the top 50. Could go either way and is lined as such. Pass.
Guess I didn’t find a parlay partner for Coric.
Albot/Goffin o21.5, -138
Lopez ml, -150
Seppi (already won)/Delpo ml, -105