ATP Tennis April 17 Monte Carlo Day 3

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 8.31.54 PM.png

Jean Van De Velde lost to Marco Cecchinato in the most season defining way for me. Fuck Sakes man. 6-0,5-3 and serving for the match…. he won a TOTAL of THREE more games. Just an unreal collapse in a six week period of them for me.

Oh, that was supposed to be about a Swiss tennis player choking… but, you get the picture.

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 9.18.33 PM.png

Stan also cost me another small future. All hopes pinned on Thiem and his clay prowess.

Day 3

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 10.27.29 PM.png

I’m not interested in Fritz or Schwartzman. Both have a had rough runs lately. Fritz lost last week to Marcel Granollers… in Houston. That is both unimpressive and maybe tiring. Last year only one player coming from Houston made the second round in Monte Carlo and no one made the third. It was a similar story in 2017 when two players coming from Houston made the second round in Monte Carlo but, neither made the third. Furthermore, since winning Newport Beach in February, Taylor Fritz has lost all four completed matches he has played - he won yesterday against Tsonga when Tsonga retired in the second set, obviously compromised. For Schwartzman’s part, the only match he has won comfortably on clay was against a poor ARV in Buenes Aires. Every other match has either gone three or been a loss. I have no idea how DSS is -600. If you wanted to play this, I would highly suggest Fritz or the over.

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 10.28.40 PM.png

Medvedev has two career wins on clay. I didn’t watch the match with Sousa and I really have no idea how Medvedev could not only beat Sousa but destroy him. That result makes me nervous about fading Medvedev again, even with a +200 number on Albot. Albot also isn’t stellar on clay. He is a career .400 on the surface and list of impressive wins on clay includes… Andreas Seppi? Federico Delbonis? Both these guys have less than stellar hold/break numbers on clay and I can’t get behind either guy. Much like Fritz, I feel like it’s Albot at +200 or pass.

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 10.44.30 PM.png

This is not quite the scene of Tsitsipas’ breakout but it’s not far off. He did dispatch of Shapo here last year before losing a tight one to Goffin. He has pretty phenomenal clay stats, be it career winning percentage or hold/break numbers. Tsitty has also beaten Kukushkin all three times they have played, including the one time they played on clay. Kukushkin eased past Chardy in round one and all three matches with Tsitsipas have been pretty tight so, maybe the Kazak keeps it close. But, I am expecting big things from Tsitty this week. After a poor showing in Indian Wells Tsitty did alright in Miami. Now rested up and with a little better form I imagine he’ll get around Kuku. I have not had much luck with bigger spreads lately so, I’ll look to parlay this.

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 11.00.33 PM.png

I have an outright on Thiem and betting on outrights day to day hasn’t worked out so well this week. Thiem had a small advantage on clay over Klizan last year in hold/break numbers but, still dropped a match to him in Kitzbuhel. Klizan fought through a decent challenge in round one, coming back from a break down in each set. Klizan is no slouch on clay and is obviously already acclimatized to the conditions in Monte Carlo. Thiem doesn’t have overwhelming success here so, I was more basing my outright on his rather easy potential path. This will be a stiff test and I don’t want to be involved. If anything, like Fritz and Albot, I would take the big dog money and, expecting lots of breaks, look to trade out with a cheap Thiem at some point. Pass for me.

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 11.41.14 PM.png

Lajovic had an abbreviated trip to South America were he played two matches, lost them both handily and aborted the Golden Swing. This is Goffin’s first match on clay in 2019. It’s arguably both of their’s best surface so I expect this to be a tighter match than it presents based on ranking and name recognition. Goffin seems a shaky favorite to me given his recent losses to Krajinovic, Caruso and Tiafoe. The hold/breaks stats in 2018 also don’t show much separation - definitely not enough to support Goffin at -400. Pass.

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 11.48.31 PM.png

These stats are way too close here to dictate Fucsovics at -225. Flat out. As mentioned above, though, there is almost no history of players coming from Houston making a run at Monte Carlo. My detailed notes go back to 2015 and only one player has made the third round after playing Houston - Benoit Paire in 2016. I don’t want to be basing any theories on Benoit Paire. I like backing Norrie on clay, I did yesterday, and he cruised. I would back him here as a decent sized dog but, travel fatigue does worry me. I’ll avoid this.

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 11.55.49 PM.png

Nishikori’s clay stats are surprising… only above average, as opposed to elite, like some of his contemporaries in the top 10. Nishikori is trailing Djoker, Nadal, Tsitty, Goffin, Zverev, Thiem, DSS, and Coric in hold/break numbers. Which puts Nishikori in a category with Wawrinka as someone who routinely outperforms his stats - proof being his over .700 winning percentage on the surface. I expect Nishikori to get through PHH with relative ease despite how tight their two hard court matches were but, the price is too high for me and Kei’s recent struggles with Lajovic and Hurkacz make me want to stay away.

Screen Shot 2019-04-17 at 12.02.16 AM.png

LOLOLOL. You couldn’t pay me to bet on this match.
For what it’s worth, Simon has beaten Fog an amazing five times and all five were on clay. Now, they were all quite long ago but, usually when a head-to-head gets that lopsided, it’s for a reason.

Screen Shot 2019-04-17 at 12.05.28 AM.png

When is the last time FAA successfully served out a set? It certainly didn’t happen yesterday against Londero and it didn’t happen in either set against Isner. Zverev is not one to let that go unpunished. Additionally, while FAA is dominating on clay, with a final and a quarter-final during the Golden Swing, and a hold/break number well over 100%, Zverev would also consider clay his best surface. This is right when Zverev starts to heat up. I think it’s say to safe he was looking ahead to Monte Carlo last week in his loss to Munar and AZ’s hold/break stats easily stack up with FAA’s. I’ll parlay this moneyline as it seems overly cheap.

Screen Shot 2019-04-17 at 12.14.03 AM.png

I don’t bet Dimitrov on clay after Istanbul (never forgive, never forget). Struff has beaten him on the surface before and Struff isn’t half bad on the red stuff. His hold/break numbers line up well with Dimitrov’s and the price reflects that. It’s the German or pass here.

Screen Shot 2019-04-17 at 12.16.37 AM.png

How healthy is Rafa? We get to find out today! If he is 100% or even close to it, this should be a comfortable blowout. As is the case with most Spaniards, RBA suffers from some sort of Rafa worship/fear. They’ve played twice, and RBA is no slouch (a consistent top 20 guy with numerous tour titles), both matches were on clay and the scorelines were 61,62,62,63,64. If Rafa is healthy he covers the -5.5 with ease. If he’s not, well, that’d be great for Thiem…

Tsitty/Zverev ml, -125

Good luck