Exec Summary: It’s important for next year if they face this same team to know they at least got one at home so the Cavs give us their most complete effort of the playoffs and manage to eek out a 2-point win 114–112. Not much else to say except this Warriors team peaked at the right time and has a roster that is more talented than any constructed to this point in the history of the Association.
So the regular season was up and down. Most nights put together a 5-play card with a mix of spreads and totals with an average juice of -110. Generally took off Sundays and had a little hiatus back in November but playing consistently throughout the season was a full on grind. In total after 604 plays, finished with 309 wins, 284 loses and 11 pushes for a net -3.4 units. Here’s a nice visual aid of the highs and the lows:
Peaked at +19.1u about a week before the All-Star Break but then went into a free-fall the Wednesday and Thursday pre-break. Didn’t snap the cold streak until post-St Patty’s Day, officially bottomed out at -10.6 units. Despite posting plays on 118 days, only got swept twice (once in December and once in February) and only managed to sweep three times. Best card I posted all season was February 9th, picked 5 NBA winners on a night with 5 games and split a pair of high profile college plays:
In general, overs were the cash cow hitting at 59% of over plays while under plays were atrocious hitting only 47%. No significant bias on the favs or dogs with both coming in around 52%.
The playoffs went extremely well until they didn’t, aside from the Cavs ML tonight finished the playoffs 83–83–0 for +18.9 units. If you learn nothing else from this post, sell the juice in the NBA playoffs and look for alt spreads when you identify your edge. Following that recipe you can hit 50% of your plays and laugh all the way to the bank. The full list of plays is posted here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fNLaqceIohND5NNZqmlEXD6ka1Yog3sLGxi7r2b4pDc/edit?usp=sharing
The progress of the playoff earnings shown here for visual reference, never went into the red and topped out at +29.45u. It’s unbelievable how good this looks if I filter out plays made on Celtics games.
Last funny story… all the plays were made at an offshore book that was funded using Bitcoin. If I skipped playing NBA entirely and let that BTC sit there between October and today, instead of cashing out a net +15u for the regular season and playoffs I would have had +475u. The entertainment was worth it though.
Cheers to the offseason and we’ll do it all again next year.