ATP Tennis 2019 May 3

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Can’t believe I tried to bet a Tiafoe match. Apparently, I am a slow learner. Never bet Tiafoe matches. Ever. Tiafoe was down 3-6, 2-3*…. well on his way to losing in straights and cashing my under. He then decided to win SEVEN games in a row. Unreal.

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Zverev looked great. Pella looked like a walking struggle. Time to hedge that fella, I think.

I’m knee deep in Kentucky Derby learning. So, this is short and sweet.

Munich

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I’m fairly confident on Zverev. His clay stats in previous years are elite. It’s his best surface. And even in a “down” 2019, his hold/break numbers are better than a guy who has made two finals and won a title already on clay. Zverev may be challenged by Garin but, the German should get through.

I don’t see an edge between Cecc and Fucs. Their hold/break numbers are almost identical in 2019 and 2018. Fucs has won both their previous matches but Cecc is improving quickly. I just don’t think Cecc should be -188. Pass.

I have a future on Pella. I was hoping RBA would get upset or look less than impressive. Neither happened. In fact, RBA got better as the match wore on. From 4-2 down in the first set RBA won six straight games and ended up winning the match 64,62, breaking Molleker four times in six service games. Pella has been amazing this year (hence, my outright on him) but, I have no faith. I actually think the semi-final may be easier for him. With plenty of value here I’ll throw 1.63 ‘units’ on RBA to see if I can make a small profit.

I’m such a pansy, I’ve already chickened out on Berrettini. Kohl has been to the final in Munich an incredible SIX times. I went back through his performance here and I literally can’t find a common thread. When he wants to play, he upsets the best in the game en route to the finals. In 2016 he beat Delpo, Fog, and Thiem to win the title. Yet, in 2017 he lost to Horacio Zeballos. Figure that out. I’m not buying the Berrettini “tired” angle either. The kid’s 23, it wasn’t his first title, so the potential “partying” he could have been susceptible to probably didn’t happen. The kid’s focused. It’s just, well, the stats are shockingly similar the last two years and fading Kohl in Miunich seems kind of… not smart. I lean hard to Matteo here but, will stay off.

Estoril

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Tsitispas wins. Probably wins the tournament. Not getting involved in a match with this line.

Goffin probably wins. Then I can fade him like crazy on Saturday against Tsitty. Line is too big to get involved.

Monfils! Man, did I read him right on Tuesday. Now that he is comfortable and rolling, I expect him to keep it going. I’ll take this seemingly cheap moneyline. This appears to be a bit of an over-reaction by the books/public based on Fokina’s recent performance. Fokina has some great recent wins but, not over anyone even in near Monfils’ caliber.

If you don’t acknowledge the tree falling in the forest, does it really happen? Feels like there might only be three matches in Estoril on Friday….

Zverev/Monfils ml, -108
RBA ml, $163 to win $100 (hedge on Pella future)

Good luck