It hasn’t been too often I could throw up Mr. Perfect two days in a row. Things are rolling.
Even if you think I don’t pick matches well (and my record would be proof enough), if you read the Albot/Goffin breakdown and DIDN’T make money… well, shit, I can’t be of service. I’ve proven to be super streaky at picking the actual bets to make but, I think the analysis is usually spot on. Let’s hope it starts to pay off more routinely.
Three of four futures are alive but, fuck sakes, if Delpo isn’t hurt again, and if Raonic doesn’t look fucking great. If Raonic wins this week, after pulling out last week, man, will I be pissed.
If there is going to a Federer upset, as I alluded to on the podcast, then this is it. These two haven’t played in a while but, the last two times they did play… Tsonga won both. In seventeen meetings, they met once on grass… and Tsonga won. Tsonga is not scared of Fed. I won’t have a pre-match play here, just a prayer that Tsonga wins. What I will be looking for is Tsonga to cover the second set handicap. If Federer wins the first set, I suspect Tsonga will be +2.5, -150 ish. Anything under -200 should be hit.
RBA has elite, elite grass stats from 2018. True outlier numbers. So, let’s dig into why. He only played one tournament - Halle - which he didn’t finish. He only dropped one set in the three matches he completed before getting hurt and it was in a tiebreak. And he beat Struff, Haase and a young Khachanov. Not exactly a who’s who of grass stars. So, RBA’s stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. If you look at 2017, him and Gasquet are almost identical. I don’t think RBA should be -175 but, this match is too close to call and I’m not taking Gasquet just because I think the line is 15-20 cents off. Pass.
Berrettini is moving in leaps and bounds. Seppi has better career hold/break numbers, better numbers the last two years, better career record on grass, and he beat Berrettini here last year….. Berrettini is a -450 favorite tomorrow. Jesus. Pass.
Zverev hurt his knee(s) on the Halle court, has withdrawn from the doubles draw and was pushed to 75 in a second set with Robin Haase. Confidence is at an all time low, he double faulted seven more times, and he has lost to Steve Johnson before on a quick court. Their hold/break stats on grass are not that different and Johnson is almost at 60% winner on grass. I’ll pass on this, although the price seems super low. If Johnson breaks early and Zverev is not averaging a double fault every game, he should be a decent plus money bet and worth an investment.
Holy hell, am I nervous about my Kyrgios future. Nick has now had to wait four days to play a first round match. Maybe he is video-gamed out. The good thing is, he is not playing a grass stalwart and has ballooned to a -500 favorite.
FAA has also had four days to recover from the grass final in Stuttgart. I like his chances against a less than 100% Dimitrov even more. However, money has come in on Dimitrov and he has actually moved to -175. I just don’t have a read on this match. Pass.
Raonic’s line is too high to get involved with. Man, I don’t want to wish ill on anyone but, if Raonic cruises here, I’ll be simultaneously pissed and fearful for my future.
Cilic is another massive favorite and I don’t like to get involved in matches lined like this. I suspect Cilic will exact revenge on Pella via a Schwartzman proxy and this could be ugly. Cilic 2-0 pays -175 and that might be a parlay piece if you are looking.
There is no statistical argument for betting Medvedev at -225. He does have better combined hold/break stats on grass over the past two years but, not enough to support -225. He has a winning tiebreak record but, so does Pouille (which is impressive given they are both 25 and under). Medvedev has an amazing 0.591 winning percentage on grass but, Pouille is no slouch at 0.565. And the defining feature of this match… Pouille is 4-0 against Meds. That includes a win on grass, last week in Stuttgart. Here’s why I like Meds. One, he beat a much better opponent in round one than Pouille, dispatching of Verdasco while Pouille only had to deal with qualifier Jay Clarke. Two, revenge factor is huge in tennis. Especially in short time spans. We see this all the time when the tour is tightened up in locales - like the Golden Swing, or the Euro Indoor Swing, or the Asian Swing… where the same group of players play in a string of three or four events in a row. We get re-matches and there are hardly ever sweeps. This will be doubly true with someone of Meds talent level. If Pouille wins, it’ll be in a super tight affair. I’m happy to throw stats out and risk it on Meds.
Here’s another match where I am going to throw out head-to-head and stats. Mahut owns a sparkling 3-0 head-to-head against Stan and one of those wins was on grass. Mahut also, being a bit of a grass specialist, has wonderful grass stats; far superior to Stan’s. Here’s the thing, all three of those wins were pre-Slam-Stan and Stan has hired a grass-specific coach to try and rectify the worst part of his game. he won handily against Dan Evans who was coming off ten straight grass wins - Stan wasn’t broken, broke once in each set, as needed, and didn’t rely solely on his serve, only landing 56% and only hitting seven aces. Like Meds, this goes against my normal logic of a stats based wager but, so be it.
Simon beat Anderson in Pune, ruining my first public future bet 18 months ago. I find Simon matches incredibly hard to read. Anderson may or may not have worked himself into shape in three sets against Cam Norrie. I have no read on this match and no desire to get involved.
Meds/Wawrinka ml, +102
Tsonga 2nd set handicap possibly
Zverev live if a dog