Oh man, I was a Dustin Brown win away from a huge day and a second straight Mr. Perfect. Damn close. Still, I’ll take it. Reads seem spot on, I’m +$800 in June and grass season is in the air. I had another wonderful live play go right and as I re-capped on Twitter, that live play on the 3rd or 4th set handicap with a huge favorite is now 6-0 at the French. Very fun.
Hey. I fucked up another hedge. What can I say, I’m a slow learner. Who drops $300 to protect $75? This guy, right here. Oh well, tomorrow is another day. I’ll have to give some thought to this - I’be been here now five times, a huge, almost triple digit outright into the quarters of a big event. And I have yet to really, really make money of it. What I can say is, at least I am identifying the picks. At some point one of these motherfuckers will pay off.
Call me sentimental, call me a fool, but, I’m not betting against Stan here. All I keep thinking about the last 24 hours is Nadal - Djoker at the Aussie. Everyone, me included, kept talking about how Nadal was rolling through that draw and hadn’t dropped a set and had a new serve and was healthy on hards… then Djokovic made him look like a juniors player. Fed is into this quarter without dropping a set. That is true. Has he dominated though? Maybe against Mayer. But, in the first three I actually made money betting on his opponents late in matches. Has Fed been tested yet? Not even remotely. Sonego was #73, Otte was #145, Ruud was #64, and Mayer was #68. That is a laughably easy path to the quarters. Wawrinka, conversely, has had to face Cristian Garin, one of only four people on tour with two titles this year, Dimitrov, a former top ten player and Tsitsipas, currently one of the best players in the world. It’s true, Stan may be tired. And it’s true, Fed kind of owns his countryman (22-3 h2h). But, all three of Stan’s wins have come on clay, one of them here, and man, he is match fit. Maybe Fed runs away with this but, I just don’t see it. I really like it to at least go four sets but, the over/under is set at 39.5 and as I pointed out, CORRECTLY, yesterday with Zverev/Fog there was has been a whack of four set unders this tournament. So, I’m off the total too. Straight sets = NO at -150, total sets = 4 at +175, and over 3.5 sets (which I don’t have a price for yet) are three props I will probably spend some lunch money on (depending on how Surbiton goes in the morning). This is a pass for me.
This could be ugly. I hope the Fed-Stan match delivers. Nishikori against the Big Three in the last few years has not turned out well, at all. These guys have played twelve times, Rafa’s won ten and one of Nishikori’s wins was the bronze medal match at the Olympics, where I am not sure Rafa showed up. In their four matches on clay (both their best surface) Nishi has won one set and lost nine. When they played at Roland Garros in 2013 Rafa easily covered the -9.5. Nishi is coming off back-to-back five setters and a tough four setter against Tsonga. Rafa is in cruise control. Nadal has actually failed to cover some -10.5 lines this fortnight but, we are graced with a -9.5 today. I’ll be on that. I’ll also be on Rafa to win the first set 63 at +210 and Rafa to win the first set 62 at +400 for lunch money; one of those two should come in. Additionally, the third set live handicap should be solid here. -2.5 at -120 or -3.5 at +100 are usually where these have been lined. We’ll see with Rafa. I’m guessing it could be a little more expensive. This should be a truck though.
There is a ton of action in Surbiton. In the first round, I like Mirza Basic. He’s actually played on grass at an ATP level and Moriya has lost a bunch in a row. Cheap price.
Luke Saville is a good parlay option. He had a decent Challenger grass season in 2018 and Ilkel has very little grass experience.
Lopez on grass. Yes. I suck at totals, but, the o22.5 here should be an option. Tiebreak city.
Karlovic is old. He may be rejuvenated by grass but, grass is also Sugita’s best surface. The Japanese isn’t afraid of a tiebreak and this is a nice big number.
Ramanthan. On grass. On any continent. He’s my boy. Grunts and all.
Staks on grass is also a good thing. Plus, we’re fading an Irish guy. I’m Irish. We’re not good at tennis.
Ebden on grass is very Ramanathan-like.
Rafa -9.5, -120
Basic ml, -125
Sugita ml, +162
Ramanathan ml, +100
Stak/Lopez ml, +104
Ebden/Saville ml, +114