ATP Tennis 2019 March 14, Indian Wells Day 8

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Man, I am just missing on the smallest of margins this year. And it is killing me. I’ve been taking some heat lately for my daily picks record…. well, after Rafa yesterday (had break points for 4-1 in the second set and 0*-30 twice on return) I have now lost countless bets by the hook (I gave up counting losses by the hook when I reached double digits in mid-February). Add even 25% of those losses back and the EIGHT retirements (against ZERO in my favour) that have cost me money so far in 2019… and I am profitable. Small margins, excuses, whatever. Bitter Billy over here.

Hurkacz lives. At 300/1. Fed lives at 5.5/1 x 2 (each/way). They play each other tomorrow. Bet365 apparently hates that.

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No cashout allowed on Federer. And an insulting offer on a 300/1 shot. I’ll have to figure out something tomorrow for that.

Day 8

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How do you cap these messes? Monfils is in peak-Wakanda-Monfils form (I love this Wakanda comparison that Monfils/Twitter has come up with). The question remains can this G.E.M.S/Wakanda version of Monfils overcome some of the completely silly head-to-head’s he has with elite players on tour? I love to use Berdych as the example of this phenomenon because he is the most striking example during my time documenting tennis (I sure wasn’t tracking h2h’s when I was 10 watching Becker/Chang). But, plenty of other players suffer this same Berdych-fate and Monfils is one. 0-15 vs Djokovic, 2-14 vs Nadal, 4-9 vs Federer and 0-4 vs Thiem. Monfils can beat he is supposed to, often loses, badly, to those above him in the pecking order. None of the sets with Thiem have gone past ten games. These are trucks.
I don’t see a lot between these two on hard courts - if you discount 2019, their hold/break stats are essentially the same. This may be the perfect surface for both - clay is obviously Thiem’s best surface by a decent margin and he performs well on a slower hard court (four straight 4th rd appearances at the US Open) while Monfils is also solid on clay (he wins over 60% on the surface) because he can get to everything (he’s been to six clay finals in his career, including a Masters 1000 final). Can 2019 Monfils (who has WAY better hold/break numbers) over come an 0-4 head-to-head? I don’t want to find out. Instead, I’ll dig into a prop bet.
In their four previous matches, as noted above, no set has gone past ten games, and so far in Indian Wells they have both played three matches, six or seven sets each, and exactly the same number of games, 57. Neither has played a tiebreak. I find the idea that ‘tiebreak played =no’ in this match is only -138. It’s a prop bet but, I can’t go a day without a bet, right? (ok, maybe I have a ‘problem’).

I’m actively trying to avoid Raonic matches after his collapse at the Aussie. The one match I have bet on since, an over between him and Stan, saw him, similarly collapse. He holds every statistical advantage here, has beaten Kecmanovic before and is playing a tournament where he is obviously super comfortable (19-7 career, multiple trips to the semis). Kec, however, is ‘hot’. Since losing to Giron in the last round of qualies he has been granted a lucky loser spot and proceeded to not drop a set. Now, he hasn’t played anyone near Raonic’s calibre, so this is a big step up. I don’t see an angle here, maybe Kec plus games considering Raonic is not steamrolling anyone? I’ll pass.

Thiem/Monfils, no tiebreaks, -138

Good lukc