Another rough day. I’m running out of excuses. Down almost $2,000 in daily picks. Fucking gross. Sandgren no-showed in the third set. Istomin lost a tight tiebreak and no-showed in the second set. Just brutal.
A couple different people asked about the spreadsheet - I’m not hiding anything, here it is (I am trying to get it hosted on the DeepDive site and just have it available in full in Google Sheets):
Two futures down in round one but, they were lottery tickets and amount to $20. Still disappointing. Hopefully Isner wins a few matches and Hurkacz wins his second match and I can hedge those two for something to cover these smaller futures.
The real meat is Tsitty at 33/1, Fed each/way at 5.5/1, and the potential Djoker moneyline rollover which I hope to get to +250 or so.
I don’t see any point in betting Djokovic. There is no value in -3300 even in a parlay. And at -6.5, your looking for a 62,62 o 62,63 type of win. It is plus money and I guess it is possible but, not worth the risk. I’m sure Djoker is totally comfortable with a 63,63 type win. Djoker has had a first round bye twelve times in Indian Wells and he is 4-8 at covering a -6.5 line in his second round match. So, pass.
I said I wasn’t going to bet Kyrgios matches this year, then I did in Delray and he lost to Radu Albot, then I got pissed and bet against him in Acapulco and he won the tournament. Like, fuck. Anyway, I stated on the podcast, when he gets rolling, he rolls. And he backs up his titles pretty well. Kohl was on a serious losing streak coming into Indian Wells and was gifted a first round win when Herbert literally no-showed (bizarre loss where PHH concede 13!!! break chances in only eight service games). Kyrgios isn’t top ten but, I think everyone can agree when he is “on” he can be considered top ten… Kohl is a career 0.200 winner against top ten guys. Not impressive. I’m sure Kyrgios sees Djoker lurking and maybe, just maybe he wants him. The stats are barely in Kyrgios’ favour but, it’s easy to fade Kohl here and hopefully Nick wants a piece of the Serb while he is in the mood to play tennis. I’ll take the handicap.
Oh man, was Leo lucky to survive round one. Mayer saved six of seven break points that Opelka generated and somehow broke Opelka in his only opportunity. Incredible luck, especially considering Leo served less than 60% on first serve. Monfils is playing ‘Wakadian’ tennis as one tennis writer put it:
In addition to playing great tennis Monfils is also 3-1 head-to-head with Mayer. The slow courts should help Monfils get to everything and disarm Mayer’s serve. I could see Monfils running away with this. But, the line is priced just out of my range. The spread of -3.5 is juiced to -150. If I’m buying -3.5 I’d like to do it for like -110 or -120 tops.
Two clay courters. Eww. ARV trucked Dzumhur, so I am not sure what to make of that. Cecchinato only recently showed some chops on hard courts. These guys have played a bunch but not since 2015. They both win on hards less than 40% of the time. Straight pass.
Outdoor tennis on a slower, windier surface. Hmmm. Coric has lost twice to Karlovic but, they were some time ago when Coric was just a pup. In round one here Ivo had to squeek past Matthew Ebden 76,76 while only landing 52% of his first serves. It was Ivo’s first win since the Aussie. Coric is coming off a semi-final in Dubai and a fourth round appearance at the Aussie, both outdoor hard court events (his one indoor event this year was… not memorable). I like Coric to get his win agains the Doctor on Saturday. All the hard court stats support this - Coric has better hold/break on hards the last two years, he is better for the career, already, and the kid already has a winning record in tiebreaks. Coric also is comfortable here, having gone to the semi’s last year. Now, I am plenty concerned, when betting against Ivo, with the tiebreak factor. They are coin-flips after all. So, I’ll parlay this moneyline instead of risking the -2.5.
