The trolls were out in full force on Tuesday afternoon and, well, pointing at the scoreboard is still the best form of trashtalking.
Things are rolling hot, on clay no less. 10-3 at the French Open in three days for about $600. Here’s hoping it continues.
All futures survived. I have another day to make a decision on Zverev. I made a “pinky” promise that I would hit him so, I will probably will add it, especially now that Felix withdrew. But, my heart probably won’t be in it. I’ll be looking to make money off deep Djere and KK runs and then cash a Nadal winner.
Tsitsipas covered the -8.5 line on Sunday by the skin of his teeth. He’s had two days to rest up and get ready for the deep run that is expected this fortnight and he probably gets by Dellien here with relative ease. Dellien has very little ATP, let alone Grand Slam, experience outside of South America. Dellien acquitted himself well in round one but really, I mean, his opponent was Gunneswaran. This will be a huge step up for the Bolivian. The question here is, regardless of the moneyline, can Tsitty cover the -7.5 line presented. The numbers would say he has a very good chance - his combiend hold/break stats and career record on clay at the ATP level make Tsitty a much, much better player than Dellien. But, consider this, Tsitty has only covered a hypothetical -7.5 line twice in all his grand slam matches (18 as of today); his match on Sunday against Marterer and a third round clash of upstarts at the US Open in 2016 against Thomas Fabbiano. The rest of the time Tsitty is playing fine margin tennis, winning close matches and trading sets with opponents. The stats say take the Greek, the history of performance at Slams says take Dellien. Pass.
Krajinovic might be one of the hottest clay players on tour right now and I am loathe to get in his way. He is 16-2 in his last four tournaments, including the French, and he went to the finals in all three lead-up tournaments he played. He survived Tiafoe in the first round and that is no easy task on any surface. His clay dominance dates back to 2017 when he entered 15 clay Challenger tournaments and won a full third of them. RCB is essentially the high end Challenger guy that Krajinovic picks apart. While Kraj had to deal with Tiafoe, RCB go to cruise past local wildcard Alexandre Muller. Plus, if nothing else, this match is going to be played on slow clay at sea level - RCB’s best success has come at altitude. Kraj is a justified favorite here and I’ll back him.
Wawrinka showed some cause for concern when he gifted a match to Dzumhur in Geneva. He showed more cause for concern this week when he dropped a set to Kovalik, although it was a tiebreak. Neither Stan nor Garin were broken in their opening matches and both played tiebreaks. That speaks volumes about Garin’s potential to keep up here. Stan plays a ton of tiebreaks, over 400 in his career, putting him near the top of the active list. The fact that Garin beat Opelka in TWO tiebreaks on Monday speaks volumes. Stan’s clay stats are merely above average but, he routinely outplays those. You can kind of throw stats out the window in Wawrinka matches. I’m not sure I can pick a winner here; if anything there is probably still value on Garin even at these low prices. Heed this though, the only two times Stan lost prior to the third round here in the last decade was to GGL, twice (how odd is that?). Wawrinka is best on clay and a perennial contender to go deep. If you have to bet this match, I would suggest the over 38.5 games or the over 3.5 sets. Even the tiebreak = yes prop at -200 is playable. I will also point this out - Stan is a notorious slow starter. He has played 51 matches at Roland Garros and dropped the first set 20 times. He came back to win 9 of those 20 matches. That’s remarkable. Almost a 50% recovery rate. If Stan drops the first set, especially if he looks ok and drops it in a tiebreak, hammer him at plus money. Pass for me.
I’ve been saying for two years now that Cilic is pretty under-rated on clay. I rode him a bunch last year at the French and I’ll look to do the same here if his prices continue to be depressed. This line is way too low. Cilic is certainly having a less than stellar 2019 but he showed on Monday how dominant he can still be with an easy straight sets win. His clay court hold/break numbers have been elite the past two years and I’m sure by the end of the French his 2019 will have rounded into a combined number above 105%. He’s beaten his opponent today, Grigor Dimitrov, four times in their five meetings (although none were on clay) and Dimitrov is certainly not in any kind of shape to be taking out guys of Cilic’s ilk. Dimitrov almost gave away his match on Monday against a semi-retired 34 year old. Last week he went out in the first round in Geneva in unceremonious fashion and the prior to that he had been beaten by Struff, Fritz, Jarry and routined by Nadal in consecutive weeks. Cilic’s simply better on clay and I back the Croat.
