The unmatchable football mind @Suuma810 has been sharing his betting tips for the NFL and we figured why not put these in a permanent spot to reference for this season... follow Suuma on twitter for more gems:
NFL Betting Tip #1— suuma (@suuma810) June 12, 2018
When you aren't interested in the slightest to bet the SNF game by noon kickoff, you shouldn't bet on it later on. Don't let afternoon results dictate your betting behaviour in the evening.
NFL Betting Tip #2— suuma (@suuma810) June 20, 2018
“Overreaction Monday” is for real. Bettors tend to remember the most recent performances. In the NFL, that’s one game. But matchups and situations dictate new setups every week. Put recency bias aside and try to understand what a team is capable of playing.
NFL Betting Tip #3— suuma (@suuma810) July 1, 2018
On Sundays, during the final 30 minutes before game time, lines move like crazy. It's a natural market behaviour. There is NO correlation between "steam" moves and the actual outcome of a game. Don't be stupid to follow those moves.
NFL Betting Tip #4— suuma (@suuma810) July 6, 2018
Bettors love to buy points on key numbers 3 & 7 to "increase" their chance of winning. Most of the time the cost of buying negates that advantage for a -EV bet which hurts your ROI. Buying points is a math thing, not a feel-good thing. Try line shopping.
NFL Betting Tip #5— suuma (@suuma810) July 22, 2018
Try to avoid or fade the hype teams as much as you can. They are usually overpriced and have quite a psychological disadvantage when ESPN headlines hype them as the Invincibles.
NFL Betting Tip #6— suuma (@suuma810) August 1, 2018
Reverse Line Movement (RLM) is hogwash. People sell this concept based on untransparent numbers to find "sharp" action. RLM is just another market reaction & it doesn't predict the outcome of NFL games. Also, when you bet into RLM, you bet into a worse line.
NFL Betting Tip #7— suuma (@suuma810) August 16, 2018
Handicapping is different than fantasy football, CBs and ILBs can often matter as much or more than the skill position players you drafted in August. In '17, the markets didn't adjust for Lattimore & Crawley getting ruled out at LAR, but those were big losses.