ATP Tennis 2019 June 21

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Mapped out a Tsonga second set play. It won. I didn’t bet it. I was too busy going 0-2 on Kyrgios and Wawrinka. They both collapsed late in the third set, at the same tournament. What a coincidence. I wonder, is Donna Vekic in London?

Fuck sakes.

At least the second set handicap breakdown is still on fire.

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Both my outright in London are out and Milos looks primed to roll through to a title. Of course. Oh, and Tsonga couldn’t pull off the Federer upset, meaning, my Halle futures are probably shot too.

Man, Thursday sucked.

Halle

Federer owns RBA. 8-0 and has only dropped one set (although it was in their most recent match). The line is set way too high to get involved on Fed’s side, with even the handicap set at -3.5, with juice at -150. That is too much considering Fed has played a tiebreak in both matches here in Halle this week. What is consistent is Fed’s record in latter sets, which I have been exploiting since the beginning of the French Open. You might even be able to middle this in a juicy way, with Fed -3.5, -150 and RBA second set +2.5, -200 if Fed wins the first set 6-4.

It’s hard not to like Coric here. He is holding serve 89% of the time so far this season on grass. It’s only five matches but that’s a big number. Conversely, PHH, while he also has a good serve, is only breaking serve 17% of the time - right in line with his numbers for the last two years on grass. So, can PHH break Coric? Probably not. Maybe only once if I had to put a number on it. The o/u is set at 23.5 which is a number that makes me nervous - that is a long-term losing proposition in ATP three set matches. If you like the over, you may as well gamble on three sets, which pays +150. For me, I’ll settle for Coric -1.5 games at -138. He’ll break PHH, he might drop a tiebreak, and he’ll probably win in three. I could see it playing out very similar to his win over Cristian Garin in Holland, who had pretty similar grass court stats to PHH.

I have an outright on KK and Berrettini. Couldn’t care less who wins, feels like either one gets waxed by Zverev who looks like he is rounding into Geneva-type form in a lesser tournament. How apropos.

Zverve is winning matches on grass without needing tiebreaks. I mean, like Kyrgios, he can be captivating. He has broken serve seven times in four sets, again, on grass. That is impressive. Goffin is a below 0.500 career player on grass and he wins around 55% of his second serve points on grass. He won 53% on second serve against Albot and dropped a set doing so. He’ll have to do a lot better than that against Zverev. I think Zverev will pounce and break Goffin a few times. I’m on Zverev.

London

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I can’t get a read on FAA. He is obviously way better than I am able to appreciate. I expect he’ll continue to roll. But, he doesn’t have enough stats to make a solid judgement on it for me. So, I’ll pass.

Raonic is rolling. Of course. He was somehow broken twice by Bedene but, in turn, broken Bedene three times. On three chances. The Missile is throwing down a record number of aces (Isner, Muller and Lopez have all breached 30 aces but, in three sets - Raonic threw down 24 in 9 fucking games). Lopez is great on grass, their hold/break stats on grass aren’t that far apart on grass, there will probably be a tiebreak and Raonic will probably win it. These two have played seven times and Lopez has won the last two but, they were before Raonic really ascended.

How is Diego in this match? Medvedev seems to have found his footing again and I think this might be the biggest blowout of the day. DSS has wonderful 2018 grass stats but they were compiled in only three matches against the 78th, 93rd, and 98th ranked players on tour. He went 1-2. Meds is great on grass and should exploit the holds in Schwartzman’s grass game. Mainly, skipping ground strokes past the Argentine. I’ll take the handicap.

I don’t bet Gilles Simon matches. It’s bad for my health.

Coric -1.5, -138
Raonic/Zverev ml, +104
Medvedev -3.5, -125

Good luck