I usually don’t get involved in matches lined like this but, man, Mahut is just not an ATP level player. I bet against him on Sunday and I guess I’ve been sucked into doing so again. I have no idea how Mahut turned that match around against Cecchinato. But, I doubt he can do it again, home crowd or not. Just look at the difference in the stats provided. Kohl is almost playing a different sport. I’ll expect Kohl to roll here and I’ll back him to cover the spread with a double break at some point. Kohl hasn’t had much luck at Roland Garros lately, losing in the first round the last three years but, they have been horrible draws. His last four wins here have all easily covered a -6.5 line.
I have no desire to get involved in this match between two Argentines. Look at the similarities. They have similar histories at Roland Garros, played a similar schedule coming in, have the EXACT same career winning percentage on clay, and their combined hold/break numbers across the past three years are all within 5%. There is no edge here. They’ve only played one time… on clay… it went three sets. If anything that helps affirm my belief that we’re in for a long one here. Take the over or stay away.
I expect big things from Berrettini in the near future but, I have no desire to get involved here, today. Much like the Mayer/DSS match, look at how similar, statistically, these two guys are on clay. Berrettini is just a few months too old to be considered #nextgen but if he were he would be right there with Rudd in the top five of the race to Milan. Pass.
I’m sure Federer gets through this match but, it is unbettable at these prices. I think I could just re-write my synopsis of Fed’s first round match here and it would work fine. Fed is savvy enough that I doubt he will try and over-exert here. Get one break and cruise through the set, just holding serve as needed. I could easily see a scoreline of 64,64,64. So, it’s take Otte at +8.5 or stay away. The in-play +2.5 or +3.5 on Otte in set three in probably in play today just like it was with Sonego. If Fed wins the first two sets books will expect a 3-0 scoreline and Otte +2.5 in set three will surely be cheap. Pass.
If you eliminate last year when Tsonga didn’t play, these two have very similar clay court stats. They are both successful tiebreak players and they have played eight times so they are plenty familiar with each other. Six of those eight matches have gone the distance, so like Mayer/DSS or Stan/Garin, I would say, if you have to bet it, take the over. Pass for me.
Popyrin is not a clay player. He has done ok at the Challenger level in the past but, his win in round one here this week was his first main draw win of the season on clay. And it was over a local, teenaged wildcard (although Ugo is decent). This is also Popyrin’s first Slam experience outside the Aussie. Djere considers clay his best surface, he would be one of the “clay specialists” still on tour, he has a title on the surface already this year and his clay court stats blow Popyrin out of the water. I’m on Djere to go deep this year and I am excited to see what he can do against Tsonga on Friday after the Frenchman upsets Kei. I’ll double dip on Djere today.
Like with Djere/Popyrin we get an Aussie who is maybe not the best on clay up against a Euro who was raised and trained on the surface. DeMinaur was gifted a first round match against a fellow clay avoider and this should be a big step up. PCB has been out with injury for quite some time but, showed in round one he may finally be back to full form with a thumping of Joao Sousa. PCB’s clay court stats prior to 2019 are just fine and this price seems a little depressed just based on ADM’s ranking. I’ll back PCB.
Two Frenchmen on home soil in the prime time spot, last on in the big stadium. No, thanks.
I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it. I’m going to keep backing Gasquet till the books start lining his matches right. Londero got a massive boost in his rankings from a shock title in South America during the Golden Swing, otherwise he probably has to go through qualies here and doesn’t even make the main draw. Londero has little history of playing on tour outside of South America and had two main draw wins this year, off the continent, coming into Roland Garros - he beat the 36 year old ‘Warlocq’ and Mishca Zverev, who is almost winless for the season (1-9). Gasquet is great on clay, his stats far out-strip Londero’s and even this year they are close despite Londero’s title and Gasquet’s return from injury. I’ll back the Gasman.
This line seems pretty low and I don’t understand it. How can Goffin be lined at -800 and Kohl be lined at -900 yet, Pella is at -450. Feels like a steal given the disparity in the combined hold/break numbers. Pella doesn’t have a ton of history at Roland Garros yet, but, I expect that to change in the next couple of years. I’ll back Pella here.
Just like on Monday, I am sure Goffin rolls here. The stats are overwhelmingly in his favour and he is lined appropriately as a huge favorite. But, I am done betting on him for a while. Pass.
I had some small dollars on Nadal -10.5 in the opening round and the books have laughingly INCREASED the line in the following round. Nadal is an even bigger favorite and the spread is lined at -11.5. He has to win every set 62 or better. And I’m STILL tempted. It’s hard to recommend this as a bet but, I’ll admit, I’ll probably have lunch money on it again. If you have access to alt lines, Nadal -9.5 is probably a good piece for building a parlay.
Krajinovic/Cilic ml, +114
Kohl -6.5, -138
Pella/Djere/PCB ml, +115
Gasquet ml, -110