The Rome Masters Event gets underway on Sunday with five first round matches. I hate to admit they are happening but, I still have to cap them…
I already posted a breakdown of the Madrid Final. I have nothing there but, go read it, as I did have a few things to say about possible ways to bet it.
I try not to bet Gilles Simon matches. Him and Kohl have split nine matches anyway, so, this is an easy avoid.
Berrettini is on a roll. Finals in Budapest, finals in Munich. Hot as it gets. You can also see a great progression in his clay court hold/break stats. Pouille surprised Coric in round one in Madrid but then reverted right back to his inconsistent self with a blowout loss to Hurkacz. It’ s hard to get way from Berrettini here. I expect him to get past Pouille.
Steve Johnson is losing matches like it’s going out of style. I have no desire to get involved with that. Sinner is dominating at the lower levels but, his one foray into main draw ATP matches saw him get destroyed by Laslo Djere 3 and 1. I can’t get behind him until he does some more damage against name guys.
RBA is better than Seppi on clay every year. Seppi hasn’t won a match in a while and he is on his fourth straight week of travel. This should be an easy RBA win.
I would be all over Fucs here normally. He has massive clay court hold/break advantages over Basil and he has a great four and one record against the Georgian. The issue I have is this is Fucs’ fifth straight week playing tennis. That concerns me and I’ll lay off.
RBA/Berrettini ml, -141
Bonus - Rome qualies
ARV/Fritz ml, -130
Ruud ml if it comes out less than -200 (no line yet)