ATP Tennis 2019 May 18

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Live betting! It’s a thing. It’s takes more discipline than I probably have to do it well. And it takes more time than I probably have to do it properly. But, I’m now 10-4 on live plays posted to Twitter and there’s a bunch more that I’ve made, like the Nadal one’s yesterday, that have gone well. Almost need a two screen set-up though to help other people benefit - so you can type it in Twitter on one device almost as you are hitting submit on another. It’s something I’ll have to put some thought into.

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Djoker lives. Barely. Again. Rafa is steamrolling the field though, so Sunday’s decision looms large should they both get there.

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This line seems way out of whack, given the performances on Friday, their match at the French two years ago, the clay stats presented and especially in comparison to the Nadal/Tsitsipas line. Schwartzman has quietly been very assassin-like this week, not dropping a set. Aside from a tiebreak against ARV he has kept every set under ten games and he has broken serve 16 times in 37 return games (43%). If you take out the tiebreak set against ARV, he’s running 16/31; a Rafa-like 50%. Schwartzman has to be running on fumes, having played five weeks in a row but, he hasn’t shown any ill effects yet and it was actually Djoker who struggled more on Friday (although quality of competition could for sure be an issue in that comparison). Something feels off in this line given how close their combined hold/break numbers were last year and in 2017 and with Djoker coming off a title in Madrid, two matches on Thursday and an epic on Friday, I’ll just sit this one out and hope my outright pick makes the final.

I’ve bet against Tsitsipas a lot recently and it hasn’t gone well. I’m, maybe unwisely, going back to that well. Tsitty is on week five in a row of playing tennis, like Schwartzman, and he is making deep runs each time. That doesn’t not bode well for him if he tires out today, as he did on Sunday versus Djokovic. Nadal obviously has the vastly superior stats and will have revenge on his mind, given the loss last week to the Greek. Add Tsitty’s potential fatigue to the fact that Rafa has put up a fucking bagel in the second set of every match here in Rome and I think we could see a tight first set and a train on the tracks in the second set - much as we did yesterday with Verdasco. That means grab Rafa -4.5 now and also look to grab him live if he is down a break in the first set or tied up late at 4-4 or 5-5. I’ll be all over that.

Rafa -4.5, -120

Good luck