When I run hot, I’m hot. When I run cold, it’s like a fucking iceberg hitting the Titanic. 0-4 yesterday and down about $1,000 in the last three days. Incredible after almost erasing my -$3,000 hole. I was up almost $2,000 in June before Thursday.
All four outrights died. Again. Haven’t hit a grass one yet. Hoping that changes this week. Two small tournaments get started on Monday and I’ll have one or two longshots before Wimbledon rolls around.
The BangTheBook article and the BallBoyz podcast will be up Sunday afternoon.
As stated last Sunday, Fed owns Halle. It’s kind of incredible. In 74 matches here he is 67-7 and he has only ever dropped 30 sets. He has won this title 9 times, 3 times without dropping a set. He’s dropped two sets already this week and he’s played a bunch of tight matches. So, I don’t expect this to be any different. I still think Fed gets it done in two though. Want to know a weird stat? Fed’s won this nine times, right; well six times have been in straights. The three times he dropped a set? All tiebreaks - to Safin in ‘05, to Berdych in ‘06, and to Youzhny in ‘13. So, I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking a tiebreak to be played at-120 and/or Fed to win 2-1 at +350. I just don’t think the odds are big enough for either. What I will do, is go with my tried and true formula with Fed. I’ll parlay his 2-0 number (in only two of Fed’s wins over Goffin has the Belgian taken a set and like I said above Fed has swept the final six times) and I’ll look to back Goffin on the set handicaps (in three of the six completed matches Fed won with Goffin, Goffin covered +2.5 in the final set and Fed is 50/50 this week at covering it).
Do you believe in destiny? There’s a great/corny 80’s movie with Jim Belushi that feels appropriate here. Except, well this is tennis, not baseball and Lopez is a sight better looking than Belushi (according to Judy Murray). I have the distinct feeling Lopez is raising two trophies on Sunday. He is playing great tennis, winning tight matches, making comebacks, averaging 15 aces per match, and most importantly, 5-2, including 4-0 on grass, against Gilles Simon. I suck at betting on Gilles Simon matches (I bet on Meds yesterday and what do you know, Simon won) but, this feels like something even I can’t fuck up.
I don’t like anything in Antalya qualies. Troicki is priced too far out to provide value, Darcis is very up and down since taking a year off and I don’t know enough about the other four players on grass to make a wager.
I like all kinds of stuff in the Eastbourne qualies. Fabbiano has actually spent some time on grass and while he doesn’t have 100+ hold/break numbers he has vastly more experience than Londero does. He’s also played a few matches already this year. I’ll chance it on a cheap price.
Kudla is great on grass, especially against some of the lesser lights and Challenger level players on tour. He should look after James Ward without too much issue.
I won’t touch Rublev. He is all over the map the last 18 months and this Jubb kid beat Istomin on grass yesterday.
Bublik is decent on grass, has beaten Sandgren twice before (albeit on hards) and Sandgren, for all his hard court success, has never won a grass match at the ATP level. I’ll take the Kazak.
There are, ridiculously, two main draw matches in Antalya on Sunday. I have no interest in Munar/Kec, as neither has a ton of grass experience.
I do like Sousa though. He is known as a clay player but, his stats on grass are not horrible. He has kept his hold/break numbers on the surface near or above 100, he is close to a 0.500 player in tiebreaks, which is important on grass, and he has already spent some time on the green stuff in 2019. He actually did alright in Halle, dispatching Sinner, Kecmanovic and Hurkacz, three solid young stars, before running into Borna Coric (who Sousa pushed to a third set tiebreak). Sonego is no Borna Coric. I like Sousa here.
Fed 2-0/Lopez ml, +121
Sousa/Bublik ml, +140
Kudla/Fabbiano ml, +133