2018 Season Win Total Bets

There are plenty of arguments about whether or not you should tie up part of your bankroll with futures or win totals, and I can definitely see both sides.  That said, I will always make some plays on the teams that I think the market over or undervalues, plus, they're fun. 

Some like to hit these right away when they open in the late spring, and I can see the point of getting the earlier numbers, but truthfully I’m just not fully prepped at that point and not in a position to feel good about placing money on something I haven't looked into yet.  I guess it seems like a bit of a trade off to me: If you bet early, you might get a number before it’s moved by the market, but if you wait until August you have a much better picture of the team’s roster construction and can account for some camp injuries.

Anyways, this is where I'm at so far.  All bets are for an equal flat amount, I don't pay the juice.  I'll be following up in another article on other season long team futures/props.  

 

Buffalo under 5.5 wins (BetOnline -110)

Josh Allen looks like their best option at this point and will start his season facing three consecutive top ranked defenses (two on the road).  I don’t see a ton of great opportunities for wins outside of the Jets and Dolphins, and even if they do manage to get 3-4 wins in division I don’t see them sneaking 2-3 more out. 

Panthers under 8.5 wins (BetOnline +110)

I hate the hiring of Norv Turner and their insistence to be more of a running team when their best asset is a mobile quarterback with a big arm.  I think McCaffrey could be more effective as a receiving back and might break down if they try to feed him too much between the tackles.  The offensive line is going to be worse and the receiving corps will be questionable.  7-9 or 8-8 in the tough NFC feels about right.

Seahawks under 7.5 wins (Bookmaker -104)

Russell Wilson will single handedly win this team games, but I just don’t think he’ll be able to do it enough.  On offense they will most likely have a bottom five offensive line and lost Jimmy Graham to Green Bay.  With the continued downhill trajectory of the defense, I just don’t see them competing and might finally be headed towards a rebuild period after years of success.

Bears over 7 wins (5Dimes -112)

Mitch Trubisky was tragically misused by John Fox, and was still able to show some glimmers of greatness despite a bad O-Line and poor receiving corps.  With Matt Nagy at the helm and the addition of some WR help, I think this will be a big turnaround year in the Windy City.  I’d love to see them compete for a wild card, but in a tough NFC even a .500 season would be a nice result after a few years of irrelevance. 

Rams under 10 wins (5Dimes +105)

Vikings, Chargers, Eagles, Saints, Packers, 49ers (twice) as well as some rough patches (including a stretch of 3 straight road games).  This schedule is tough, and 10 feels like the ceiling here.  I think Goff takes a step back and the additions to the defense are being a bit overhyped.

Miami under 6.5 wins (BetOnline +120)

This is my lowest power ranked team, and if not for having the Jets and Bills in their division, I’d have a hard time finding 2-3 wins for them.  I’m tempted to play an alternate under, but I’ll save getting greedy for my parlay.

 

Speaking of… and since I felt like I took this seriously, I’d better throw in some degen shit so,

Fun Alternate Win Total Parlay 22/1:

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As always, good luck and obviously hit me up on Twitter at @AndyMSFW if you have any questions or want to tell me how good the Bills are going to be this season.