Fitting that Kyrgios ends the winning streak. I get sucked in by this dude all the time. And it never fails to disappoint.
Kyrgios kills me on two fronts. Down to Meds and ADM, both on the top half. Also, it would appear anyone with a Nadal ticket is laughing. He looked value at 4/1 post-draw and like the Aussie he has faced zero resistance. Of course, the Aussie final was the reason I wasn’t interested in Rafa. Same goes for anytime he has played Fed off of clay in the past half decade. But, I don’t see a way Nadal isn’t in the final next Sunday. I would love for the stopper to be Zverev (he’s 0-5 against Rafa but, has taken a bunch of sets off of him) but, Zverev still looks lost at times and will probably struggle mightily with DSS on Monday.
Djokovic has owned Stan throughout their career if you go strictly off their total head-to-head. It’s 20-5, and one of those Stan wins was a Djoker first set retirement. One thing to consider though is that the of the last seven match-ups, Stan has won three… and all three were in the very late stages of Slams. The counter-point t to that would obviously be, all those wins were before Stan’s injury. They haven’t played since Stan missed the second half of 2016 and Stan doesn’t seem like the same player. He’s still good, like top 20 good, but, he’s not the same. Djoker, meanwhile, is experiencing something of a second peak, after his 18 month swoon. If anyone can push Djoker, it’s Stan but, he is also plenty capable of throwing sets away. In those last seven matches, the seven where Stan has won his famous three… well in the four losses, Stan was bagelled or breadsticked in the final set each time. I don’t know how to cap this other than, I expect Stan to keep it tight early and to fade late. So, I think the +5.5 or the +6 is out. I would like nothing more than for Stan to win this but, it seems unlikely. Djoker has routinely been getting -2.5 set spreads (you’ll notice one of my posted plays was Djoker -1.5, -200… that was him down 1-2 in the set and it was obviously still expensive), so I’m thinking Stan +2.5 in the first set if I can get it live less than -200 (it’s +1.5 +125 right now, so hopefully Djoker serves first and holds) and Djoker -2.5 in the fourth set if he leads 2 sets to 1. If Stan is somehow up 2 sets to 1, then all fourth and fifth sets are off.
Meds should keep rolling, right? I mean Koepfer can’t keep this up. I don’t see a bet here though. Medvedev hasn’t covered the -6.5 since the first round against Gunney and he’s played two pretty gruelling four sets in a row now (including a bizarre one on Friday night). If at any point I can get Meds live around -3.5 I’ll think about it. This would take Koepfer getting an early break or even winning the first set. So, we’ll see about that. One further thing to watch would be tiebreaks. These guys have both played a few so far and neither has lost one yet. That’s not overly surprising for Meds, as he has a very good track record. Koepfer though, is a .500 level tiebreak player, even at the Challenger level. So, if a set gets to 6-6, a live bet on Meds to win the set at anything less than about -250 should be worth it; I doubt Koepfer can keep winning them.
The same breakdown I just laid out for Stan applies to Goffin. He has a lousy 1-8 record against Federer but, if you isolate the last three, you have a Goffin win and two losses where he made it to a first set tiebreak. Fed has dropped two first sets here in New York this week and Goffin has won all three of his first sets. The first over 9.5 costs -150 and that interests me, especially considering books have caught on a bit to Fed’s new found desire to get a break and not look for a second. Fed is only -1.5, -175 to Goffin in the first set. Means Goffin is only +1.5, +125 and that isn’t enticing enough. A 6-4 or 7-5 Fed win costs me the Goffin +1.5 but pays off the over. I’ll take that bait.
ADM is one of the two outrights I have left. I didn’t expect it to be Dimitrov in the fourth round but, I’m happy with this outcome. I don’t want to have a bet here as I’ll just be watching to see if ADM gets in trouble and I’m required to jump in live with a hedge on Grigor.
Fed/Goffin 1st set o9.5, -150
Bunch of possible live spots