ATP Tennis 2019 May 1

Screen Shot 2019-04-30 at 10.01.55 PM.png

Like I said the other day. Tennis, and gambling as a whole, can be a fickle thing. Having a horrible two months… Sunday morning rolls around, and I’m 7-2 since. Could easily, easily be 9-0. Bolelli was up a set and break on Sunday and Sonego served for the match on Monday. Slim margins. Not only that but, yesterday’s sweep could easily have been, like, 8-0 instead of 4-0. I mentioned I liked Molleker, Fokina, wanted to fade Jarry, I liked Millman, Kohl and wanted to fade Struff. Anyone of those would have added to the bottom line because they all fucking won.

One day I’ll get around to having the nutsack to bet all my “leans”.

Screen Shot 2019-04-30 at 9.56.22 PM.png

Still lots of work to do to get back above water. Estoril is dead to me with Lajovic going out early and really I haven’t liked a lot of the matchups there (don’t again today either). Munich looks solid though, with Zverev gearing up to play Wednesday and Pella continuing to look sharp.

Munich

Screen Shot 2019-04-30 at 9.56.56 PM.png

I have an outright on Zverev. This is “my fucking court” and all. He is a different class of player from Londero and assuming he didn’t party too hard Monday and Tuesday night, this should be a nice warm-up. I’ll be honest, the price actually seems LOW. It’s a quibble but, I expected -700, -800, somewhere in there. Even -1000 would not have surprised me. So, I’m going to avoid this and just hope Zverev gets through any potential danger.

I’m high on Garin. His only four losses since the Aussie have been to true clay courters - Cecchinato, FAA, Pella and RCB. Of course, Schwartzman is obviously pretty good on clay. So, I think I’m going to avoid this match. DSS hasn’t impressed other than the finals in Buenes Aires. And he hasn’t won back-to-back matches since. Still, his hold/break numbers on clay (in previous years) have been near elite level and the last time he played Garin, on clay, he pulled away sharply in the final set. I lean hard to Garin at plus money based on the recent form but, Schwartzman is maybe a step above everyone that Garin has beaten this year (with the possible exception of a rapidly improving FAA). Pass.

Cecchinato has three wins outside of his title in Buenes Aires. Three wins in eight tournaments. That is… not good. One of them was against the #150 ranked Sergey Stakhovsky and one was a gift from Stan Wawrinka, where Cecch was bageled in the first set before Stan choked when serving for the match. Form is less than good, I would say. Klizan doesn’t have much form either but, he hasn’t had much chance. His two losses on the Euro clay swing have been to Thiem and a hot Garin. Nothing wrong with those. Klizan has a match under his belt now here in Munich and Cecc is coming in cold. Klizan is routinely ranked below his capabilities due to numerous, continuous injuries, and, well, because he inexplicably drops sets all the time. But, I think he can keep this close, probably steal a set, maybe through a tiebreak (which he is great in) and the because the last two years combined hold/break numbers tell me, that despite Cecc’s great run at the French Open, Klizan is still just as good on clay as the Italian. I’ll take the plus games.

I’m not overly sure Monteiro should be here. It might sound odd saying that considering he double breadsticked Struff yesterday but, I did mention that I thought Struff would be in trouble. Monteiro got a nice draw. And that is after he struggled through qualifying, going three sets with ARV and Rublev. Monteiro is always good for an upset (I’ve written before about how he has upset Tsonga and Cuevas in big spots). But, he got his upset. Time to go home. Fucsovics is better in combined hold/break numbers across each of the past three years, sometimes markedly so. He’s had a better career on clay, winning almost 60% of his matches on the surface and he’s comfortable here in Munich, having made the quarters here last year. I’ll take Fucs.

Estoril

Screen Shot 2019-04-30 at 9.57.24 PM.png

Tsitsipas should roll. I’ll repeat, ‘should’. There were six upsets in round one and Estoril is notorious for having players with a bye drop out early - maybe here for the paycheque and the subsequent beach time. Last year players with byes went 2-2 in their opening match; in 2017 home town boy Joao Sousa lost in his opening match in the second round; and in 2015 all four players with byes got routined in straight sets. So, I’ll guess we’ll see how motivated Tsitty is. He dropped a bunch of points by not making it back to the final in Barcelona and he has semi-final points to defend here. So, I’ll just sit and watch.

Domingues went to the final in Tunis ten days ago. Then he worked his way through qualies here and beat DeMinaur in round one. Impressive, I guess. Domingues is 25, it’s not like he is coming out of no-where, he is a known commodity. He only beat one player ranked inside the top 200 in Tunis and it was 35 year old GGL. To get through qualies he beat Elias Ymer and Baldi, neither impressive. And DeMinaur has one career ATP win on clay. Millman is far from proficient on clay but, he made the final in Budapest last year and so, after getting ousted early there, he has ground to make up this week. His hold/break numbers on clay have improved dramatically over the past three years and I think he can take out Domingues fairly easily.

I mentioned on the podcast, that Chardy is really a no-go for me on clay. Fokina is impressing at a young age (I regret not betting him yesterday) and I think he can continue the streak on Wednesday. What gives me pause is I’m not sure, through three matches here this week, he has played anyone that can serve like Chardy. In fact, maybe other than a peaking-Istomin on his best day, I don’t think Fokina has played anyone in 2019 that can serve like Chardy. So, if the Frenchman is on his game, he may take this and he is priced appropriately. Pass.

I’m guessing Monfils gets past Opelka if he is healthy and of sound mind (I mean that in the most sincere way). The price seems crazy low. There is no statistical argument, on clay, as to why this shouldn’t be like Monfils -350 or -400. I would suggest it is simply due to health concerns. I would guess that what we see is Opelka hold serve about five times before Monfils gets back into the groove and gets a handle on the big man’s serve. Monfils has had LOTS of success against Opelka’s fellow American tree, John Isner (and you can go back through my daily articles to see I bet Monfils both times he played Isner last year). Assuming Opelka gets to 5-5 or even 4-4, Monfils should be down below -150. I will be Monfils live if he looks healthy.

Klizan +2.5, -110
Fucsovics/Millman ml, +133
Monfils LIVE possibly below -150

Good luck