What an up and down day. Kyrgios wins the first set… then gets distracted by the fans and the ump… and gets blown out.
Goffin served for the first set at 5*-3, and amazingly won THREE more points. He was broken to 15, lost to 15, was broken again to 15, and then lost to love to drop the set 7-5. That is fucking unheard of.
Then my hopes went sky high again when RBA put out Djoker AND Fed was pushed to Wednesday, meaning he would have to play Anderson and Tsitsipas Thursday and Friday back to back on no rest.
But, then Tsitsipas was forced to start his match at 1130pm and lost a third set tiebreak at 130am.
What a terrible roller coaster day.
Futures are dead for the week.
I am officially below water for the first time this season.
I was concerned that Federer was going to have to play Medvedev on zero rest and that having not dominated Albot of Krajinovic, he might struggle with Medvedev. So, I parlayed Federer’s moneyline with Anderson. I stand by that. And I feel so much better that he has a days rest and that he can see a finish line without Djoker (although this didn’t necessarily work out against Thiem last week) that I’m doubling down. I’ll parlay Fed’s moneyline again today. Medvedev has proven he struggles with top tier guys and I see no reason why extra rest for Fed won’t hurt Meds chances even more.
RBA has better hold/break numbers on hard courts in each of the last three years in comparison to Isner. RBA is comfortable in tiebreaks, he has a career winning record and has won one here this week, so he should be able to handle that if/when it comes up. The only set has dropped this week was to Djokovic, the best player in the world, and he over came that. RBA has played Isner three times before and not had any trouble breaking him. RBA facing “big servers” in the last few years has actually fared pretty well - Cilic at the Aussie, Stan in Doha, Ivo in Barcelona last year, Delpo in Auckland last year; he beat them all. I have to go back to 2017 to find a guy in the 90% hold range that he has lost to. The slower surface here should only help RBA further. Isner was 7-10 in tiebreaks in 2019 coming into Miami. He has gone 5-0 in tiebreaks here this week (his set scores this week are 76,76, 75,76,76,76). He can’t win every tiebreak this week. I’ll parlay RBA with Fed for a big juicy number.
FAA vs Coric. Much like FAA vs Hurkacz, just sit back and enjoy. It’s on after supper, I’ll be able to settle in and watch this. FAA is rising so fast, his hard court stats are from such a small sample size that I think I am done trying to handicap him for the immediate future. Just watch and enjoy.
Anderson/Federer ml, -122 (from yesterday)
RBA/Federer ml, +148