During the break 11-5 +5.83 unit
Season to date 147-196-16 -34.89 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.94
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Sloane Stephens -1300 (1.08) vs Misaki Doi +700 (8,00) Total Games 18 Spread -/+ 6.5 games
Sloane should be the favorite, but this is kind of ridiculous. I have no interest in Doi, but I can’t lay such a big moneyline and spread. Under 18 games isn’t the worst look, but Stephens has been known to give up a set every now and then. Pass.
Sara Sorribes Tormo +125 (2,25) vs Alison Van Uytvanck -155 (1,65) Total Games 21
This will be an interesting clash of styles. Tormo is more of a true clay courter using her movement and ability to slide to keep rallies alive and create chances to hit winners. AVU relies more on a big serve and doesn’t have the best movement. Both have been solid this season on the dirt. I lean to the underdog, but she’s not at her best in Europe. Pass.
Jennifer Brady -225 (1,44) vs Ivana Jorovic +175 (2,75) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
This is a great price on Jorovic. Brady has been great this year, but her hold+break on clay is more or less the same as Jorovic’s. You’ll notice that most of that is driven by her hold % which is going to be hard to maintain in these slow conditions. Jorovic was much better on the dirt last year at the WTA level and lower levels. Neither is in good form, so it’s just a half unit play, but I love the value on Jorovic.
Polona Hercog -165 (1,61) vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich +135 (2,35) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3 games
This should be a lot of fun. Clay is Hercog’s best surface. She won the title in Lugano earlier this year. Sasnovich hasn’t shown much form this year, but she has all the talent & skills needed to win in these conditions. The pricing looks about right to me. Hercog hasn’t had success in Paris, but she’s in better form and should advance.
Garbiñe Muguruza -335 (1,30) vs Taylor Townsend +265 (3,65) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games
Betting Muguruza matches is terrifying. She’s won this event and used to be one of the better clay players on tour. She should win this match, but who knows what she does. Townsend is actually pretty solid on the dirt. She doesn’t play often at the WTA, but does well at lower levels. She won a smaller event in Charleston this season. If we see Muguruseless then Townsend could win, but I can’t count on that. Pass.
Magdalena Rybarikova +135 (2,35) vs Johanna Larsson -165 (1,61) Total Games 21
Yuck. There’s lots of tennis. Watch or bet on something else.
Bernarda Pera -175 (1,57) vs Kateryna Kozlova +145 (2,45) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3 games
Kozlova has been great this year, but Pera lives for the slow clay. Bernarda is coming off a title at lower level event in which she didn’t lose a set. As good as Kozlova’s numbers look, be sure to compare the average rank faced. She’s not used to playing at this level. Pera should win, but this pricing is right.
Venus Williams +185 (2,85) vs Elina Svitolina -235 (1,43) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games
This is going to be ugly. Venus’ movement this season could be compared to that of Frankenstein. Regardless, she keeps winning matches. It’s a testament to the value of mental fortitude, but on the clay any reasonably talented player should be able to take advantage of her lack of agility. Elina Svitolina is much more than reasonably talented, but we don’t how healthy she is. I’ll be watching closely to see if Elina is healthy, but I won’t be placing any wagers prematch. Pass.
Belinda Bencic -1560 (1,06) vs Jessika Ponchet +810 (9,10) Total Games 17.5 Spread -/+ 6.5 games
Bencic is great and she’s going to win this match, but there’s no way I can touch such an expensive price. Pass.
Laura Seigemund -270 (1,37) vs Sofya Zhuk +220 (3,20) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
There once was a Laura Seigemund that was an incredible clay player. She used great movement and craftiness to beat her opponents. Hopefully she shows in Paris and playing in this match, but there’s been no sign of her all season. I would love to back the dog, but Zhuk just doesn’t have the results on clay yet to get me excited. Pass.
Angelique Kerber -415 (1,24) vs Anastasia Potapova +325 (4,25) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
Kerber is the better player and should be the favorite here, but I’m not sure she should be such a big favorite. She did make a run to the quarterfinals in Roland Garros last year with wins over Kiki Bertens & Caroline Garcia along the way, but in general, she prefers fast surfaces. Potapova is only 18 years old, but has a tremendous amount of talent. She probably loses this match, but there is a very realistic scenario where Potapova plays at a high level and Kerber is unable to find her legs on the slow surface. +325 (4,25) has an implied probability of 23.5% and I think there’s at least a 33% she Potapova steals the win. I have no interest in the spread, because if Kerber wins it could easily be 6-4 6-2 or better. I’m going to put a small bet, a quarter unit, on the Potapova moneyline.
Yafan Wang +670 (7,70) vs Marketa Vondrousova -1070 (1,09) Total Games 18.5 Spread +/- 6 games
Vondrousova is amazing. She’s going to win this match, but I have no interest in this pricing. Laying the 6 games isn’t the worst idea, but I’m just not about that life. Maybe an under, but probably not. Pass.
Petra Martic -295 (1,34) vs Ons Jabeur +245 (3,45) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
Martic has been excellent this season and is very comfortable on clay. Jabeur has only played 2 matches since March and struggles with her health in general. Martic is a fine parlay piece. She should be a bigger favorite, so hopefully I find a partner.
Fiona Ferro +315 (4,15) vs Kristina Mladenovic -405 (1,25) Total Games 19 Spread +/- 5 games
2 Frenchwomen meet in Paris which means this match will be well attended. Mladenovic is playing at an absurdly high level. Sacha Bajin has gotten a ton of credit, but probably deserves even more for what he’s done to Kiki’s game. Ferro is very comfortable on clay, but doesn’t have a lot of experience at this level. I wouldn’t mind a bet on Ferro, but I’m going to pass.
Svetlana Kuznetsova -265 (1,38) vs Kristina Kucova +215 (3,15) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/ 4 games
Kuznetsova will continue her comeback season in Paris. She’s made the quarterfinals here a few times and has played well on clay this season. I’m not sure she’s back to her best level, but she should win this much without any trouble. Kucova does not like the clay, but the pricing is just about right. Under 20.5 games is intriguing, but I want to wait and see how Kuz looks. I’ll pass.
Madison Brengle +730 (8,30) vs Karolina Pliskova -1480 (1,07) Total Games 18 Spread +/- 6.5 games
Another huge favorite who probably deserves the price, but won’t see any action from me. Pass.
Half unit – Jorovic +175 (2,75)
Quarter unit – Potapova +325 (4,25)