ATP Tennis 2019 March 26, Miami Day 7

Screen Shot 2019-03-26 at 7.57.33 AM.png

I bet on another three-leg parlay… I bet on a guy who has a pretty terrible track record in Miami. I lost. Colour me shocked.

Dimitrov had break points at 5-5 in the first set. He didn’t convert. I may or may not have immediately dm’d a few people saying Dimitrov would drop the set. He did. Then Dimitrov was serving at 5*-4 in the second set… he was broken twice!! Probably a bad call on my part, all-in-all considering Dimitrov’s history in Miami and how recently he had returned to action. Live and learn.

Screen Shot 2019-03-25 at 1.15.21 PM.png
Screen Shot 2019-03-25 at 1.21.09 PM.png

Day 7

Screen Shot 2019-03-26 at 7.59.13 AM.png

RBA has won the last two hard court matches with Djokovic, including one this year. Man, would I love to see that happen a third time. Novak has looked far from peak-Novak so far on the Sunshine Double. He went out early to Kohlschreiber in Indian Wells and he has been been taken to a tiebreak with Tomic this week, while also dropping a set to Delbonis. I would love to see RBA push Djokovic or even put him out. I think it will be competitive and the +4.5 is tempting. I think I’ll just stay away because Novak could turn it up at any time.

Edmund is rolling, having not dropped a set yet in Miami and not even being pushed past ten games in a set. He broke Milos on serve twice, which is pretty impressive. Isner, conversely has had to survive three tiebreaks and a twelve game set. Neither Sonego nor ARV is on Raonic’s level, so I would be worried that Edmund can step up here and push Isner over the edge. They played at the US Open two years ago and Edmund was able to break Isner multiple times and prevail in a tiebreak (and Edmund is certainly better now than he was in 2016). The line looks surprisingly right and if I could get Edmund at plus money here I might take it.

I’m not sure how high FAA’s current ceiling is. The hard court stats are very similar to Bashilashvili’s and when Basher gets hot he can compete with just about anyone (he’s top 20 now, he has beaten Khachanov, Rublev and RBA in 2019 and went three sets with Djokovic). I’ll pass on this.

Man, when Kyrgios cares he just runs over people. He thumped Lajovic and you could see it coming with some of Kyrgios’ public comments. In the intervening 24 hours Kyrgios has been similarly vocal. I think he is back “in the groove” as he was in Acapulco - where he beat Nadal, Zverev and Isner, all top 10 guys. He can do something similar here, with Coric and then possibly FAA and then possibly Djoker and then Fed. That’s some legends and some contemporaries (even if they are not quite top 10). Kyrgios has beaten Coric twice before, including once on clay so the surface should not bother him and Coric has looked far from stellar in 2019 and in Miami (dropped a set in both matches and the only two top 50 players he has beat in 2019 are Bashilashvili and Fucsovics). I’ll take Kyrgios on a plus money handicap.

I’m fading Jordan Thompson a third time. He can’t keep winning with these small margins. Anderson is a far better hard court player, has two matches under his belt, so the rust should be off and there is no statistical argument to be made in Thompson’s favor. Thompson has had to deal with guys like Dimitrov and Khachanov, who were maybe not in great form and who laid down four aces a piece. Anderson is averaging 15 aces a match in Miami. I’ll parlay this in case Thompson somehow steals another set.

I’ve mentioned many times Medvedev has the ability to dominate players below him in the rankings and yet, gets beaten routinely by guys above him in the rankings. This is another perfect example. Fed has played Meds twice before on hard courts and beaten him both times. I would love to see Meds pull the upset here and I won’t be crying if I lose this bet but, I will be on Fed here. This price seems cheap given the history and pedigree. I would imagine Fed’s price is depressed because him and Med have identical hold/break stats in 2019 and Fed is playing on zero days rest at 37 years of age. But, I still imagine he pulls this out.

I have a future on Tsitty. He looks solid so far having only been broken once, right at the beginning of his first set of the tournamant. He didn’t face a break point against Mayer and he hasn’t dropped a set yet. Shapo is obviously in good form too, these two have very similar hold/break stats over the lats two years and the line indicates a tough match-up. I’m super nervous and will just stay away. I may look to jump in on Shapo at an expensive number if he wins the first set - at 33/1 I have ample room to play with on the future.

I generally try to stay away from Tiafoe matches after I experienced some incredible bad luck betting ON and AGAINST him in 2018. But, I am going to jump back into the water today.
Tiafoe has been very hot and cold in 2019. He has been pushed to a 76,76 win by Kecmanovic and then he dropped a set to Ferrer late last night. Goffin has come close to dropping a set yet in Miami, seems to be playing re-invigorated tennis and he has beaten Tiafoe all three times they have played. All three were on hard courts and the last two were handily won.

Kyrgios -2.5, +100
Anderson/Federer ml, -122
Goffin -2.5, -120

Good luck