ATP Tennis 2019 May 24

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More fucking losing. Maybe the Jarry/Daniel over was a bad call but, the second set should show that the scoreline wasn’t that indicative of the result. Also, in that blowout first set, Jarry went 2/2 on break points, Daniel went 0/2. It wasn’t that wide of a gap.
The same small margin haunted me with Tsonga. Basil won 65 points in the match, Tsonga won 60. It was tight. The difference was merely break point performance - Basil went 3/4. Fuck.

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FAA lives and after last night’s last minute future addition of Zverev at even money, I have a semi-finalist in each tournament. Zverev isn’t much money (1/1) but the value just seemed incredible considering his path, so it is what it is. I could use $100.

The draw for Roland Garros is out, so the focus needs to shift to capping that. I’ll be brief with these four semi’s.

Geneva

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I feel like the Zverev line is shortened. Probably because he has had such a bad clay season, such a bad 2019 in general and because he might be accused/suspected of looking ahead to Roland Garros. Maybe the line is a little depressed because Delbonis has put away three relatively decent players this week and could be considered to be a “giant-killing” spree - he has been a dog in all three matches in Geneva. I’ll throw all that conjecture out the window. Zverev has massive advantages in the combined hold/break categories and just based on those alone the line looks low. In combination with Zverev’s career record on clay vs Delbonis’ career record, AND Zverev’s proficiency in tiebreaks, this line should be about double this. I’ll double down on Zverev here. If Zverev was going to quit and head to Roland Garros, he would have given up after dropping the second set to Dellien yesterday.

I am not sure I saw Jarry rolling this easily to the semis. I mentioned on the podcast that he was an outright option but that was unhappy with how up and down his season had been. Turns out, the altitude in Geneva has been a boon to the 6’6er. Jarry has won 78%, 84% and 87% of his first serve points in his three matches thus far in the Swiss Alps - rising with each match. Jarry has also only been broken one time in the three matches this week. On the other side of the equation Jarry has broken serve 9 times in 28 games. That’s a fairly incredible 32%. Meanwhile, Albot has been broken four times this week and saved a miraculous eight break points against Londero, as well as survived two tiebreaks against Songo. This will be my third time fading Albot this week but, three times is the charm.

Lyon

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I’m already in on FAA and I see no reason to double down. Basil can get hot (see: Hamburg 2018) and I’ll be watching this one closely looking for live options in case FAA gets in trouble. Other than against Nadal, Basil has won the first set in each of his last seven matches. So, I’ll watch this first set and if Basil is looking solid, I may be tempted to get in on him if the score gets to 5-5 or 6-6.

So, Paire cares? And Fritz is on the up-swing (pointed it out yesterday and somehow didn’t bet it). If anything, Fritz and Paire are both on the fade as a favorite, play as a dog timeline. I’ll avoid this match, although I lean pretty heavily to Paire.

Zverev/Jarry ml, +152