Wow. I got killed yesterday. Couldn’t win a tiebreak; couldn’t win a third set.
Dimitrov may have been a great example of the ‘tanking’ that the tennis community grinds its teeth about. How do you win the first set 61, get to 44 in the second set and then win two more games? Maybe it is because you feel like you’ve made some progress and you are looking ahead to next weeks event. It wouldn’t be the first time.
Or, Dimitrov could just suck.
Travel level baseball is a bit of a time suck. Just a few words on each match.
Delbonis surprised yesterday. His stats on clay are less than Fucs’ but, not decidedly so. Also, Fuc’s is on his sixth straight week of playing tennis, probably fancies winning a round or two at RG, and really other than two wins in Munich hasn’t been able to put much together since February. Pass.
Neither ARV nor Sousa looked impressive yesterday, with both struggling through three sets. They are both clay focused players who have a career winning percentage around 50% on the surface and hold/break stats that hover around 100%. Both guys are also running a similar schedule. I don’t see an edge here. Pass.
Jarry is a much better clay player over the last two years than Kudla. The elevation should continue to help his service game, as he hit seven aces and managed to protect 68% of his second serves. Other than Barcelona Jarry has not had much success in 2019 and he comes into Geneva on a run of bad luck, as his last two losses were in third set tiebreaks. I expect him to get past Kudla today.
I have an outright on Garin. He is on a hot streak. Conditions, at elevation, should suit him as he had success in Munich. Taro Daniel is now playing in his seventh straight tournament and has only had any kind of run in Marrakech. I’ll take Garin.
Londero’s only success at the ATP level came this year in Cordoba. Cordoba is at just over 1,000 feet of elevation just like Geneva. Albot squeezed past Sonego in two tiebreaks yesterday. I would expect another tiebreak or two and I think Londero is value.
Wawrinka should get off his new losing streak. I can’t imagine his is not motivated. Stanimal wins.
Basil feels like he is in the same boat as Fucs. I’ll pass on this, Lamasine is not a tour level clay player but, as a lucky loser in the draw with a win already under his belt, he is a true wildcard.
Tsonga was someone I almost took an outright on. He has had success here in the past and he has distinct advantages over Diez on this surface. All over Tsonga here.
Cuevas has lost three times to Paire, twice on clay. Paire fought through three sets to get here meaning there is a good chance he actually cares. Pass.
I am not sure what to make of Ugo’s demolition of Cam Norrie. Norrie and Shapo have very similar clay court numbers and in fact Norrie’s are a little better. Shapo could also be looking ahead a little. Ugo should be highly motivated in a “home” tournament and this is a decent sized plus money price.
Gasquet at plus money. Again.
I’ll pass on RBA. His run since the hard court season has been less than impressive.
Jarry/Tsonga/Wawrinka ml, +106
Garin 2-0, -120
Londero ml, +100
Humbert ml, +162
Gasquet ml, +125