ATP Tennis 2019 March 12, Indian Well Day 6


Anytime you go without a loss in a day, it’s cause to bust out the Mr. Perfect. And those days have been few and far between since January.

Karlovic won another tiebreak, Gunny came back to earth, losing a tiebreak. Giron held up his end of the bargain. Everything went according to plan. I avoided some pitfalls like FAA and Zverev. A rare good day.

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Unfortunately, I need like 10 more days like that, in a row, to climb out of a $2,000 hole. Good thing the futures are still doing well. Hurkacz and Fed and Isner all play today. I need to find a way to make a few dollars of these fellas.

Day 6

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This is as easy as you want it to be. I’m down $70 on futures so far this week with Tsitty, Fritz and Ivashka crashing out early. $100 on Nishikori today pays for the three lottery tickets. $200 on Nishikori would get Tsitty covered too. That still leaves like $2,800 of room on Hurkacz should he win.
Of course, Hubie did beat Nishikori two weeks ago on indoor hards. This is a tad different, as it’s outdoors, in windier conditions and slower courts. That should all suit Nishikori. Add in the revenge factor and the statistical advantages and this looks like a Kei truck.
What gives me hope is Kei still doesn’t look right. He needed a third set tiebreak to squeak past Adrain Mannarino, who is likewise having a terrible 2019. Hurkacz must see a less than 100% Cilic and a less than stellar Shapo ahead, a chance to make the 4th round of a Master Series event already. He is confident he can handle Nishikori and hopefully he has rid himself of the nerves he displayed near the end of the match against Pouille. I’ll be greedy and let this ride. I’ll be looking live at Nishikori near even money if Hurkacz breaks first or wins a first set tb.

I traditionally avoid Cilic during the Sunshine Double (he’s 10-11 in Indian Wells and 11-10 in Miami lifetime). No thanks, regardless of how he looked versus Dusan Lajovic. The stats aren’t even that much in favor of Cilic. Conversely, Shapo isn’t really having a stand-out 2019. He hasn’t won more than two matches in a row at any point in time since Tokyo, last October. Prior to Tokyo you have to go back to…. Madrid, last May. Ouch. I expect Cilic to win, the price seems low and I don’t want any part of it because Cilic sucks in March. Total pass.

Edmund has won six straight matches in Indian Wells, dropping only two sets along the way. He didn’t beat anyone in the top 100 last week and he played a struggling Jarry in his first match this week so it’s hard to know what to make of form. But, winning is winning. And Albot is in a similar situation - he is also coming in off seven straight wins. Albot made his way to a title in Delray beating a mixed collection of players and dropping a set almost every time. This week he has trucked Mariuz Copil and Fabio Fognini. I’m going to go in on, what looks like, a healthy Kyle Edmund. He’s never dropped a set to Albot, he’s beaten him on hards and on clay and he dropped two whole games to Jarry. I’ll parlay this moneyline in case Albot makes it dicey.

Federer owns Wawrinka. 21-3. All three Wawrinka wins have come on clay., two in Monte Carlo where Fed may have cared a little less than 100% (it’s a non-madatory Masters events) and once at Roland Garros when Stan was maybe in peak-Wawrinka mode for his whole career (he beat Djokovic four days later). They’ve actually played at Indian Wells three times, and Stan has won one set (in a tiebreak). On top of all that head-to-head noise, Stan has played two gruelling three setters here this week, already. The one on Sunday night was three and a half hours against Fucsovics. Fed is on a mission this week, in my opinion, and I can’t see him losing to Wawrinka here. This will be parlayed with Edmund.

This could be real trouble for Isner. Pella is playing solid tennis, just came off clay, which Indian Wells is obviously mirroring, and Pella has beaten Isner before. Pella is also doing extremely well in tiebreaks recently, of which I am sure there will be one or two today. He won the tiebreak against Bolt in round two and he won all five tiebreaks he played on the Golden Swing during his run to a title and another final. Their hard court stats are nearly identical when it comes to hold/break numbers in 2018 and 2017. I’m plenty nervous here and at 100/1 on the Isner outright I will be looking to spend on Pella at a juiced number should he steal a tiebreak in order to cover this future.

I have no read on Rublev and Khachanov. Two guys I bet on all the time but, who are both mired in a weird spot. Khachanov is having a brutal 2019 and I hardly think a three set win over a retiring Lopez is a “re-set” on the year. Rublev is so hot and cold that I just can’t trust which guy is going to show up - the one who went to the finals last week in a Challenger or the guy who couldn’t make it through qualifying this week? I’ll pass on this.

The other Russian I love. Man, is Medvedev ever getting juiced out by the books. -334? -3.5 games? Those are wild numbers. Krajinovic hasn’t dropped a set this week through four matches, including qualies. You could say he has found his form and some conditions that he is comfortable in. Meds is maybe having the best outdoor hardcourt season outside of Djokovic on tour, so I can certainly see him running away with this. I’m just not going to spend to find out. What I’ll do, is watch this match and see if Kraj can steal an early break then grab Meds on the handicap at a smaller number. Meds has an amazing ability to win sets in which he gets broken first so, if he gets down 3-1, for example, the handicap should drop to an expensive -1.5 or an even money -2.5 and I’ll grab that.

DSS is 0-6 against Nadal but, he has made it close a number of times. I usually don’t cap matches lined like this and I would say given Nadal’s form (61,61 in round two) coupled with Schwartzman’s history of stealing the odd set off Rafa (and/or making sets competitive) I would stay away from this one.

Edmund/Fed ml, -125

Meds live if he gets down early but looks ok
Pella live, at a small juiced number, if he wins the first set to cover Isner outright
Nishikori live if he drops the first break/set to cover the Hurkcz outright and maybe some other already dead outrights

Good luck