ATP Tennis 2019 March 23, Miami Day 4

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What a shock, I lost another bet by the hook. And I got to watch Nishikori literally implode from 6-2, 1*-1; he won a total of FOUR more games.

FAA was full marks for a nice win. Ugly match though. Errors everywhere.

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Zverev and Tsitsipas get underway today. Monfils’ money should be refunded as he never hit a ball.

I’m pretty pumped for Zverev and Tsitty given the conditions. They should make the quarters for a blockbuster.

Day 4

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The line offered for Anderson should tell you all you need to know. This guy is a multi-time Slam finalist and he is… -175. No idea what his health is and I’ll just pass.

Johnson and Sousa have eerily similar stats considering one guy is a “clay” guy and one guy is a “hard court” guy. I’ll gladly avoid this match. If you had to bet it, I would go Sousa or the over.

Dimitrov, like Anderson, hasn’t played since the Aussie. But, he is playing against a guy who may no longer be at the top of his game either. These two have played five times and other than a match when Dimitrov was a teenager, they have all cruised over the posted total with lots of tiebreaks. I’ll chance the over. You could even sell a game because I don’t see a lot of difference between 23.5 and 24.5… there are no eleven game sets.

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Throw out Khachanov’s 2019 stats. Something about the wrong racquet. Or so social media tells me. Take a look at the stats from the last year, when Khachanov broke out. Domination. Last week in Indian Wells KK made the quarters, showing he can handle the slower conditions and keep up with the big boys. I like Khachanov here in a parlay.

Medvedev has had some rough losses in February and March. While the stats, whether hold/break the last two years or their career numbers on hards, would point heavily to Medvedev, Mannarino has beaten him all three times they have played. So, I’ll pass on this.

I don’t see an edge with Opelka and Schwartzman. Schwartzman has small advantages across each of the last three years in hold/break numbers but Opelka is on the rise (Indian Wells, aside). I’ll avoid this.

How do you get in front of Krajinovic? He literally rolled through Indian Wells. Before running into Nadal he won five matches without dropped a set. He was only pushed beyond ten games once. Conversely, Stan hasn’t been blowing anyone away. He was pushed to three sets with both Dan Evans and Fucsovics before being beaten, again, by Fed last week. Their stats are also super similar. I’ll pass on this.

Fed rolls. Easy parlay piece to get something into plus money.

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I have a future on Tsitsipas. He better get through this. I won’t have a bet here but, based on hold/break comparison Tsitsipas should roll. I am hoping bombing out of Indian Wells early will have Tsitsipas rested and ready to go.

Mayer and Pella… five matches, almost identical hold/break stats on hard courts, yet both Argentines raised on clay. I’d play the over if you wanted action. I’ll pass.

Dan Evans has played Shapo twice, both on hard courts, and beaten him both times. Evans is playing great tennis and may have gotten a raw deal in qualies. He rectified it immediately by destroying Jaziri in round one as a lucky loser, 62, 60. He should be playing with a huge chip on his shoulder and Shapo is coming off three matches in Indian Wells and may just not be ready. I’m not sure Shapo beat anyone of consequence in Indian Wells (Cilic is not in form nor is Johnson). I’ll grab Evans at plus money.

Pass on all Cilic matches for the immediate future.

Before beating Eubanks two days ago, Dzumhur had only two wins on the season. And beating Eubanks in a third set tiebreak is no season-rectifiying moment. Cecchinato doesn’t have many wins on hard courts but these courts are playing pretty slow and I think he can take advantage of an out of form Dzumhur. I’ll parlay this to get the juice down.

Goffin shouldn’t lose but, I don’t see a way to bet this.

It is best for my health to avoid all Tiafoe matches. I hope he wins, as a match with Zverev would be must see tv.

I have a future on Zverev, so I won’t have action here. The line seems low and that probably is due to some of the struggles AZ has had with Ferrer. They have played a bunch of times and Zverev has come out on top most of the time lately.

Dimitrov/Lopez o23.5, -110
Evans ml, +137
Cecchinato/Khachanov/Federer ml, +120

Good luck