Gunny dropped a set in qualifying to Salvatore Caruso and he squeeked past Jason Jung. Now he is here in the second round, where he doesn’t belong, by the grace of Benoit Paire. Oh, Benoit Paire. What a guy. Gunny served ONE ace, double faulted FOUR times, landed 58% of his first serves and was only able to protect his second serve to the tune of 45%. Yet, Gunneswaran beat Paire. Well, it gives us the wonderful chance to fade the Indian on Saturday. As far as I can tell Gunny has only ever won one min draw prior to this week, in Stuttgart last year. He was promptly dispatched, and did not cover +3.5 games, in the second round. That win in Stuttgart was also his only top 50 win I can ever find (Jeez, what was Shapo doing that day?). Basil on outdoor hards is just shy of being a 0.500 player, he is a positive tiebreak player and hardly ever loses to guys outside the top 50 (Daniel Brands 67,67, Sam Querrey and Laslo Djere the only ones since his title in Hamburg). I like Basil to spank Gunneswaran and I’ll take the handicap.
I don’t bet Gilles Simon. Period. He has every statistical advantage you could want. Should steam roll Jaziri. Probably loses because he is French and hates me.
Jordan Thompson hasn’t looked great in 2019. The only top 50 player he’s beaten is Mannarino, who himself was having a horrible 2019 (until yesterday, fuck sakes). Thiem hold every statistical advantage I look for in a tennis match. But, how healthy is Thiem? He really struggled on the clay swing through South America, only getting one clean win, over #85 Maximillian Marterer. This should be Thiem’s match to win but, I’m running bad enough that I’ll gladly avoid this.
Zverev at -700 is steep, as is Zverev -4.5. I think he wins but, Klizan plus games probably isn’t a bad look. I usually avoid matches with this lopsided of lines.
Struff fucking rolled in round one. He generated eleven break points in eight return games, he broke Millman FIVE times, and he landed 67% of his first serves. He also kind of owns Berankis - three wins to zero losses, on three different surfaces. And Berankis is just kind of a poor man’s Millman right? Berankis is 5”9, 170 lbs… Millman is 5”11, 175 lbs… both right handed with a two handed back hand… both running at about 105% hold/break on hard courts this year. I’ll use Struff to parlay with Coric.
I don’t know what to make of Marcos Giron. He just shouldn’t be here. He dropped a set to Thomas Fabbiano, he squeezed past Kecmanovic in a third set tiebreak, then won two more tiebreaks against Jeremy Chardy. That kind of luck is bound to run out. And it’s not like he is doing it in Karlovic style with tons of aces and holding serve like John Isner. I can’t make an argument for how Giron is here. DeMinaur is winning the matches he is supposed to win this year - he is 11-3, with a title in Sydney and his three losses were to Tsonga, Nadal and Zverev. There is nothing wrong with those. So, at -450 I have to look at the handicap. Can ADM cover -3.5? And is it worth -150? I didn’t think so with Monfils. But Leo Mayer is a bigger challenge than Marcos Giron. DeMinaur is 6-2 at covering the -3.5 spread, failing only versus Nic Jarry and Reilly Opelka, two big, big serves; so probably understandable. I just find it hard to justify -150, so I’ll pass on what should be a winner.
Raonic and Querrey have played five times. The series is pretty even at 3-2. They split sets three times and one of the two straight set matches contained a tiebreak. Their hold/break stats are amazingly similar (which probably explains the dearth of Raonic titles, in retrospect) and I would vouch for the over here if it wasn’t set at 24.5. Pass.
I have an outright on Tsitsipas and FAA surprised everybody, continually on the Golden Swing, and surprised me, again, on Thursday. This is a straight avoid while I cross my fingers and hope my outright survives.
RBA holds massive advantages over Nishioka. In every category. He beat Nishioka at the Aussie Open in 2017 and it wasn’t close. Just like ADM and Monfils though, he is priced just outside my range, both on the moneyline and on the handicap. What do you do when you have three guys you really want to bet but they are too expensive? You avoid them because three-way parlays don’t work, right? Nah.
Kyrgios -2.5, -125
Basilashvili -3.5, -125
Coric/Struff ml, +104
Monfils/ADM/RBA ml, -120