ATP Tennis 2019 March 11, Indian Wells Day 5


Well, not a winning day but two wins nonetheless. A step in the right direction. Shame on me for betting on Fognini… again. I’m not sure what is wrong with Goffin but, he was broken SIX times by Krajinovic; I feel like this calls for Allen Iverson - “We talkin’ ‘bout Krajnovic. Krajinovic. Not Djokovic. We talkin’ ‘about Krajinovic”.

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Thankfully Federer, Isner, Hurkacz all survived, so that’s fun. I’ll get the Djoker rollover started today. Maybe I can jinx him into losing to pave the way for Fed.

Day Five

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Djokovic didn’t look stellar against Fratangelo but he got the job done. I expect the same on Monday. Djokovic has beaten Kohl seven straight times dating back to 2010 and Djoker hasn’t dropped a set in the last four. There have been plenty of close sets though - the spread is -5.5 and Djoker hasn’t covered that in their last three. I’ll just expect Djoker to win.

Monfils has, the only proper word I think is, dramatic advantages in hold/break numbers on hard courts over Ramos-Vinolas. He has played Ramos twice, once here in Indian Wells and once on clay, so you can’t write off Monfils’ advantages. People may point to ARV running through his first two rounds (he has played only 33 games to Monfils’ 28 despite playing two matches to Monfils’ one) but he played Dzumhur, who literally failed to show up and Cecchinato, who has well documented troubles on hard courts. I made the mistake of passing on Nadal -5.5 yesterday because of the -150 price… I don’t want to do the same here. But, -4.5 and -150 are both just outside my comfort range. I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking it though.

I have no idea how Gunneswaran is in the third round. He served 58% in the first round against Paire, double faulted more often than he hit aces, and he was broken three times. He similarly served 60% against Basil and broken twice there too. What he is doing well is winning tiebreaks. He’s won two crucial ones. That should revert to the mean today - he is 11-18 career at the Challenger level. The same could be said of Ivo though, he has actually gone 3-0 in tiebreaks this week and for a guy who is running at .500 for his career he is bound to lose one soon too. What I see though, is that the slower surface is actually helping Karlovic get into some return games. He was able to break both Coric and Ebden twice. That’s impressive. I see a 64,76 type Ivo win and I can’t imagine Gunny is going to keep playing at this level. Ill chance Ivo 2-0 here for plus money.

Gilles Simon, woof. Thiem and Simon have played a whopping ten times. Thiem has dominated this head-to-head, winning eight times. I have no desire to get involved here though as Thiem looked far from dominant in his first match. I’ll pass on this.

Much like Monfils, Thiem, and Djoker, there is considerable head-to-head dominance for Zverev here and considerable hold/break advantages. But, the match is priced accordingly. The -4.5 handicap is just outside my comfort zone and Struff has managed to steal a set a few times in these matches. Zverev probably rolls but, it’s not worth the risk the way I am running.

Here is something that seems mis-priced. Raonic is hardly blowing people away in 2019. In his seven three set matches in 2019 (including this week) he has cleared the 21.5 total every time (failing only against Bedene in the first match of the year when Raonic pummelled the Slovenian). Giron has gone three sets in both qualifying matches and one main draw match this week. The first round match that ended in two sets went 76,76 in his favour. Giron is a Challenger level player and the only match he played in 2019 prior to Indian Wells against a top 50 player was against Taylor Fritz… and it went three sets. I’ll take the over 21.5.

I would imagine FAA keeps rolling but I don’t have a read on him or his game. Nishioka is coming off a decent upset, does well on clay, and has beaten FAA before. I’ll pass.

Kecmanovic is favoured? This feels like a backwards line. Djere is 8-2 in his last ten matches over four tournaments, these courts are playing slow enough that he should be comfortable - he routined Andreozzi 3 and 4 in his first match, landing 65% of his first serves and generating eight break points. Djere should win this. I hesitate to take dog price just based on how poorly I am running, the fact that Kecmanovic is playing with a 100% hold/break number in early 2019 and the fact that Kec is coming into this as the beneficiary of a lucky loser spot in the second round! (see:Rublev). Pass.

Karlovic 2-0, +120
Giron/Raonic o21.5, -138
Djokovic -1400 outright rollover (you could parlay this with Monfls and Zverev for -250, probably safe as a first step on the rollover).

Good luck