ATP Tennis 2019 March 10, Indian Wells Day 4


Is this real? Feels like a nightmare. Or a surreal out of body experience. I am 2-9 at Indian Wells and 7-20 in my last 27 bets over the last two weeks. I don’t even know what to say. Kyrgios decided not to show up, surprise. Coric got broken three times by Ivo fucking Karlovic and Basilashvili lost two tiebreaks to a guy who has two career ATP wins at 29. Whatever.

Screen Shot 2019-03-10 at 9.23.47 AM.png

Oh ya, and Tsitsipas is unable to beat FAA. 0-4 now lifetime. Amazing. Hurkacz still lives at 300/1 and Federer hasn’t played a match yet, so there is hope.

The idea of a Djokovic moneyline rollover parlay is probably on thin ice now, with both Kyrgios and Coric going down in their first matches. He is lined at -1600 tomorrow against Kohl. Then it is probably Monfils at about -700. Monfils will have to actually BE the Black Panther to beat Djokovic (0-15 lifetime). Then it is Thiem and hopefully Zverev. Those are probably lined in the -300 range. If he gets Fed in the final it still might get over +200. Any more upsets around him though and this easily crashes down to +110/+120 range.

Day Four

Screen Shot 2019-03-10 at 10.48.13 AM.png
Screen Shot 2019-03-10 at 10.48.26 AM.png

NIshikori has all the statistical advantages I would normally look for but, I generally stay away from matches lined above -500 and -4.5 games. Add to that the fact that there has already been 13!!!! dogs of +200 or greater to win this week and these are easy stay aways.

It is pretty much common sense to throw a full unit on Pouille here, blindly, and if he wins it covers the Tistty future and all three lottery tickets and buys you a hamburger. Pouille is the much more accomplished hard court player and on paper he should roll over the Pole. The flip side of the that, lathered in greed, is that Pouille is 1-3 here lifetime, basically took February off of after having a great Aussie Open so he may be rusty and unmotivated, and if Mannarino pulls the upset before these two take the court (Mannarino/Nishi is at 2pm local) Hurkacz may be seeing a chance to make a splash. I’ll pass on this match and avoid the hedge. Just cheer hard for the kid.

Shapo and Johnson have nearly identical stats across every category I track, including each being 3-3 in their last three tournaments. There is no edge here. If the total was 22.5 instead of 23.5 I would probably be on the over. As is though, I’ll pass.

Cilic kind of owns Lajovic. They have played twice and neither has been even close. One of them was at Miami too, which is even slower than Indian Wells, so you can throw out the “this is a slower surface” argument. The issue is Cilic hasn’t looked great this year, he got upset in round one in Dubai and he has a real lack of success in Indian Wells historically. Easy pass.

Is this the biggest market over-reaction ever? Fognini declares he no longer wants to play the Golden Swing, proceeds to tank the entire month. Well, he told us what was going to happen. Albot wins Delray Beach, beating one top 50 player en route (Steve Johnson, who is hardly having a good year). Now, Albot is favored? I’ll take the plus money. Thanks.

Nic Jarry just keeps losing. Kyle Edmund is coming off a title in the Indian Wells Challenger last week. Of course, it’s hard to quantify that title; the familiarization with the setting should help but he didn’t really beat anyone other than Rublev on the way and Rublev has fallen out of the top 100 (I know he is still a talented young player, though). This looks priced pretty accurate and I’ll pass.

Stan should come through here but I expect it won’t be easy. He played Fucsovics three times last year, all on hard courts and struggled with him each time. They present as very equal statistically but, we know Stan usually outperforms those metrics. If I had an exact score market, I’d bet Stan 76,64.

Federer is 9-8 at covering 6 games in his first match at Indian Wells. Gojo played Fed tight the first time they met up and he has already played a match here this week where he generated 11 break point opportunities. This feels like Gojo could keep this close, if Djokovoic’s first match struggles and all the other upsets are any indication. But, Fed obviously has massive statistical advantages on hardcourts and massive experience at this venue. I also think Fed comes in super motivated. He showed in his last two matches in Dubai, he can still turn it on when he is feeling it. The -5.5 is at even money and I think we could see Gojo fade in the second set the way Fratangelo did last night. A lot may depend on the coin flip here but, hopefully Fed can serve first in one of the sets and it produces a 63,63 or 64,62 type of scoreline. Fed -5.5 (way outside my comfort zone).

Isner is over-priced. I’ll sit back and cheer on my outright.

Pella seems cheap here. Massive hold/break advantages on hard courts. A slow venue which seems to be favoring clay players, a surface on which Pella is the most recent champ. Pella has had a full six days to recover from his Sao Paulo title and whatever partying he may have done. Pella has been to Indian Wells five times previously so, he should be aware of the conditions and that should blunt whatever advantage Bolt might have from playing last week in the Challenger event. I’ll take the cheap handicap here.

Maybe I am a sucker for Russian prospects. Maybe I am sucker for fading Robin Haase. Maybe both. Rublev might be turning a corner. He went to finals last week in the Indian Wells Challenger, he almost qualified for this event on his own merit (blew two match points in the second set against Fratangelo and then melted down), and now as a lucky loser into the second round with an opponent like Robin Haase he must see the window of opportunity here. He gets through here and he may get an out of form Khachanov or a semi-retired Lopez in the third round. Even despite his struggles, Rublev has better hard court stats than Haase across the last two years and has beaten him twice. I’ll take the handicap here and hope for more Rublev improvement.

Man, would I love to bet Khachanov here. Lopez is on the semi-retirement tour, he squeezed past Berdych in round one winning 92 points to Berdych’s 88 and not creating a single break chance. These two played on outdoor hards two years ago and KK routined Lopez 3 and 4. The hold back today is clearly Khachanov’s 2019 form. KK is 2-5 on the year, he is riding a four match losing streak and his two wins came against guys ranked in the 60’s. I expect Khachanov to win here, somehow, but it is not worth a bet.

Medvedev outdoors, against someone lower than him in the rankings, as a favorite. Where have I seen that before? Meds holds all the statistical advantages here and has beaten McDonald before, at a windy event, outdoors (a match I attended in person). This is an easy parlay piece.

Krajinovic played in the Challenger event last week and lost to Jason Jung. Not impressive. But, he also got through qualifying here and the first round against Kukushkin without dropping a set. So, maybe he is rounding into form? Goffin hasn’t had the greatest of starts to 2019 but every loss is probably slightly explainable. He missed much of 2018 and the loss to Berankis seemed more rust than anything else. He lost to Medvedev which doesn’t mean much, Meds has proven to be one of the hotter players on tour this year. He lost to Monfils in Rotterdam, which Monfils won. He lost to Tsitsipas in Marseille, which Tsitsipas won. His one bizarre loss so far was to…. Krajinovic. How do you spell ‘revenge’? Ya, that looks right. Goffin has a solid advantage in hold/break numbers across the past two years, he’s beaten Krajinovic twice before and he has been to Indian Wells a few times before, making a semi-final run in 2016. This will be parlayed with Meds.

Schwartzman hasn’t had much luck in Indian Wells, despite the fact that the surface should suit him. This is an easy avoid considering the price.

Tell me how Federer can be -2000 on the moneyline and -5.5, +100 games when Nadal is -1600 on the moneyline and yet -5.5, -150 on the games? Bizarre. And too expensive at -150 to risk the coin flip of if/when Nadal will serve first. Nadal should, I repeat, should, pummel Donaldson but, I’ll stay away.

Rublev -2.5, -120
Fognini ml, +100
Federer -5.5, +100
Pella -2.5, -120
Medvedev/Goffin ml, -125

Good luck