I couldn’t really have had a worse day. Reverse swept. And I went 1-1 on live plays. And I had some HORRENDOUS beats. Complaint time.
I’ll keep it to a quick run down - I has four pe-match bets and two futures in play on Wednesday. All four bets lost in the third set and one future lost in the third set and one future didn’t even play, rather choosing to withdraw from the tournament. That is amazing variance. Lost every third set.
My live bet? Basilashvili was up 75,53, serving for the match and the under. Broken. Still won the match but, cost me the total.
This week has been atrocious. I am 5-12 on individual bets and 0-3 on futures; down $796. I would say only THREE of those bets have been no doubt, bad capping on my part. Norris lost in straights, Tipsarevic lost in straights and Andujar was a no-show. The other nine losses? All in third sets or in Sonego’s case, he lost 76,76 and was up 5-1 in the first tiebreak. That’s unreal. Not one guy out of eight could eek out a third set? Sonego’s tiebreaks are also a great illustration - I am 3-7 in tiebreaks this week. Oh, and my three outrighs that are already done? Two lost in third sets and one didn’t even give himself the chance to lose; he pulled out of the tournament. Fuck sakes. Wild four days.
Low point of the year. Almost a $1,000 in the hole.
FAA still lives. My last hope. I like his draw though - it’s playing out just the way I thought.
That’s true of the Geneva draw too, even though Dimitrov is out. And I hope the articles and the podcast are helping people learn to breakdown draws - even though Dimitrov went out, the assessment was correct. The second quarter was the place to attack and Fuc’s was ripe to lose his first match.
Zverev’s motivations were questionable coming into the week. He looked excellent in round one though and he is not only a HUGE favorite in round two but, the draw has opened wide for him. All three other seeded players went out in their opening matches and the highest ranking player left in the draw is Radu Albot, at #44, and he is hardly known as a clay specific player. To that end instead of finding a way to put Zverev in a parlay today, after discussing the idea with my podcast co-host Andy, we both decided to grab Zverev live to win the tournament at +100. +100. That number seems wildly high. Zverev is -600 today. There is a good chance he’ll be the same or bigger in the semis against either Delbonis or ARV. Then he potentially faces Nic Jarry in the final? What is he there, -400? That would put a rolling parlay at -140. Zverev’s price seems good. So, I added a future on him.
Delbonis and ARV have played NINE times. That’s not surprising considering they are both clay focused players. The issue I see is they gave pretty evenly split those nine matches, their hold/break numbers are so similar on clay across the last three years (within 6% in each year) and while I may favour ARV based on pedigree, ARV has now played five weeks in a row and Delbonis is well rested having been off for a month. At a bit of altitude here and having faced a much weaker path than Delbo, I’m afraid ARV may wear out. Pass.
I liked Jarry pre-tournament but, pointed out he struggled with form coming in. He hasn’t dropped a set yet but, then again, he hasn’t really played anyone who would consider clay their favorite surface yet either. Ebden and Kudla are both primarily grass players so, Jarry has yet to really be tested. Taro Daniel isn’t elite but, at least you can say clay is his best surface and his lone career title is on clay. He may have the best win in the draw so far, beating Garin in three sets yesterday. These two actually have pretty similar clay court stats and they have played twice before, going three sets both times. Given their familiarity with each other and their similar clay court hold/break numbers I am opting for the over here.
Dzumhur and Albot. Gross. Two guys I have faded on clay and who have caused upsets this week. Their combined hold/break numbers are both consistently in the low 90’s on clay, which is below tour average. I have no desire to bet this match.
Tsonga is coming around. He took awhile to get up to speed on Wednesday but, when he got there, he ran away with the match. If you throw out last season when Tsonga didn’t play, Basil is routinely a guy who’s hold/break numbers come in somewhere in the mid-90’s and Tsonga’s are routinely between 105-110%. They’ve played before, recently, on clay and Tsonga won. I think Tsonga wins again here, a place where he has had plenty of success. Being that he has been a slow starter I’ll recommend two other possibilities besides the straight moneyline bet I’ll be placing. One would be to look live, if Tsonga gets down early or drops a tight first set he should pop to about +150 or +175 and I’d grab that. Two, a solid prop bet might be Tsonga to win 2-1 at +300.
FAA to the bank. He made it relatively close versus Millman but, I think now that he sees the path, he’ll be a little quicker with Johnson. FAA’s sample size for stats is super small and basically limited to 2019 but, those show him on another level than SJ.
A guy who you can never tell is going to show up against a guy playing on his least favorite surface. Oh boy. Paire’s 2019 hold/break stats look incredible and it’s literally just the result of one great week. He won Marrakech in dominating fashion, giving a boost to his stats, particularly his break percentage, which is about 10% higher right now than his career average on the red dirt. In every clay event besides Marrakech and Barcelona Paire has gone out in the first round. The issue with Shapo as the alternative is that this is his least favored surface. He might be stepping it up, Medvedev-style, out of nowhere but, I’ll reserve judgement. Pass.
RBA has not looked special since the hard court season, and he went three sets again yesterday against someone he shouldn’t have. Fritz is an ascendent player on clay and may surprise. I’m out on this one.
Jarry/Daniel o22.5, -110
Tsonga/FAA ml, +124
Zverev outright, +100