ATP Tennis 2019 March 25, Miami Day 6

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Finally some things started bouncing my way. ARV and Isner played a third tight match and Basher and Nyrgios both showed up for a change.

I also successfully avoided a loss on the Djoker spread and Fog ml, two bets I was super close to making. That always feels good.

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Zverev is out. But, Tsitty lives and his path looks decent. Neither Federer nor Djokovic look otherwordly. Let’s hope the Greek can make a run.

Day 6

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Despite slamming down 17 aces, Anderson looked far from dominant in round two against Munar. He was broken twice and taken to deuce numerous times in the first two sets. The good thing for Anderson was that he simply capitalized on the only chance he got in the third set. Almost every service on both sides went to love or 15, he got once chance at deuce and took it. Anderson won 51% of the total points in the match. That is not confidence inspiring for another match on a slow court with a clay guy who has beaten him before. Sousa upped his game in round two after looking horrible in round one. From 56% to 63% on first serve, from six break points faced to two, and from 70% of first points won to 79%. Total pass here, the over might be a good look.

How real is Jordan Thompson? Khachanov is easily his biggest scalp of the season and one of his best wins ever, at 24 years old. Jack Sock #17 and Andy Murray #1, as a lucky loser, both in 2017 are his other two big wins. Other than Khachanov, Adrain Mannarino is Thompson’s only other top 50 win in 2019. It’s hard to know what to make of Thompson’s win when KK was winning less than 30% of second serve points, on return or on serve. Additionally, Thompson has no history here in Miami or in Indian Wells.
Dimitrov is fresh off an extended break and got a semi-pass against Lopez who is headed to being a tournament director rather than player. The stats are heavily in Dimitrov’s favour and I think he should be able to dispatch Thompson. If Dimitrov is motivated to make in-roads this week, in his first week back, then this match should go his way. He plays a lot of tiebreaks and Thompson may be a pest so I’ll avoid the -3.5 handicap and parlay this.

Medvedev trucked Mannarino. Badly. I don’t know what to make of that, as Mannarino has had such a bad 2019. Opelka is now into his fifth match. He has played quality opposition and dropped a set to both Struff and Schwartzman and needed three tiebreaks in four sets in qualies to get here. Medvedev has better hold/break stats across each of the last three years and the advantage is actually getting larger each year. I think the price is just too large. I’ll pass on this.

Fed has looked far from dominating in Miami. Shock loss last year and barely got by Albot on Saturday night. Kraj got here through two tough matches against PHH and Stan. Kraj also rolled through five matches in Indian Wells without dropping a set before meeting up with Nadal. Federer is on Nadal’s level and Kraj is 1-9 in his career against top 10 players. He has lost to Fed twice before (both last year, both on hards). I would love to see Fed get upset but I don’t think it is happening this round. In fact, the stats are so heavily in his favour I will parlay him with Grigor - and this lets me avoid the sweat if Fed drops another set.

I have a future on Tsitsipas. I’m doubling down. Tsitty has a decent sized advantage in hold/break stats the last two years, he can play clay or hards equally well, which make him competitive with Mayer, and he already is successful in tiebreaks. Mayer plays a ton of tiebreaks and Tsitty has shown already this year he has nerves of steal in the coin flip. Tsitty is 11 for 15 in tiebreaks this year and he has only lost one of the matches he has played a tiebreak in (Monfils 36,67). I’ll add Tsitty to the pile.

Shapo and Rublev have very similar hard court stats. Shapo is slightly better across the board, Rublev is 9-5 against lefties on tour. Rublev also has a win against Cilic under his belt. I don’t see an edge here and will stay away.

I’m still not confident on Goffin’s health and form (he lost to Salvatore Caruso last week in Phoenix). Cecchinato hasn’t hit a ball yet in Miami. Not sure how anyone can bet this match.

I don’t Tiafoe matches. Love that he beat Kecmanovic. Would love to see him beat Ferrer and lose to Goffin. It would be just like Tiafoe to eliminate my last future.

Tsitty/Fed/Dimitrov ml, +104

Good luck