Oh baby. A couple of massive matches on Saturday. Hopefully, matches that are harbingers of the turing of the tide against the Big Three/Four/Five.
Thiem pushed Djoker right to the brink and Tsitty actually pushed Rafa right over the edge. Lovely to see. And man, it makes the French Open desirable to watch for maybe the first time in about a decade.
A live bet that I got greedy with pushed me into a losing day. Hurkacz won the second set and I tweeted that Kecmanovic was available at a huge plus number. I didn’t take my own advice (again) and Hurkacz fell apart in the third. Oh well, the entry point was right; so that’s still a positive sign for where my head is at when identifying bets.
A BallBoyz pod and a BangtheBook article will be up early, early Sunday morning for Rome. But, be aware, Rome starts on Sunday, with five first round matches (I can’t even properly articulate how much I hate this).
Ok. I am officially done fading Tsitsipas. The kid can play. On any surface. Against anyone. I have no idea where he is getting the energy. Finals last week in Estoril. Changing altitude by about 2,000 feet. He played doubles at 1am local time on Friday night, after beating Zverev and before facing Nadal on Saturday night. This shouldn’t be possible. And to top it all off, he really had to turn the tide against Nadal too. After dropping the second set 2-6 almost everyone would have expected him to go away in the third. And instead, he put the hammer down. on Nadal. It was impressive, awesome, and again, hopefully a sign of things to come for the #nextgen (man, I hope so).
Tsitsipas has faced Djokovic before and beat him. Their hold/break stats on clay are actually quite similar over the last two years and early money has come flying in on Tsitsipas (I saw Novak as high as -334 and he is now -240 at some places). Novak was pushed to the limit by Thiem and I don’t see it being any different with Tsitsipas. The +3.5 on Tsitsipas is probably a good bet but, I have terrible luck backing dogs on the plus games.
Both semi-finals soared over the posted total, and given the similarity of the clay court stats and the competitiveness of the semi’s you might expect tons of people to be on the over. Consider this though, Tsitsipas has made six finals on tour - all six have ended in straight sets. Since Djokovic’s return to prominence at Wimbledon 2018 he has made seven finals; all seven of those have also ended in straight sets. That is trend analysis at its best, I know. But, it’s not something I want to get involved with trying to fade.
Rome round one to come later.