ATP Tennis 2019 June 22

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Trolls were out in abundance today. I’m not sure what brings that on. It’s all free here. I don’t charge for picks. I don’t slather everyone in ads (which could easily, easily, easily change). I publish some sort of info every single day. And I post fucking tickets all time.

I went 1-1, Meds fucking rolled. Like, exactly how I laid it out. If you don’t want that kind of info for free, than hey, the unfollow button is also free.

Raonic and Zverev both lost. If you called those losses then, hey, congrats. Show me a ticket. Otherwise, I mean, they both won the first set, they both lost third set tiebreaks. Zverev was up a break in the third. It’s not like they got crushed.

Some dude complained to me because Coric lost. LOL. What? Listen, I am super upfront about the fact I use bet365 almost exclusively. One of the reasons is they void all retirements (including unders and yet still pay overs the second they cash). I wrote extensively about how voiding retirements has fucked me this year. I started the 0-9!!!!!!!!!!!!! NINE of my bets were up a set, up a set AND a break, or up a break in the third AND ALL THEIR OPPONENTS RETIRED. That’s an unreal run. Since then I have gone 3-1 (Coric being the third today). I am still 3-10 on retirements in 2019. That’s insane. That’s about $650, if you factor juice, that I simply got voided out of my account. So don’t bitch at me about your fucking book settling after the first set. You pick your poison. It’ll even out. Just remember, you could be 3-10.

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Berrettini love. Let’s hope he makes the final.

Halle

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Fed should win. His line is unplayable outside of some kind of a parlay and even then, it’s tough to make a case.

I am doubling down on Berrettini. I can’t be sure Goffin should be here. He looked completely outclassed in the first set against Zverev. And then benefited from a complete meltdown (Zverev is in a dark fucking place). Berrettini won’t have the same issues Zverev did. Berrettini has dropped one total set on grass in 2019 and been broken one time (93/94 in service games!!!!). I don’t suspect Berrettini will have too many more lapses. He is also breaking serve 22% of the time. If Zverev can break Goffin three times, Berrettini can too. This is also Berrettini’s attempt to make his fourth final of the year, already. He won’t be nervous. This line is on the move too. I first saw it at -163. I locked in my bet at -185. It’s now at -200 (and higher at some books). I suspect this closes closer to -250.

Queens

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FAA remains a stay away. I can’t get a read on how good he is. The stats available aren’t a big enough sample for me. He has made three finals and a Masters semi this year and lost in straights in all of them. He has been fairly dominant in 2019 but, when he loses, he loses bad. And Lopez is stellar on grass. And maybe motivated for one last title. A whole lot of stuff going on here that I don’t want to try and handicap.

Meds. Rolling. On grass. The stats don’t justify this but, they didn’t against Schwartzman yesterday either. I hate betting Simon matches but, he officially played the longest match in Queens/London history on Friday and Medvedev can rally all day. I expect it to be tight early and for Simon to fade. If Meds wins the first set 64 or 75 or 76 (enough to tire Simon a little) I’ll be on Meds second set handicap as well.

Medvedev/Berrettini/Fed ml, +107 (Added Fed to get over the zero)

Good luck