Zverev crashes out early. I mentioned he frequently struggles with Ferrer but, I didn’t see that loss coming. The guy is certainly perplexing.
All hopes rest with Tsitsipas. I am pretty confident in him. I called a solid run here way back during the Marseille tournament so let’s hope I am bang on with that. Having Zverev out of the way opens up a nice path to the semis.
Dp I back Djokovic again on the massive -5.5 handicap? I obviously did it on Friday night and he missed by the hook. Now that he is, hopefully, rust-free does he roll over Delbonis? Djokovic has massive hold/break advantages on either hard courts or clay courts but oddly enough the only two Masters Series events that Delbonis has ever advanced past the second round at have been Indian Wells and Miami - slow hard courts. I’ll pass.
This is one of those odd head-to-head’s that throw you off when trying to handicap a match. RBA has every statistical advantage I would want to see in a tennis match and a price that makes him good for a parlay. Yet, he has somehow lost to Fognini seven times. When a head-to-head gets that lopsided, even when they are not relevant to the surface or that recent, it usually means one guy has figured the other guy out. These kinds of differences don’t usually regress. I’ll pass here because i just don’t trust Fognini who barely scrapped by Andreozzi in round two.
It’s hard to throw a bet down on Raonic when he hasn’t played a ball yet in either of the first two rounds. I would suspect he beats Edmund but I’ll avoid this match.
Isner and ARV have played twice before, both on clay, and both were tiebreak filled, three set marathons. These courts aren’t clay but they are amoung the slowest hard courts on tour. Isner needed two tiebreaks to get past Sonego and ARV presents much the same challenges.
I’ll take the over 22.5 games.
Two emerging stars in FAA and Hubie. I don’t want to be involved here but make some time in your schedule around 3 or 4 pm EST to watch this match.
I’m so glad Haase has made round three. It gives me another chance to fade him. Haase has been gifted a spot in the third round, getting to beat #130th ranked Lukas Lacko in the first round, where Lacko served 59% and Haase had to save seven break points. Then Haase got to avoid a seeded player in round two and got lucky loser Lloyd Harris. Haase still dropped a set and had to face another eleven break points while Harris served a dismal 55%. Haase won’t have those luxuries against Basilashvili. Basher’s two titles last year were on outdoor hards and clay, he is suited to this environment and he looked solid in putting away Mischa with ease. This line looks low and I’ll parlay it in case Haase somehow steals a set.
Coric has looked shaky and Chardy rolled over a frequent concern of his in Gilles Simon on Friday. These two have split their head-to-head two and two and their hold/break numbers are identical so far in 2019. Easy pass.
I’ve been sucked in by Kyrgios again. It’s not enticing that he had to save seven break points against Bublik but he did serve a whopping 75% on first serve, hammer down nine aces and break the Kazak twice. I think Lajovic benefited from a collapse on Nishikori’s part and he is facing a serious uphill battle against NK. Kyrgios has massive hold/break advantages on hard courts and smacked Lajovic in Key Biscayne last year. I’ll parlay Kyrgios.
ARV/Isner o22.5, -138
Basilashvili/Kyrgios ml, -117